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Pattern December - Deal or No Deal?

whatalife said:
While look at that...possible light at the end of the tunnel.


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Question is...is it a 3 week tunnel or a 5 week tunnel. People lost there minds yesterday on the prospects of a 5 week tunnel. Hopefully we can get some positive short term changes that translate to a quicker flip.
 
Kylo said:
Question is...is it a 3 week tunnel or a 5 week tunnel. People lost there minds yesterday on the prospects of a 5 week tunnel. Hopefully we can get some positive short term changes that translate to a quicker flip.
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My guess will be 3-4 weeks so around Jan 15-20th. The good news is their at least going to back a flip and not a flop.
 
Kylo said:
Good news for early/earlier in Jan

https://twitter.com/met_khinz/status/1074412279020568581?s=21
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This was something I briefly alluded to yesterday morning.
Screen Shot 2018-12-16 at 4.54.39 PM.png

The ECMWF has trouble propagating the MJO across the Maritime Continent due to a wet bias there and its rather poor handling of local air-sea interactions and topographically forced convection over Indonesia among other things. Intriguingly, the Climate Forecast System (CFS) actually performs better than most major models with MJO propagation and predictability thru the Maritime Continent (phases 4-5) for the wrong reasons of course because its convection within the MJO's envelope is too intense.
 
Storm5 said:
He said this wasn’t happening either the day before he got stuck https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=1_Tahv7raKk

I’m not saying it’s gonna snow Friday , it’s just funny . He’s. Great severe weather guy probably one of the best in the southeast . But he is horrible when it comes to winter weather


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At least he is honest about his mistakes. That's what I like about Spann. Glenn Burns would never admit when he is wrong.
 
Webberweather53 said:
This was something I briefly alluded to yesterday morning.
View attachment 9241

The ECMWF has trouble propagating the MJO across the Maritime Continent due to a wet bias there and its rather poor handling of local air-sea interactions and topographically forced convection over Indonesia among other things. Intriguingly, the Climate Forecast System (CFS) actually performs better than most major models with MJO propagation and predictability thru the Maritime Continent (phases 4-5) for the wrong reasons of course because its convection within the MJO's envelope is too intense.
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Whatever it is, Ph 8 puhleezeeee ... then get stuck there until March ... o_O
 
pcbjr said:
Whatever it is, Ph 8 puhleezeeee ... then get stuck there until March ... o_O
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I'm honestly not sure entirely why (& yea I realize the Jan phase 7 composite mean in the N hem looks amazing, not sure wrt its significance tho which is more important) and there's a lot of room for statistical artifacts, issues w/ sample size, and a pretty pronounced bifurcation point after 2000, but the last 11 of 13 years since 2000 wherein the MJO entered phase 7 during January, a winter storm came knocking in NC. If you extrapolate the current MJO event forward in time this would put us somewhere in the vicinity of mid January for getting phase 7 event this year. I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if the MJO becomes strong or very strong over the WP if a sudden stratospheric warming comes to fruition near the end of December.
 
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Webberweather53 said:
I'm honestly not sure entirely why (& yea I realize the Jan phase 7 composite mean in the N hem looks amazing, not sure wrt its significance tho which is more important) and there's a lot of room for statistical artifacts, issues w/ sample size, and a pretty pronounced bifurcation point after 2000, but the last 11 of 13 years since 2000 wherein the MJO entered phase 7 during January, a winter storm came knocking in NC. if you extrapolate the current MJO event forward in time this would put us somewhere in the vicinity of mid January for getting phase 7 event this year. I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if the MJO becomes strong or very strong over the WP if a sudden stratospheric warming comes to fruition near the end of December.
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Webb,
You as much as anyone know I love weather, of all kinds (except 'Canes, of course). But this time of year, weather's a passion for an old Curmudgeon. IMBY, in a great season it's 6 weeks of winter; 8 weeks constitutes a coup. By Valentine's Day, we're usually knocking on 80's. So please understand the desire for a favorable MJO, PNA AO, NAO, WPO, EPO and anything else that might do the trick ... in December and January ... ;)
Best, Man!
Your Friend,
Phil
 
SD said:
Take the model with the lowest snow total for your location multiply that by 0 and expect that

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Yea, then you won’t be disappointed.
We should have gave you the snow blower off the 12 days of Christmas. Because you been burned a lot by the models. ❄️❄️❄️
 
I know alot of people are waiting for the Gfs model yo be thrown out, but I'll take the gfs over the fv3 any day. The clown maps on the fv3 are crazy, if that's our new replacement and we have those maps to look at over the years, than people are going to be deceived by what they are seeing. Im just not that thrilled for the change over.
 
Also will the fv3 have it's own gefs model? Or will the gefs be thrown out to?
 
accu35 said:
I know alot of people are waiting for the Gfs model yo be thrown out, but I'll take the gfs over the fv3 any day. The clown maps on the fv3 are crazy, if that's our new replacement and we have those maps to look at over the years, than people are going to be deceived by what they are seeing. Im just not that thrilled for the change over.
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for the thousandth time... this should be pinned.. its tropical tidbits problem not FV3...
EDIT: PICS 12z PIVOTAL VS TIBITS
 

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Based on this, I'm too all in favor once into January of a long phase 8, a long phase 7 prior to it, and even a long phase 1-2 following it, but would prefer it is on the weaker side when it gets to these phases as this research of over 1,200 days of January data covering 40 years (1975-2014) suggested to me a few years ago:

https://blog.southernwx.com/2017/01...phase-inside-the-left-side-of-circle-coldest/

Although far from a perfect correlation and certainly not an end all be all just as is the case for any index with polar opposite exceptions, many of our greatest SE Jan cold waves 1975-2014 were during weaker versions of the left phases, especially from just outside to inside the circle. Furthermore, every one of the 8 phases averaged at least 3 F colder when comparing inside the circle with outside the circle over these 40 Jans. So, I highly doubt this was due to randomness. In addition, I discussed this with a met at Radiant last winter and he backed me up on the idea then from a met. standpoint. I think he told me it had to do with the idea that a stronger MJO may tend to bring in more warming from the tropics than a weaker version.

The following are many of the closest examples I could find to this optimal path….note that all of them resulted in anywhere from a 10 to 19 day period of solid cold domination in the SE (follow the red lines):


1. 1/10-28/1977:


http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/mjo/graphics/archive/MJO_phase/197701.phase.90days.gif


2. 1/6-15/1988:


http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/mjo/graphics/archive/MJO_phase/198801.phase.90days.gif


3. 1/8-19/1994:


http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/mjo/graphics/archive/MJO_phase/199401.phase.90days.gif


4. 1/4-14/1996:


http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/mjo/graphics/archive/MJO_phase/199601.phase.90days.gif


5. 1/20-31/2000:


http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/mjo/graphics/archive/MJO_phase/200001.phase.90days.gif


6. 1/13-27/2003:


http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/mjo/graphics/archive/MJO_phase/200301.phase.90days.gif


7. 1/1-10/2014:


http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/mjo/graphics/archive/MJO_phase/201401.phase.90days.gif
 
I'm not giving up yet with the wrap around precip. with the late week system. Reasons: 1.) The timing of the wrap around precip. is still over 100 hrs out. 2.) Evidence of colder surface temps. (on previous runs) can trend colder again on future model runs. 3.) Dynamic cooling is very possible.

Something shouldn't be counted off when there has been evidence of something occuring. Also, the storm system hasn't even developed yet. It's not even in the full 84 hr time frame to confirm what the GFS, Euro, FV3, etc. has been showing. By then, there could be some changes, big or small. You never know, there could be hefty wrap around snow showing up on the models within the next 48 hrs.
 
GaWx said:
Based on this, I'm too all in favor once into January of a long phase 8, a long phase 7 prior to it, and even a long phase 1-2 following it, but would prefer it is on the weaker side when it gets to these phases as this research of over 1,200 days of January data covering 40 years (1975-2014) suggested to me a few years ago:

https://blog.southernwx.com/2017/01...phase-inside-the-left-side-of-circle-coldest/

Although far from a perfect correlation and certainly not an end all be all just as is the case for any index, many of our greatest SE cold waves 1975-2014 were during weaker versions of the left phases, especially from just outside to inside the circle. Furthermore, every one of the 8 phases averaged at least 3 F colder when comparing inside the circle with outside the circle over these 40 Jans. So, I highly doubt this was due to randomness. In addition, I discussed this with a met at Radiant last winter and he backed me up on the idea then from a met. standpoint. I think he told me it had to do with the idea that a stronger MJO may tend to bring in more warming from the tropics than a weaker version.

The following are many of the closest examples I could find to this optimal path….note that all of them resulted in anywhere from a 10 to 19 day period of solid cold domination in the SE (follow the red lines):


1. 1/10-28/1977:


http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/mjo/graphics/archive/MJO_phase/197701.phase.90days.gif


2. 1/6-15/1988:


http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/mjo/graphics/archive/MJO_phase/198801.phase.90days.gif


3. 1/8-19/1994:


http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/mjo/graphics/archive/MJO_phase/199401.phase.90days.gif


4. 1/4-14/1996:


http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/mjo/graphics/archive/MJO_phase/199601.phase.90days.gif


5. 1/20-31/2000:


http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/mjo/graphics/archive/MJO_phase/200001.phase.90days.gif


6. 1/13-27/2003:


http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/mjo/graphics/archive/MJO_phase/200301.phase.90days.gif


7. 1/1-10/2014:


http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/mjo/graphics/archive/MJO_phase/201401.phase.90days.gif
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Wiki?
 
WxWatch said:
I'm not giving up yet with the wrap around precip. with the late week system. Reasons: 1.) The timing of the wrap around precip. is still over 100 hrs out. 2.) Evidence of colder surface temps. (on previous runs) can trend colder again on future model runs. 3.) Dynamic cooling is very possible.

Something shouldn't be counted off when there has been evidence of something occuring. Also, the storm system hasn't even developed yet. It's not even in the full 84 hr time frame to confirm what the GFS, Euro, FV3, etc. has been showing. By then, there could be some changes, big or small. You never know, there could be hefty wrap around snow showing up on the models within the next 48 hrs.
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What areas do you think have the best shot at accumulating snow? I highly doubt more than a trace in Atlanta, if even that.
 
GaWx said:
If you mean linking to the blog from wiki, good idea, Phil.
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Your blog is there; it's the new stuff you just added (at least I think it's new stuff - #'s 1- 7) that would make an exceptional addition ... I can copy and insert your text and links into Wiki, or you can send FS or me some text with the links, if you want ... or better yet, add it to your blog!
 
pcbjr said:
Your blog is there; it's the new stuff you just added (at least I think it's new stuff - #'s 1- 7) that would make an exceptional addition ... I can copy and insert your text and links into Wiki, or you can send FS or some text withe the links, if you want ... or better yet, add it to your blog!
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None of it is new. I retrieved all of that from looking back at the blog post, especially the diagram with average anomalies for each phase both inside and out.
 
GaWx said:
None of it is new. I retrieved all of that from looking back at the blog post, especially the diagram with average anomalies for each phase both inside and out.
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OK and good to know ... but I'm always looking for new, good, stuff to add to our Wiki!
 
WxWatch said:
I'm not giving up yet with the wrap around precip. with the late week system. Reasons: 1.) The timing of the wrap around precip. is still over 100 hrs out. 2.) Evidence of colder surface temps. (on previous runs) can trend colder again on future model runs. 3.) Dynamic cooling is very possible.

Something shouldn't be counted off when there has been evidence of something occuring. Also, the storm system hasn't even developed yet. It's not even in the full 84 hr time frame to confirm what the GFS, Euro, FV3, etc. has been showing. By then, there could be some changes, big or small. You never know, there could be hefty wrap around snow showing up on the models within the next 48 hrs.
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I agree with you that's why I'm not giving up on it as well... This is the third day in a row the models been consistently showing something from the 20-23 timeframe...
 
Arcc said:
Quite annoying. For the second time in two weeks if we had cold air at the 900mb level and below, portions of the south would see a very nice hit with that.
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Yeah sucks we have a two contour closed low and surface temps to that 900mb level sucks.
 
I'd like to know the percentage of the time over the last 70 years (when historical upper atmospheric maps started) in Dec that a two contour low didn't produce sig snow in the SE. I don't have the time to research that and it would be very time consuming. But if someone had an enormous amount of time, they could look at the daily wx maps for every Dec day back 70 years, find the days with the two contour lows, and then looked at the daily wx conditions for key cities nearby. Or if they didn't have that much time, maybe they could look back, say, only 25 years or whatever.

I do already know that the number of major snows at ATL from a pure upper low without an accompanying Gulf low moving well to the south is very low with 3/1/2009 being one of the very few exceptions. Almost all major ATL snows were associated with Gulf surface lows, often weak, whether or not there was an accompanying closed upper low. 3/1993 was a very rare very strong Gulf low, by far the strongest on record to produce major ATl snow.
 
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One odd thing about this winter is since 1950 we have never had a winter nino where the SOI was positive for Oct, Nov and December. But, that is about to occur. The 90 day SOI will be solidly positive once we hit December 31 as the solidly negative period to end Sept rolls off...assuming the models are correct.

You would think we had a fading nino about to flip to neutral/nina...which we don't.

Screen Shot 2018-12-16 at 8.09.56 PM.png
 
75607bcda02ad82a4e08d5561017423b.jpg


Something brewing for CAD areas the 27-28th


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GaWx said:
I'd like to know the percentage of the time over the last 70 years (when historical upper atmospheric maps started) in Dec that a two contour low didn't produce sig snow in the SE. I don't have the time to research that and it would be very time consuming. But if someone had an enormous amount of time, they could look at the daily wx maps for every Dec day back 70 years, find the days with the two contour lows, and then looked at the daily wx conditions for key cities nearby. Or if they didn't have that much time, maybe they could look back, say, only 25 years or whatever.

I do already know that the number of major snows at ATL from a pure upper low without an accompanying Gulf low moving well to the south is very low with 3/1/2009 being one of the very few exceptions. Almost all major ATL snows were associated with Gulf surface lows, often weak, whether or not there was an accompanying closed upper low. 3/1993 was a very rare very strong Gulf low, by far the strongest on record to produce major ATl snow.
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I found this website (link below) that lists accumulating snowfalls in ATL that dates back to the 1930s. There are some accumulating snowfalls in there in the month of Dec. but most of them are a trace. I would have to do some more digging to view the maps to see the setup. Some maps are hard to find though.

https://www.currentresults.com/Yearly-Weather/USA/GA/Atlanta/extreme-annual-atlanta-snowfall.php
 
WxWatch said:
I found this website (link below) that lists accumulating snowfalls in ATL that dates back to the 1930s. There are some accumulating snowfalls in there in the month of Dec. but most of them are a trace. I would have to do some more digging to view the maps to see the setup. Some maps are hard to find though.

https://www.currentresults.com/Yearly-Weather/USA/GA/Atlanta/extreme-annual-atlanta-snowfall.php
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From what I know, meteocentre (where I get the UKMET) has retrospective maps, but I don't know how to find them off the top of my head. Used it to look at a couple previous storms.
 
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