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Pattern December - Deal or No Deal?

This will be us in February still waiting
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This must be Shane waiting on his snow amount he never got from the last storm.


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12Km NAM has the low(s) farther east. The trailing low goes over the OBX. Too bad it is the NAM and too bad the cold is just so far away. After another couple inches of water, I am worried about the wind early Sat.
 
3km shows weak instability Ahead of the ULL, also shows convective showers/elevated thunderstorms, if that was to verify, there will probably be some small hail/graupel in those showers due to very steep lapse rates, something interesting for areas that won't see a flake outa this
 
For those still holding out hope to see a flake or two
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We need to make a pact here and now that we will never discuss the possibility of tooth fairies or wrap around snow in this forum.


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Remember that it’s a waste of time tracking this because it’s not going to happen

That’s why I said for those who are still holding out hope. There are still those hoping to see a flake , hopefully they will get their wish .


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Alot of helicity, probably going to be low topped supercells/bows with that type of sounding, little to no lightning with these types of storms. Screenshot_20181218-220015.png
 
The 2002-03 is the favored analog thus far, right? I would take another January 16-17, 2003. In fact, give me a redux of January 16-17, 2003, and Duke can win the national title for all I care. :)
 
Some of the worst anomolies on Earth situated right on top of my house. Man I feel special. At least you don’t have to worry about 850’s cooperating when 2m temps are 45 degrees too warm. How do 75 degree ground temps affect the dendrite growth zone?A786BA8C-A232-4B37-8760-D9CDA5BB9403.png
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@Tarheel1 is this a snow sounding?
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Some of the worst anomolies on Earth situated right on top of my house. Man I feel special. At least you don’t have to worry about 850’s cooperating when 2m temps are 45 degrees too warm. How do 75 degree ground temps affect the dendrite growth zone?View attachment 9305
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@Tarheel1 is this a snow sounding?
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Can rates overcome 75 degree BL temps, I think so!! I love it when 85 is the dividing line between warm rain and thunderstorms!! That’s when we shine S of 85, and get the good stuff!
 
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