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Pattern December - Deal or No Deal?

SnowNiner said:
Yeah saw that, it was odd. Hope is the low goes south of the cad
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The low is only 1008, so it is nearly just an overrunning storm and very weak, which is obviously good for us for winter weather. Hope it trends even weaker and more south.
 
Let's see what the EPS shows. They were all over the place last night with some snow really everywhere. One member had 16 inches across N GA while another had 10 or so in Columbia SC. If they remain that way, it goes to show that we have no clear solution and the range of solutions remains wide.
 
I know everyone loved the Euro run, but does anyone trust this 500mb look???
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Jon said:
Quite a bit of freezing rain. 0.8” for RDU. Wowza
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What would the counties like Pickens and Oconee sc be getting? Shows no ice so would it be mostly snow and sleet or rain?
 
Jon said:
I know everyone loved the Euro run, but does anyone trust this 500mb look???
e16014165adc2991547b8c7487bcb0ee.jpg

cff362ad88636b9aea9690d938ff03b2.jpg



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That’s fine as long as the southern stream wave stays juxtaposed directly to the south of the inflection point between the departing trough over the Maritimes & the ridge over the Canadian prairies & Rockies where surface MSLP will be highest. Slower southern s/w will allow the cold high to the north to leave
 
I gotta be honest, and it's why I know I'm not great at reading the 500 maps, but at first I thought the Euro run was a step back for everyone until I saw the pay maps posted. It was great though and I see the EPS is holding.
 
Jon said:
You’d think so! The Euro op has been all over the place, but the minute it lays down snow there’s 60 posts in an hour. Lol.


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It’s what we do. :).

But, the Euro op has clearly ticked south past few runs. GEFS and EPS both agree on the threat. Gives us something to do.
 
Webberweather53 said:
That’s fine as long as the southern stream wave stays juxtaposed directly to the south of the inflection point between the departing trough over the Maritimes & the ridge over the Canadian prairies & Rockies where surface MSLP will be highest. Slower southern s/w will allow the cold high to the north to leave
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Yeah it can work, but not the prettiest.

It probably looks nothing like it from a pattern standpoint, but this reminds me of Jan 6-7 2017 as best-case. Probably better analogs but my memory is short.
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Jon said:
Yeah it can work, but not the prettiest.

It probably looks nothing like it from a pattern standpoint, but this reminds me of Jan 6-7 2017 as best-case. Probably better analogs but my memory is short.
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This last Euro run brought back Feb 12-13 2014 flashbacks. Models busted pretty bad on the intensity of the front end frontogenetical snowband.
 
Jon said:
I know everyone loved the Euro run, but does anyone trust this 500mb look???
e16014165adc2991547b8c7487bcb0ee.jpg

cff362ad88636b9aea9690d938ff03b2.jpg



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Well, yes I thought the Run was odd overall. It had the energy coming off of California and then going to East into Colorado before it started going south. Then like rain cold said it went through east across South Carolina it was just a strange run. More interested in the European ensembles
 
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