All four GFS runs look pretty much the same at 384 as they do at 0. What a terrible and disgusting never-ending pattern we're stuck in. It's so awesome to waste an entire month of the winter.
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Brick Tamland
Guest
Not sure how December was wasted for 2/3 of NC with the storm last week.. You just have bad luck where you live.
Kylo
Member
Lol. Get back to me in late Jan when if it makes it inside a week.
I mean the period after that through mid-Jan. The December stuff was great, but that's over. Now, we've got one week in the books and the next two are swirling the drain. After that, who knows, but it isn't looking good till we get deeper into Jan. Sure, we know Nino climo and back loaded winters, et al, but it doesn't make it suck any less seeing a wall to wall sucky pattern for the next two weeks of prime winter season. And I'd say the same thing if I got 2 feet of snow already.
CR/RC,
I’m wondering if you’ve been hanging around the miserable trix too long. She/he may be rubbing off on you a little.
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Brick Tamland
Guest
Seems like a typical winter here to me. Looking at the long term pattern could be disheartening. but a lot of times we switch from a crappy pattern to a winter storm a week later.
SnowNiner
Member
Normally yeah, I'm really only looking at an 8 week period where I expect winter weather, January 1 through February 28. Losing 3-4 weeks to a crappy pattern really does suck. But this is not a normal year. MBY got a decent storm in December which is very unusual so it does moderate my disappointment a good bit. Honestly if I don't get another storm this year, I can't say this year sucked. I only expect one decent storm a year, or hope anyway. Sometimes we don't get that. So having one in my back pocket, I'm pretty comfortable waiting for late January for the chance of another storm, which would make this winter pretty great if I get one more (or two!). But yeah if I missed out on the December storm seeing the front half of January off the table would be very frustrating. Especially considering all the great outlooks we had for January.
Keep nino climo hope alive! It's really all we got. Because we know where all that strat stuff leads us...
Haha, I'm mostly trying to stay out of that stuff lately...mostly staying in the Econ thread. It's just that personally, I like to see some semblance of hope showing up in a somewhat reliable time frame. The strat stuff, analogs, antilogs, possible MJO progression 4 weeks out, etc. is just too far away. Not saying it won't come to fruition. It's just that we need to see some of these things show up at more reliable leads. I'm not bailing on winter by any stretch. But we've just X'd out one week. The marker is warming up for the current week and the next. So that's 3. Beyond that, it's murky, but you can usually add a week to work into a favorable pattern (at the minimum), so that's 4 and that's a month down the drain. I don't like it!!!!CR/RC,
I’m wondering if you’ve been hanging around the miserable trix too long. She/he may be rubbing off on you a little.
Storm5
Member
It’s that time of year when people go crazy and say things like maybe February it will turn around . It’s like clockwork every year
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Yep agreed.
Maybe by the end of Feb, we'll get the cold back on our side of the globe. Wait, did I say that out loud?
whatalife
Moderator
Maybe it will/maybe it won’t. This ain’t the NE. This is typical SE weather...
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The final 2 day total was 8.9". I don't think this winter cares about climo or RDU wouldn't have got a 8.9" storm before Christmas lol. I think RDU has a good shot of exceeding 20" for the season. Just my opinion. I officially forecast 14.7" back in October, but I think that'll be low most likely.
NoSnowATL
Member
More positive signals...
NoSnowATL
Member
And another one.
Definitely want to see it continue to build amplitude and truck along. It's a good signal to continue to see that.
Kylo
Member
Wow, didn’t know it was 8.9”. We will have a good chance to eclipse the 10” mark. I don’t think we have done that since 04.
Kylo
Member
ATLwxfan
Member
Or they are convinced that the models are underestimating the cold. Strong weenie move.
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For those who aren’t optimistic
about a drastically colder pattern change being likely in the first half of Jan, check this blog post I did 2 years ago on the various MJO phases’ correlation to the SE US temps in Jan of 1975-2014, which could be extended to apply to much of winter including late Dec:
https://blog.southernwx.com/2017/01...phase-inside-the-left-side-of-circle-coldest/
Concentrate on the diagram that shows that the warmest by far has been when the MJO was clearly outside the circle in phase 4 (+3) and especially outside the circle in phase 5 (+6). Now look at the current and forecasted MJO courtesy of the great site of @DaculaWeather as it shows we’re in strong phase 4 and are headed toward a long visit into strong phase 5 for the next 2 weeks or so:
http://www.daculaweather.com/4_mjo_phase_forecast.php#thumb
So, the upcoming warmth is about as well explained by the MJO as ever. This is textbook MJO related warmth! But the MJO will subsequently
move out of strong phase 5. Note on my blog diagram how much colder it has gotten as you leave outside the circle phase 5 to go anywhere including just into phase 6. Then look how much colder it has gotten on average, especially when it has rotated toward the weaker portion of the left side of the circle: -4 within weak phase 7 and -6 within weak phase 8 followed by a still cold -3 in weak phases 1-3! And remember that these are just averages as a good number of memorable extreme cold periods were included. When also considering we’re in a west based borderline weak/moderate Niño that followed La Niña and when considering past Euro seasonals (as well as the Pioneer lol), I feel confident we will be sitting pretty by no later than mid-Jan.
about a drastically colder pattern change being likely in the first half of Jan, check this blog post I did 2 years ago on the various MJO phases’ correlation to the SE US temps in Jan of 1975-2014, which could be extended to apply to much of winter including late Dec:
https://blog.southernwx.com/2017/01...phase-inside-the-left-side-of-circle-coldest/
Concentrate on the diagram that shows that the warmest by far has been when the MJO was clearly outside the circle in phase 4 (+3) and especially outside the circle in phase 5 (+6). Now look at the current and forecasted MJO courtesy of the great site of @DaculaWeather as it shows we’re in strong phase 4 and are headed toward a long visit into strong phase 5 for the next 2 weeks or so:
http://www.daculaweather.com/4_mjo_phase_forecast.php#thumb
So, the upcoming warmth is about as well explained by the MJO as ever. This is textbook MJO related warmth! But the MJO will subsequently
move out of strong phase 5. Note on my blog diagram how much colder it has gotten as you leave outside the circle phase 5 to go anywhere including just into phase 6. Then look how much colder it has gotten on average, especially when it has rotated toward the weaker portion of the left side of the circle: -4 within weak phase 7 and -6 within weak phase 8 followed by a still cold -3 in weak phases 1-3! And remember that these are just averages as a good number of memorable extreme cold periods were included. When also considering we’re in a west based borderline weak/moderate Niño that followed La Niña and when considering past Euro seasonals (as well as the Pioneer lol), I feel confident we will be sitting pretty by no later than mid-Jan.
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It's hilarious, isn't it? Forgetting that our forecasts aren't good enough to just think the next 6 weeks are a wash.
In other news, Christmas Day looks to be shaping up to be dry and seasonable across our area. And seasonable is a win.
ForsythSnow
Moderator
Lol yep. Usually they are the ones who jump off the cliff 4 days from a snowstorm and climb up for the good runs and jump back down for the bad ones. We are still early into the season so worrying won't do any good especially if it's over a week or two away, since models will change.
Correct me if I'm wrong, but the research that Webb, Larry and others, have presented on here suggested that typically nino winter's start off a blaze right? Heck I think December has been all good so far. Hell I call it a bonus??
Typically with a weak-to-moderate Nino we have a cool Nov, warmish Dec and then cold Jan/Feb.
packfan98
Moderator
SnowNiner
Member
Oh no he didn't...he just brought February 2004 legitimately into the discussion. Nobody better talk nuthin about my February 2004. I love the 2004. lol. It was a southern stream nino and yeah it was cold. If any year can do it I guess it would be this one. Hope so.
RollTide18
Member
I don’t know about the actual pattern but going back and looking at the temps for here in December 2009 and it’s very similar, started out a bit cold, then got warmed up to around average. We know how that winter ended up for us in the Deep South.
Finally, here comes the much advertised unicorn...uhhh.....I mean strat. warming:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/produc...gif_files/time_pres_TEMP_ANOM_OND_NH_2018.png
Note the yellows (+4 to +8) on the far right. But the question is how much warmer it will suddenly get. For it to be comparable with past major warmings, it will need to warm well into the reds and preferably into the brown (+28 to +32) within a week or so and better yet into the not shown gray (over +32). Thank goodness we don't have to rely on this unreliable item for cold to return as we already have the weakish (west based) Nino, which will be helped once the MJO rotates out to the left. But who knows? Maybe if this turns out to be very strong it will help get the -AO to return in earnest next month.
PS: One thing I read is that this is more of a reliable cold inducer in Europe than here.
Hee is an example of a very strong SSW from Dec of 2003 on far right of this chart: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/produc...gif_files/time_pres_TEMP_ANOM_ALL_NH_2003.gif
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/produc...gif_files/time_pres_TEMP_ANOM_OND_NH_2018.png
Note the yellows (+4 to +8) on the far right. But the question is how much warmer it will suddenly get. For it to be comparable with past major warmings, it will need to warm well into the reds and preferably into the brown (+28 to +32) within a week or so and better yet into the not shown gray (over +32). Thank goodness we don't have to rely on this unreliable item for cold to return as we already have the weakish (west based) Nino, which will be helped once the MJO rotates out to the left. But who knows? Maybe if this turns out to be very strong it will help get the -AO to return in earnest next month.
PS: One thing I read is that this is more of a reliable cold inducer in Europe than here.
Hee is an example of a very strong SSW from Dec of 2003 on far right of this chart: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/produc...gif_files/time_pres_TEMP_ANOM_ALL_NH_2003.gif
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pcbjr
Member
Beautiful day! Thanks!!!!
Looks like the MJO is progressing nicely tho.
Maybe some light at the very end of the FV3 tunnel. It's a long tunnel, though. Hopefully, it holds.
From Radiant this morning from a national standpoint:
"Warm Dec. 2nd Half Progressed Forward
The second half of December is shaping up to be an impressively warm one, with the current forecast of 408.4 GWHDDs for the Dec. 16-31 period ranking 8th-warmest since 1950. Whenever we see anomalous patterns such as this crop up in winter, the question often becomes whether such a pattern might carry on further through the season. Here we take a look at what the previous Top 15 warmest December 16-31 looked like pushed forward into the rest of winter. The composite of these fifteen years yields 1764 GWHDDs for the Jan-Feb period, colder than the 30-year normal (1731.2). Of these fifteen years, ten were above the 30-year normal for Jan-Feb including three in the Top 15 coldest (coldest is #5 1985), while five were below the 30-year normal including two of the Top 5 warmest (warmest is #4 2006). The smaller five-year subset of these years that featured a weak or moderate El Niño (2007, 1995, 2015, 1980, and 2003) yielded a higher 1818.8 GWHDD total for Jan-Feb, with four of the five yielding above normal GWHDDs. Among the weak/moderate El Niño cases, cold was most prevalent in February—the January composite for these years is 942.2 GWHDDs, warmer than the 30-year normal (952.1) while the February composite for these years is 876.6 GWHDDs, much colder than the 30-year normal (779.1) including four of the five ranking in the Top 12 coldest Februarys since 1950."
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My comments: Remember that Feb has 3 fewer days than Jan. So, 876.6 HDD in Feb would be comparable to 971 HDD if it were 31 days long like Jan. So, you essentially have a 971 Feb vs 942 Jan, and Feb is normally about 90 HDD warmer than Jan. Also, keep in mind that the first 1/3 of Jan may still be warm in the E US meaning the last 2/3 would likely be cold to balance it out.
The maps Radiant showed have all of the cold centered in the E 1/3 of the US with a warm western 1/3. So, the E US cold anomalies are much stronger than the national #s suggest. When considering warmth likely carrying over into early Jan in the E US, essentially Radiant is saying be prepared for a good chance for the freezer to dominate in the SE US much of ~1/10-2/28. We'll see! I already stated that I like the chances assuming the MJO will rotate to the left side sometime in the first half of next month, especially if weak then.
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That was a great winter
Jessy89
Member
That area of wintry weather for CAD areas is showing up on fv3 again. And that’s a strong 1040 high. Could trend colder
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Brick Tamland
Guest
Will the FV3 be the first to sniff out the next threat again?
I'm going to take this Radiant piece further and look at KATL as a proxy for the SE:
So, they said the 5 wk to mod Nino warm 12/16-31 analogs for Jan-Feb are 1980, 1995, 2003, 2007, and 2015. Here are the Jan/Feb KATL anomalies during those 5 years (no blowtorches though some slightly warmer than normal Jans) along with MJO:
Jans:
1980 +1.6: MJO neutral
1995 +3.0: MJO unfavorable
2003 -3.3: MJO favorable.. coldest 8 F!
2007 +2.8: MJO unfavorable
2015 -0.2: MJO neutral
Febs;
1980 -5.3: MJO favorable....1.7" SN
1995 -0.8: MJO unfavorable
2003 -0.8: MJO neutral
2007 -1.9: MJO neutral
2015 -6.8: MJO favorable....lots of wintry in frigid 2nd half just N of ATL
So, what's the common denominator for cold and potentially wintry? A favorable MJO! By far, the 3 coldest months were the bolded ones with favorable MJO dominating while the warmest had unfavorable. Where exactly was the MJO for these 3 coldest months?
- Feb of 1980 (green line):
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/mjo/graphics/archive/MJO_phase/198001.phase.90days.gif.small.gif
Note that the frigid and snowy part of the month was the first half, when the MJO was either inside or barely outside the circle in phases 7 and 8.
- Jan of 2003 (red line):
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/mjo/graphics/archive/MJO_phase/200301.phase.90days.gif.small.gif
Note that the coldest part of the month was the 2nd half, when the MJO was inside or barely outside the left half of the circle.
- Feb of 2015 (green line):
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/mjo/graphics/archive/MJO_phase/201501.phase.90days.gif.small.gif
Note that the coldest and wintriest part of the month was the 2nd half, when the MJO was mainly inside the left half of the circle.
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olhausen
Member
I really don’t understand how we punt a month that never really produces much snow in the south anyways. Since we are using football terms, punting December is kind of like a team punting on 2nd down the whole game because they figure they won’t get any first downs anyways. Expecting a big snow in the south during December is kind of like expecting the bengals to have a wining record by December. Sure it could happen but you are going to be very disappointed most years.
For a month that supposedly is not great in the south, December sure has delivered the last 2 years. 2 historic December storms.
olhausen
Member
Yep, let’s punt January on December 17th. ?