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Pattern December - Deal or No Deal?

After examining the 0Z EPS maps closely, it appears to me that IF it were to verify that the 60-90 N 10 mb warming could very well exceed +30 C and get as high as ~+32 to +34 C at the peak 12/29-30! That would easily make it the strongest at 10 mb since at least the 1/09 SSW! Going back to when these records start in 1979, the only comparable SSWs (say +28+) at 10 mb would be 1/09 (+34), 12/01 (+30), 12/98 (+30), 1/92 (+32), and the great 1/85 (+28). The warmest since 2009 has only been ~+21. So, this is looking to be a really big deal vs recent history. After cooling over the next couple of days to a slight negative anomaly, the warming is forecast to start by 12/23.
 
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GaWx said:
After examining the 0Z EPS maps closely, it appears to me that IF it were to verify that the 60-90 N 10 mb warming could very well exceed +30 C and get as high as ~+32 to +34 C at the peak 12/29-30! That would easily make it the strongest at 10 mb since at least the 1/09 SSW! Going back to when these records start in 1979, the only comparable SSWs (say +28+) at 10 mb would be 1/09 (+34), 12/01 (+30), 12/98 (+30), 1/92 (+32), and the great 1/85 (+28). The warmest since 2009 has only been ~+21. So, this is looking to be a really big deal vs recent history. After cooling over the next couple of days to a slight negative anomaly, the warming is forecast to start by 12/23.
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What were the effects on weather 2-3 weeks down the line? Did we always get a colder pattern in the US and or SE? Was the 2009/10 SSW event , the kickstart to that awesome, snowy pattern?
 
Hey guys not sure where to put this so it can be moved if necessary.. Please keep my hometown of Port Orchard in your thoughts and prayers over the holidays as the tornado devastated an entire neighborhood literally right behind my parents house.. Parents and brother are fine able to come back home after a gas leak but still without power. A lot not so lucky. Unlike us here in the South we prepare for the effects of a major earthquake up there so the response for the Tornado while adequate wasn’t what it would be like down here. Still very unsure how this went unwarned because we were monitoring rotation over at #WAWX for a good 10-15 minutes before it hit and thought at least a Severe Thunderstorm Warning was due..
 
SnowNiner said:
So, you guys trying to make me think this whole SSW thing is real this time huh? Not going to work.

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Great idea! 2-3 weeks after it happens, you’ll hear about record cold in London and Paris, and snow in Jerusalem, why we are still looking for that cold pattern! :(
 
DadOfJax said:
I, for one, will be glad when the GFS is discontinued. There is a reason for it....the model is almost as clueless as the people who keep posting its 4 day torch output.
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Every global model is showing AN temps at this time frame. Maybe we should get rid of the CMC EURO and FV3 as well? Many of us will see upper 60’s to 70’s for a short time frame. It’s not the end of the world, Dad.
 
Tarheel1 said:
Great idea! 2-3 weeks after it happens, you’ll hear about record cold in London and Paris, and snow in Jerusalem, why we are still looking for that cold pattern! :(
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MJO 8, 2, and 1 can’t run forever. I think by mid January it will finally be cold enough to shunt our STJ pipeline into Honduras. Can’t wait ??
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
MJO 8, 2, and 1 can’t run forever. I think by mid January it will finally be cold enough to shunt our STJ pipeline into Honduras. Can’t wait ??
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What happens to the board when Montgomery, Macon, Augusta, and Columbia gets a raging winter storm while Raleigh, Atlanta, Greenville, and Birmingham get nothing?
 
RollTide18 said:
What happens to the board when Montgomery, Macon, Augusta, and Columbia gets a raging winter storm while Raleigh, Atlanta, Greenville, and Birmingham get nothing?
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It’s been a while. We’re actually overdue for an event like that. Columbia is only an hour from my house so I may just have to ride to Rush’s for a cheeseburger and check out the snow
 
Storm5 said:
It’s happened before


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
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Yup, 1973 and 2010

Feb1973SnowfallAccum.png
 
RollTide18 said:
What happens to the board when Montgomery, Macon, Augusta, and Columbia gets a raging winter storm while Raleigh, Atlanta, Greenville, and Birmingham get nothing?
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Columbia is further north than Atlanta so im sure if those deep south cities got snow, Atlanta would too.
 
RollTide18 said:
What happens to the board when Montgomery, Macon, Augusta, and Columbia gets a raging winter storm while Raleigh, Atlanta, Greenville, and Birmingham get nothing?
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January 2011...Raleigh got miller B'd. I could go on and on for Raleigh with near misses to our south, east, west and north.

map_btd.png
 
Tarheel1 said:
Great idea! 2-3 weeks after it happens, you’ll hear about record cold in London and Paris, and snow in Jerusalem, why we are still looking for that cold pattern! :(
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Nah, come 3 weeks we'd feel the effects....if it's real. I'm just not there yet. This event is supposed to happen 10+ days away. I don't believe a 10 day storm is going to happen, so I'm dubious a 10 day strat split is going to happen. Apples and oranges probably I know, but I'd like to see this event get closer and closer in time next week before I feel confident in it happening. Then yes, about 3 weeks things would probably get pretty cold and stormy.
 
All four GFS runs are pretty much a disaster. Haven't seen the GEFS or EPS. I'm sure they smooth out the disaster and make it only look like a disas.

Anyway, it will finally be nice when we start to see some good patterns start showing up again. This is boring.
 
Rain Cold said:
All four GFS runs are pretty much a disaster. Haven't seen the GEFS or EPS. I'm sure they smooth out the disaster and make it only look like a disas.

Anyway, it will finally be nice when we start to see some good patterns start showing up again. This is boring.
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Both bring in the SER for a decent duration. Probably going to be our patter for the end of the month into early January before it erodes and we get a better pattern.
 
Rain Cold said:
All four GFS runs are pretty much a disaster. Haven't seen the GEFS or EPS. I'm sure they smooth out the disaster and make it only look like a disaster.

Anyway, it will finally be nice when we start to see some good patterns start showing up again. This is boring.
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Seeing the MJO where it is, I'm not even really looking closely at the models anymore. I look at 384 GEFS once and say yep, still turrible. Hopefully like Kylo said after the holiday next week things will start coming into view. We're simply in a timeout.

We're in a high risk high reward set up here folks. Things look really bad right now, but maybe they could be really good in 3 weeks. But will they? I'm scared. lol.
 
SnowNiner said:
Seeing the MJO where it is, I'm not even really looking closely at the models anymore. I look at 384 GEFS once and say yep, still turrible. Hopefully like Kylo said after the holiday next week things will start coming into view. We're simply in a timeout.

We're in a high risk high reward set up here folks. Things look really bad right now, but maybe they could be really good in 3 weeks. But will they? I'm scared. lol.
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Feels more like ISS than a time out. Not that I would know about such things... :cool:
 
Anyone know what the CMC is smoking??? Has some weird temps and 0Z had a weird system on Christmas.
The GFS and FV3 seems to have a decent low 50s to upper 40s for highs Christmas day and the European has upper 50s for highs, and is way warmer than the others.
 
Tarheel1 said:
B Rad not chasing unicorns or drinking the kool aid!!View attachment 9317
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Ok, here's my thing with Brad P. He used to be called Brad Panicovich, anybody remember that? He used to be a weenie and overhype things and put everybody in a panic. He's gotten called out through the years and it seems he's now the opposite and poo poos every call for snow and cold in the Carolinas until it's starring him right in the face. I get it, he's overcorrecting. Just my opinion.

But that right there is an oversimplification as I've ever seen it. He's obviously heard of the SSW threat and it's being talked about in his twitterverse. If it does end up happening it will get cold and stormy eventually. Many, many atmospheric meteorologists are saying that yes it's possible this warming may create N. American blocking in January and turn the east colder stormier. For him to poo poo it and say, nope warm.... seems to be classic new Brad P.
 
ForsythSnow said:
Anyone know what the CMC is smoking??? Has some weird temps and 0Z had a weird system on Christmas.
The GFS and FV3 seems to have a decent low 50s to upper 40s for highs Christmas day and the European has upper 50s for highs, and is way warmer than the others.
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Either way its ridiculously warm. 50s on Christmas Day should be a crime !
 
Cmc is smoking that green stuff, past few model runs ive noticed it's showed temps nearly in the teens in nc then temps in the afternoon over 60, not impossible but pretty strange
 
ForsythSnow said:
Anyone know what the CMC is smoking??? Has some weird temps and 0Z had a weird system on Christmas.
The GFS and FV3 seems to have a decent low 50s to upper 40s for highs Christmas day and the European has upper 50s for highs, and is way warmer than the others.
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I'm not sure what's up with that. The models have a weak disturbance passing through, but they are having trouble with the temps. Heck, at this point we could see temps from the 30s to the 50s/60s lol.
 
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