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Pattern December - Deal or No Deal?

SnowNiner said:
Well, yes I thought the Run was odd overall. It had the energy coming off of California and then going to East into Colorado before it started going south. Then like rain cold said it went through east across South Carolina it was just a strange run. More interested in the European ensembles
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Similar shortwave location, but more relative ridging imo.

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I’ll take a 2” EPS mean at this juncture even though my gut tells me I will be heartbroken just south of the I85 snow shield. I’ve seen this movie one too many times unfortunately. Hate to be a downer. Rain is always welcome here :)
 
Round Oak Weather- Zeb said:
Would this force the storm further south?
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Since the shortwave is coming out of Baja and isn’t riding down the ridge like a ski slope, it doesn’t matter that much here. The ridging matters probably due to the downstream effect on the confluence or high pressure location, as you have a ying-yang relationship there.


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Jimmy Hypocracy said:
I’ll take a 2” EPS mean at this juncture even though my gut tells me I will be heartbroken just south of the I85 snow shield. I’ve seen this movie one too many times unfortunately. Hate to be a downer. Rain is always welcome here :)
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You are a downer! I’ve had over 1” of rain today! Next Saturday, it won’t be rain, just QPF for ice accumulation! As long as I’m not expecting snow, I can accept the warm nose, and enjoy my ice! Just get me below 32 on the ground, then enjoy!
 
12z EPS, you can definitely see the wedge. As the low makes it's way off the coast, any back side moisture would change over to snow. Looks like some parts of NC (and far parts of upstate SC) may start off as a mix of snow/sleet, but changing to all snow, if this verified. For Northern GA and the majority of Upstate SC, I'd say ice at first, then maybe a snow/sleet mix towards the end of the event. Predicting p. types with CAD can be very difficult. Of course, we won't know who will be getting what exactly till the time frame is in 84hrs, or as the event is unfolding.
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Tarheel1 said:
You are a downer! I’ve had over 1” of rain today! Next Saturday, it won’t be rain, just QPF for ice accumulation! As long as I’m not expecting snow, I can accept the warm nose, and enjoy my ice! Just get me below 32 on the ground, then enjoy!
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Convincing. I love the enthusiasm.Jimmy is back on board!!
 
I wouldn't be surprised if we see the initial shortwave kick quicker and a back side piece come down .ie what Webb showing. Could maybe see a cutoff almost
 
WxWatch said:
12z EPS, you can definitely see the wedge. As the low makes it's way off the coast, any back side moisture would change over to snow. Looks like some parts of NC (and far parts of upstate SC) may start off as a mix of snow/sleet, but changing to all snow, if this verified. For Northern GA and the majority of Upstate SC, I'd say ice at first, then maybe a snow/sleet mix towards the end of the event. Predicting p. types with CAD can be very difficult. Of course, we won't know who will be getting what exactly till the time frame is in 84hrs, or as the event is unfolding.
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I’ve lived a lot of CAD events, and RARELY, if at all , do you go to snow after sleet/ZR has started. You may get a brief period of snow at onset, but once the warm nose is present, it’s there for good, Atleast in the Upstate. The only way to get back to snow is, to have an ULL or disturbance coming through the tail end of the event
 
Yep same thing here, like in feb 2014, went from heavy snow to freezing rain and sleet than a Ull went through dropping about 3 inches, was some of the heaviest snow I've ever seen to, storm total was 9.7 inches of snow with about 0.6 of ice
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Yep same thing here, like in feb 2014, went from heavy snow to freezing rain and sleet than a Ull went through dropping about 3 inches, was some of the heaviest snow I've ever seen to, storm total was 9.7 inches of snow with about 0.6 of ice
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I agree, I was in Charlotte when that ULL came through in 14. I’ve never seen it snow that hard in my life. Had to be 3 inch a hour rates at some points.
 
1037 high pressure in the plains is stronger vs the 12z at hour 126. Hopefully it will push this thing further south and keep it from cutting this run.
 
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