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Pattern December - Deal or No Deal?

whatalife said:
If only it were January
c4b03d442ddb4458b2478c1e7027c75f.jpg



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Nice 1048 high! Move it 300 miles south.
 
Storm5 said:
I need Larry to “ interrupt this program “ for our weekly euro weeklies update

Larry oh Larry ???
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We interrupt this program for a further Euro weekly analysis to add to what has already been posted:

I agree with StoneMtn and Kylo that they look very nice and much better than the prior run. Weeks 3-5 are sig colder while week 6 is slightly colder than the prior run. It is like a reversal of the warmer of the prior run and shows how low the skill is with every week changing heavily. The next run could easily reverse again. However, based on the weakish Nino and assuming the MJO will likely be coming around into the colder phases by mid-Jan, I actually think this is on the right track though it will probably be a rather slow transition. Week 3, though colder than the prior run, is still warm in the E 1/3 of the US though not nearly as warm as week 2. Week 4 has the transition to near normal SE vs +3 prior run (warm start and cold end). Week 5 is the coldest of the 6 weeks with 3-4 colder than normal nearly entire SE vs +1 prior run. Week 6 averages 2 colder than normal SE vs -1 prior run.

Overall, it appears the change to colder for the SE US would occur ~1/9 and remain dominated by colder than normal through 1/31 and likely beyond. Precip once the cold gets here to be near normal, which is all one can ask for with a solid +PNA since they can be dry. In summary, a very encouraging run that suggests the MJO will progress nicely once into Jan.
We now return you to regular posting,
 
Quite a stretch of normal temps for ATL. I feel like recent years we’ve had stretches of above and below but few stretches of average.


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As I alluded to yesterday, phase 7 RMM MJO in January has been a pretty popular way to crank out a winter storm in NC during the 2000s. In fact, for the 13 trips the MJO has made to phase 7 in January during the 2000s, 11 of them have been met with at least one winter storm in NC.
All of the following storms below have occurred during phase 7 in January since 2000, I wouldn't be the least bit surprised this year decided to join the crowd when &/or if the MJO reaches phase 7 in the next several weeks.

January 2-3 2002
January 16-17 2003
January 9 2004
January 19 2005
January 20-21 2005
January 17 2008
January 19 2008
January 29-30 2010
January 22 2011
January 17-18 2013
January 28 2013
January 28-29 2014
January 13-14 2015
January 4 2016 (not mapped yet)

Fwiw, here's what MJO phase 7 composite looks like in January.
JanuaryPhase7gt1500mb.gif

During El Ninos, it's arguably just as amazing.
JanENMJOphase7gt1500mb.gif


Here it comes...

ECMF_phase_MANOM_51m_small (7).gif
 
Webberweather53 said:
As I alluded to yesterday, phase 7 RMM MJO in January has been a pretty popular way to crank out a winter storm in NC during the 2000s. In fact, for the 13 trips the MJO has made to phase 7 in January during the 2000s, 11 of them have been met with at least one winter storm in NC.
All of the following storms below have occurred during phase 7 in January since 2000, I wouldn't be the least bit surprised this year decided to join the crowd when &/or if the MJO reaches phase 7 in the next several weeks.

January 2-3 2002
January 16-17 2003
January 9 2004
January 19 2005
January 20-21 2005
January 17 2008
January 19 2008
January 29-30 2010
January 22 2011
January 17-18 2013
January 28 2013
January 28-29 2014
January 13-14 2015
January 4 2016 (not mapped yet)

Fwiw, here's what MJO phase 7 composite looks like in January.
View attachment 9278

During El Ninos, it's arguably just as amazing.
View attachment 9279


Here it comes...

View attachment 9280
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Impressive how close those dates are with MJO ph7 composites.

DF4704F3-B7C9-4919-89BE-337592423BBD.gif
 
Pretty good agreement that we suck out loud to end the month

94E806E7-0FB6-4B7E-9199-E5A65E39931F.png68EFCD2B-3A68-4DBC-AAFC-4A4D4D71AFC6.png
I wish there was more to talk about in the short term. Our time is coming. The lights will flip and the snow will fall again

Edit: Just saw the Euro weeklies. Beautiful. MCouldn’t draw it up any better
 
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Webberweather53 said:
As I alluded to yesterday, phase 7 RMM MJO in January has been a pretty popular way to crank out a winter storm in NC during the 2000s. In fact, for the 13 trips the MJO has made to phase 7 in January during the 2000s, 11 of them have been met with at least one winter storm in NC.
All of the following storms below have occurred during phase 7 in January since 2000, I wouldn't be the least bit surprised this year decided to join the crowd when &/or if the MJO reaches phase 7 in the next several weeks.

January 2-3 2002
January 16-17 2003
January 9 2004
January 19 2005
January 20-21 2005
January 17 2008
January 19 2008
January 29-30 2010
January 22 2011
January 17-18 2013
January 28 2013
January 28-29 2014
January 13-14 2015
January 4 2016 (not mapped yet)

Fwiw, here's what MJO phase 7 composite looks like in January.
View attachment 9278

During El Ninos, it's arguably just as amazing.
View attachment 9279


Here it comes...

View attachment 9280
Click to expand...
Webber, what is your resource for historic MJO data? I'd like to do a little research on my area.
 
MJO phase/amp for KATL major winter storms since MJO data available: (in = inside circle; out = outside circle)

1. ZR:
- 2/12-13/2014: 5 in
- 12/14-15/2005: 2-1 in
- 1/28-9/2005: 5 in
- 1/28-30/2000: 1-2 in
- 1/22-3/2000: 7-8 in
- 2/6-7/1979: 2 in

So all 6 major ZRs inside circle with phases 2 and 5 the most common

2. IP:
- 2/12-13/2014: 5 in
- 1/7/1988: 8 in
- 2/17-18/1979: 3 out/in

So, 2.5 of 3 major IP inside circle but very small sample

3. SN:
- 1/9-10/2011: 6-5 out
- 2/12/2010: 8 out
- 3/1/2009: 4 out
- 1/2-3/2002: 7 out
- 3/13/1993: 4 out
- 1/18/1992: 8 out
- 1/22/1987: 3 out
- 3/24/1983: 8 in
- 1/12-14/1982: 4 in

So, 7 of 9 major SN outside circle with phases 4 and 8 the most common
 
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Need to watch a possible cad setup after Christmas, normally we know how their undermodeled, won't be wintry precip the whole time tho with that type of track (cutter) but models have been gaining consistency with a damming event around the 27-29 time frame
 
GaWx said:
MJO phase/amp for KATL major winter storms since MJO data available: (in = inside circle; out = outside circle)

1. ZR:
- 2/12-13/2014: 5 in
- 12/14-15/2005: 2-1 in
- 1/28-9/2005: 5 in
- 1/28-30/2000: 1-2 in
- 1/22-3/2000: 7-8 in
- 2/6-7/1979: 2 in

So all 6 major ZRs inside circle with phases 2 and 5 the most common

2. IP:
- 2/12-13/2014: 5 in
- 1/7/1988: 8 in
- 2/17-18/1979: 3 out/in

So, 2.5 of 3 major IP inside circle but very small sample

3. SN:
- 1/9-10/2011: 6-5 out
- 2/12/2010: 8 out
- 3/1/09: 4 out
- 1/2-3/2002: 7 out
- 3/13/1993: 4 out
- 1/18/1992: 8 out
- 1/22/1987: 3 out
- 3/24/1983: 8 in
- 1/12-14/1982: 4 in

So, 7 of 9 major SN outside circle with phases 4 and 8 the most common
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Not a lot of Feb ice or snow events in there!? Just saying
 
Tarheel1 said:
Not a lot of Feb ice or snow events in there!? Just saying
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Yeah, Mack but fab Feb storms, which 100+ years ago were the most common winter storm, are finally trying to make a come back thanks to BBs like this one promoting them. 2010 and 2014 were fabs. Also, 2015 just missed a fab to the north. Also, keep in mind these are just the major fabs listed.
 
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I’ve also never thought the South could score with the weird phases of 4 and 5!? I guess you just get 8,1,and 2 pounded in your head for cold and snow phases! But the 4 and 5 phase storms, just at a glance, look to be March events? Maybe MJO phases 4/5 are colder for us as we head into spring? Good stuff as always @ GaWx!
 
Tarheel1 said:
I’ve also never thought the South could score with the weird phases of 4 and 5!? I guess you just get 8,1,and 2 pounded in your head for cold and snow phases! But the 4 and 5 phase storms, just at a glance, look to be March events? Maybe MJO phases 4/5 are colder for us as we head into spring? Good stuff as always @ GaWx!
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Thanks, Mack. If you need someone to discuss wx stats with on the cruise and even though it would be a huge sacrifice for me to have to take the trip, let me know and I may be able to work the trip in. But I'll need to have my own abacus as well as uninterrupted 24 hour internet access and the TV on TWC all the time. I know Jimmy wants to go but perhaps I'd be a better one to go since I'd very likely not miss a winter storm here. I wouldn't want Jimmy to miss a storm at home. :D:D:D

Back to being serious, I'd need to check March. But I will say that the MJO seems to have been more predictive of temps than individual ATL major storms.
 
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GaWx said:
Thanks, Mack. If you need someone to discuss wx stats with on the cruise and even though it would be a huge sacrifice for me to have to take the trip, let me know and I may be able to work the trip in. But I'll need to have my own abacus as well as uninterrupted 24 hour internet access and the TV on TWC all the time. I know Jimmy wants to go but perhaps I'd be a better one to go since I'd very likely not miss a winter storm here. I wouldn't want Jimmy to miss a storm at home. :D:D:D

Back to being serious, I'd need to check March. But I will say that the MJO seems to have been more predictive of temps than individual ATL major storms.
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Let me check on the cruise!? The sad thing I just realized is, the last 4-5 wintry “ events” I’ve had here, including the great Dec storm of last week, my temps were never below 33 degrees for the duration! Hard to get good events with temps like those!
 
Yowza... As noted earlier this past week, it usually takes about 2-3 weeks for the troposphere to respond to a sudden stratospheric warming event when they do occur. That would put us sometime around mid January to reap the benefits of this in terms of increased high-latitude tropospheric blocking (-AO/-NAO) which might be aptly timed w/ subseasonal tropical forcing as the MJO enters phase 7 around this time, which as I talked about yesterday has built up quite a reputation in producing wintry weather in the Carolinas during January. Mid-January certainly is starting to hold a little large-scale promise that something could appear on the horizon during that timeframe, we'll see how this evolves over the next few weeks.
 
I’m gonna need any snowstorms or ice storms to occur before Jan 26th or after Feb 1st, thanks!! :)
 
Webberweather53 said:
Yowza... As noted earlier this past week, it usually takes about 2-3 weeks for the troposphere to respond to a sudden stratospheric warming event when they do occur. That would put us sometime around mid January to reap the benefits of this in terms of increased high-latitude tropospheric blocking (-AO/-NAO) which might be aptly timed w/ subseasonal tropical forcing as the MJO enters phase 7 around this time, which as I talked about yesterday has built up quite a reputation in producing wintry weather in the Carolinas during January. Mid-January certainly is starting to hold a little large-scale promise that something could appear on the horizon during that timeframe, we'll see how this evolves over the next few weeks.
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Hmm, this seasonal period may be a blessing to get my firewood in order.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Yowza... As noted earlier this past week, it usually takes about 2-3 weeks for the troposphere to respond to a sudden stratospheric warming event when they do occur. That would put us sometime around mid January to reap the benefits of this in terms of increased high-latitude tropospheric blocking (-AO/-NAO) which might be aptly timed w/ subseasonal tropical forcing as the MJO enters phase 7 around this time, which as I talked about yesterday has built up quite a reputation in producing wintry weather in the Carolinas during January. Mid-January certainly is starting to hold a little large-scale promise that something could appear on the horizon during that timeframe, we'll see how this evolves over the next few weeks.
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I'm feeling pretty confident we're going to get back to our -EPO pattern in mid January. Nino climo and the MJO progression argues strongly for it. That along with an active southern jet is enough to be excited for late January/February. I'm still very guarded though about thinking the strat warming will do anything for us in the -NAO domain. On that graphic, the flux was very high in 2016 and did not cause a SSW. We'll see, but I've just played this record so many times, so much can go wrong or just not go at all. I'll believe we'll get the EURO weeklies -AO/-NAO pattern when I see it on the ensembles and it consistently is getting closer and closer in time. I hope so, that would be epic...but not on board with that until it shows itself to be real.
 
weatherfide said:
Well, played, sir. So this is not totally banter, FV3 is turning us much colder by the first of week of January. Is this an indication of the transition Webber is talking about or just error in the model?
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Once you get out in la la land, it's really hard to tell, just going by the operational run of a model (I assume you are talking about the 6z run, which at the end, does show cooler temps). Just by looping the model, it looks transient, looking at the 500 mb pattern. Nothing seems to be ready to lock in place.

I tend to view a lot of flip-flopping near the end of model cycles as an indication that the pattern is in flux. If you step back and make a couple of assumptions: The MJO will continue its progression, the Strat warming will take place and disturb/split the vortex, and Nino will continue to progress as expected, then we should expect to start seeing a more favorable pattern appear more frequently and exhibit some stability in the longer ranges of the operational models. The ensembles would be even better for picking up these trends. In fact, at longer, less reliable leads, the Euro Weeklies and the CFS are pretty excited about a better pattern down the line.

All that said, there are a lot of reasons to be optimistic about a period (and quite possibly, a lengthy period) of winter setting in mid-January. My experience tells me that these things tend to be a little slower to evolve than the consensus thinking suggests. But hopefully, that won't be the case this time. I don't like waiting, and I especially don't like seeing the bulk of January slip by without winter showing up in force.

The other side note is, we don't need a locked in favorable pattern to get snow, although we all know it helps. A couple of well-timed waves with a transient cold shot will do the trick. So, even though we have some time to kill, vigilance is still appropriate. :)
 
Not to distract from this excellent discussion, but shouldn't this either be discussed in the winter 2018-19 thread or else the January 2019 thread should be opened?
 
Today’s update on the strat. warming (far right of the chart) is very disappointing as I had expected to see further warming from the +4 to +8 of yesterday. Instead, it cooled:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/produc...gif_files/time_pres_TEMP_ANOM_OND_NH_2018.png

So far, this chart has shown no evidence of anything even close to a major SSW. The most impressive ones of past years have shown warmings over 30C within a week such as this one from Dec 2003 (see far right):
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/produc...gif_files/time_pres_TEMP_ANOM_ALL_NH_2003.gif

Hopefully, that initial slight warming of yesterday was just a preliminary to a big show coming up within a few days to match the timing of the graph Webb showed above. If not, this will be considered by me to be a huge dud.
 
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