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Pattern December - Deal or No Deal?

Storm5 said:
No they don’t . People keep acting like it’s SSW or bust and that’s just not how it works .


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I meant it sarcastically but I agree. In part because even if there is SSW there is no guarantee that we benefit. It could be Europe or the mountain west.


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Storm5 said:
No they don’t . People keep acting like it’s SSW or bust and that’s just not how it works .


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Yeah even if we don't get the ssw, we have the mjo and Nino climo to eventually get us our -epo and +pna.

No ssw = darn good in the game pattern mid Jan to Feb , with -epo and stj.
Ssw = gold smack yo mamma pattern, buy a snowblower end of January -nao/-ao/-epo/+pna.
 
Or no ssw but -epo and active stj = a feild goal
Ssw with all other decent to good telleconections = touchdown with 2 point conversion
 
RollTide18 said:
Can anyone explain the bathtub sloshing thing from JB? I heard it years ago but I don’t understand what I means.
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I’ll be glad too! It’s simple, when it’s warm over the US for long periods of time in the winter, he and others would say the cold air had to “ slosh” back form other side of the world , to counter all the warmth .
 
Tarheel1 said:
What were the effects on weather 2-3 weeks down the line? Did we always get a colder pattern in the US and or SE? Was the 2009/10 SSW event , the kickstart to that awesome, snowy pattern?
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Mack, sorry for the delay in responding. Very mixed results:

- 1/09: No, this had nothing to do with the great winter of 09-10 as it was the prior winter. But the Feb AO did go modestly negative and then there was the big SE 3/1/09 bowling ball snowstorm though the daily AO's had switched back to + by then.

- 12/01: already had strong -AO during the late Dec SSW, which was immediately followed by the 1/2-3 major SE US snow. Coincidence since no multiweek lag?

- 12/98: +AO dominated winter 98-99. No evidence of help from SSW

- 1/92: The only El Nino winter of the 5. -AO that winter mainly only right at the time of the SSW. Otherwise +AO. Major snow ATL and vicinity just as the SSW was ending. Coincidence since no lag?

- 1/85: strong -AO already occurring at the time of the early Jan SSW. But then -AO got even stronger to in or near record territory 1/17-21 as the cold wave of the century hit many in the SE. Strong -AO remained for the next 30 days.

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Edit: The SSW centered near 12/29-30 still looks very strong (strongest at least since 1/09) on the 12Z EPS.
 
GaWx said:
Mack, sorry for the delay in responding. Very mixed results:

- 1/09: No, this had nothing to do with the great winter of 09-10 as it was the prior winter. But the Feb AO did go modestly negative and then there was the big SE 3/1/09 bowling ball snowstorm though the daily AO's had switched back to + by then.

- 12/01: already had strong -AO during the late Dec SSW, which was immediately followed by the 1/2-3 major SE US snow. Coincidence since no multiweek lag?

- 12/98: +AO dominated winter 98-99. No evidence of help from SSW

- 1/92: The only El Nino winter of the 5. -AO that winter mainly only right at the time of the SSW. Otherwise +AO. Major snow ATL and vicinity just as the SSW was ending. Coincidence since no lag?

- 1/85: strong -AO already occurring at the time of the early Jan SSW. But then -AO got even stronger to in or near record territory 1/17-21 as the cold wave of the century hit many in the SE. Strong -AO remained for the next 30 days.

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Edit: The SSW centered near 12/29-30 still looks very strong (strongest at least since 1/09) on the 12Z EPS.
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Thanks, Larry! ;)
 
It has been mentioned before that there could be CAD setting up around the 27th/28th ahead of the system that will be west of the southeastern states, tracking northeastward. I was just looking over the 12z Euro and it shows a massive 1044mb high off to the northeast. Euro shows frozen precip for some in the CAD areas. But mostly a very cold rain for most. This can change, especially with a massive 1044mb high off to the northeast. If you haven't looked at that on the Euro, you should, strong CAD signature.
 
RollTide18 said:
Can anyone explain the bathtub sloshing thing from JB? I heard it years ago but I don’t understand what I means.
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I wonder if that set up Goofy is showing early in the weekend could push some flurries all the way down to you, if there's enough moisture left. It's cranking right up and dragging the Oline around behind it. I've seen it do that putting a swath from central Ala up the mtns. Get that tight gradient, and the cold air in a comma getting pulled in behind. Be cool to see some flurries.
I was doing an art show in Montgomery mall in the ..I don't remember, early 80's probably, and a gulf low pulled thru with heavy rain as I was loading up to leave Atl. , and as I was getting the last pieces in, it turned to snow, and flash froze all the way down to the mall. But much worse on the west side of the hills, lol. Traffic to Mongomery could get thru, but going to Atl, jack knifed tractor trailers on all the hills. Amazing, but that kind of stuff can happen when they get wound up tight and pull in a select area of super cold air.
 
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If I was in eastern nc, id watch to see how much CAPE develops later tomorrow, this setup Is very similar to March 27 2009 and it only took 250 jkg for low topped, tornado producing supercells to develop along with 50kt+ of shear and sfc-3km helicity of 150 m2/s2, this setup Is identical with a closed ULL
 
Kylo said:
Table major mid-winter for SSW. For nino’s it’s worked out more times than not. Not counting super nino only really dud is 07. And that winter had a solid pattern for February, just didn’t produce. Didn’t go back past mid 80’s.

2010, 2007, 2004, 2003, 1988, 1987

https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/csd/groups/csd8/sswcompendium/majorevents.html
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We did get a storm right at the beginning of February in NC, it was a small event yes but it's forever ingrained in my memory because it's the one time it snowed here and I had to go to school for it. I was actually still in elementary school at the time, and Cumberland County decided to not close and it made a lot of people angry as they had to drive in the snow which not only stuck to the ground but the roads. Picked up about 1" where I was at before it changed over to sleet and then rain just after 9-910am. Our teacher was going to let us play football outside in the snow and I would have done that if the changeover would have waited another 15 minutes or so :mad:.
February 1 2007 NC Snowmap.gif
 
Tarheel1 said:
I’m just keeping it real for my homies, I keep seeing 02/03 winter as an analog, and it sucked in the Upstate, the early Dec ice storm was the only wintry event we had!
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It wasn’t much good here either. We got cold but only picked up about an inch from a random clipper.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
If I was in eastern nc, id watch to see how much CAPE develops later tomorrow, this setup Is very similar to March 27 2009 and it only took 250 jkg for low topped, tornado producing supercells to develop along with 50kt+ of shear and sfc-3km helicity of 150 m2/s2, this setup Is identical with a closed ULL
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Yeah these look like supercells to me

5e88f7e8e08b1e0304fe8efa7af96775.jpg



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The 0Z EPS remains very strong with the SSW peaking near 12/28-31. Per models at 10 mb within 60-90N, it should cool back some the next two days or so but then warm sharply at least for a solid week til the last days of Dec. Going to be a lot of fun to follow and see if we can get the rare brown (+28 to +32 anomalies) and maybe even the very rare gray (+32+) at 10 mb. If we see brown at 10 mb, it would be the first time at that level in 10 years! The EPS has been suggesting at least brown and quite possibly even gray. Follow the strat. here on the right side of this:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/produc...gif_files/time_pres_TEMP_ANOM_OND_NH_2018.png
 
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GaWx said:
The 0Z EPS remains very strong with the SSW peaking near 12/28-31. Per models at 10 mb within 60-90N, it should cool back some the next two days or so but then warm sharply at least for a solid week til the last days of Dec. Going to be a lot of fun to follow and see if we can get the rare brown (+28 to +32 anomalies) and maybe even the very rare gray (+32+) at 10 mb. If we see brown at 10 mb, it would be the first time in 10 years!The EPS has been suggesting at least brown and quite possibly even gray. Follow the strat. here on the right side of this:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/produc...gif_files/time_pres_TEMP_ANOM_OND_NH_2018.png
Click to expand...

10 years ??? Wow , awesome info thanks Larry !!


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Rain Cold said:
And CADs always trend colder!!
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True statement actually....

I say hold on ladies and gents I have a strong feeling January will not disappoint. Enjoy your Christmas, get some rest..... going to be some long fun nights starting in a couple of weeks
 
GaWx said:
The 0Z EPS remains very strong with the SSW peaking near 12/28-31. Per models at 10 mb within 60-90N, it should cool back some the next two days or so but then warm sharply at least for a solid week til the last days of Dec. Going to be a lot of fun to follow and see if we can get the rare brown (+28 to +32 anomalies) and maybe even the very rare gray (+32+) at 10 mb. If we see brown at 10 mb, it would be the first time at that level in 10 years! The EPS has been suggesting at least brown and quite possibly even gray. Follow the strat. here on the right side of this:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/produc...gif_files/time_pres_TEMP_ANOM_OND_NH_2018.png
Click to expand...

Inside day 10 on the op is nice.

fluxes.gif
 
With the GFS/GEFS for the potential SSW....the Op is not as aggressive as it's ensembles. The OP doesn't even have a major SSW where every member of it's ensemble does. Who knows...but the Euro and it looks like EPS does have a major and the GEPS looks to be fairly aggressive and has a split.

u_65N_10hpa.pngu_65N_10hpa_gefs.png
 
metwannabe said:
True statement actually....

I say hold on ladies and gents I have a strong feeling January will not disappoint. Enjoy your Christmas, get some rest..... going to be some long fun nights starting in a couple of weeks
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Even the CFS looks really good. Though it was awful for November. It does look like it will get Dec correct.

JMA seasonal for weeks 3-4 look like this too.

Screen Shot 2018-12-20 at 8.51.27 AM.png
 
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