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Pattern December - Deal or No Deal?

Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said:
FV3 is interesting. Starts out as snow in NC CAD Zone. Then transitions to an ice storm in N.C. immediate CAD areas. Improvement for sure.
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Yeah, FV3 is horrible and a cutter that turns in to some Miller B transfer. Toss.

So far today, good EURO, great Canadian, good GEFS. On to the afternoon euro. Hope to see EURO correct even further south to match GEFS and its own ensembles.
 
GaStorm said:
I found an old post from Larry on December SN/IP. See below.
ATL over the last hundred years has averaged only 0.3" of SN/IP in Dec (0.1" 1st half and 0.2" 2nd half). That is only ~15% of its average seasonal total of ~2". Only 18 of the last 100 ATL Decembers have had measurable SN/IP.
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Thanks for that, GS! I was thinking more about zr. I have a feeling with warm fighting cold in early winter season that zr might be the more likely frozen precip in early Dec. Probably a mute point as the super cad seems to have returned to myth anyway, lol. But if I was betting on a big storm before Xmas I'd bet on z rain from a cad. Now super cad is another thing. T
 
You can tell the 12z GEFS is a good run. You can see the northern stream tapping in, cold SFC temps. are below freezing in NC. It will propably be colder across northern Georgia/eastern GA, upstate SC/midlands. Much like the 12z CMC with the placement of frozen precip.
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13 big dog ensembles for western nc, not bad but alot of that is probably sleet
 
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