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Pattern December - Deal or No Deal?

GaWx said:
I predict with confidence based on history that this late week upper low will give the ATL-AHN corridor very little or nothing. This is more of a far N AL and far NW GA potential. The only reasonable hope is for MAYBE some flurries/snow showers mainly on the NW side of ATL (Cobb) with a small chance for little to likely no accumulation. These types of systems almost always disappoint those in the ATL-AHN corridor who put much hope into them. ATL peeps would be best off if they would consider the models/just punt the rest of the month and not get their hopes up (at least for anything more than something very minor at best) and instead hope for something of significance in J, F, or M. I think the chance for either a 1.5”+ SN/IP from a Miller A or 0.50”+ ZR from a Miller B or a Miller A in the ATL-AHN corridor (or a combo in a portion of the area) at some point in J, F, or M is about 2/3 per longterm ENSO climo.

Down here in my area, the chances this winter of 0.5”+ SN/IP or 0.25”+ ZR as is the case in most winters are very low. Of the ~29 weak to low end moderate El Niño winters since 1876-7, SAV had only 2 winters with wintry precipitation that met these limits: the late Feb 1914 major ZR with some IP and the incredible TWO pure snows of Jan 1977 (0.7” and 1.3”). So, I’m giving it about a 10% chance and even that’s probably a bit generous. SAV’s best chance per climo for all ENSO for any one period is in the 2nd to 3rd week in Feb although significant wintry has occurred anywhere from late Dec through the first week of March.
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I can’t like this enough. This is a likely nonevent for ATL for certain as it stands now. I’ll completely give up when some schmuck decides to make a storm thread


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12z GFS snowfall map looks more like it, very similar to the 0z EPS mean but with higher totals for the mountains. Its an otherwise crappy pattern so any flakes/flurries in lower elevations is a win IMO.

gfs_asnow_seus_25.png
 
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I will say if you compare the LR, standard at your own risk, and the GFS (hr 84) GFS is more east/progressive with the upper trof digging vs the Nam and euro more than likely it's all for not as we are going to need some massive help. Lol
 
Hmmm this has been going back and fourth on models but I'm watching this since this piece of energy has some cold press and look at that CAD. Screenshot_20181216-121902.png something to watch ?
 
Storm5 said:
He said this wasn’t happening either the day before he got stuck https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=1_Tahv7raKk

I’m not saying it’s gonna snow Friday , it’s just funny . He’s. Great severe weather guy probably one of the best in the southeast . But he is horrible when it comes to winter weather


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agreed
 
I will not, will not, will not complain ...
... but model watching is maddening ... and having nothing to contribute that is not positive is, well, rather disheartening ...
There, now back to Sunday afternoon ... o_O

EDIT: Before departing ... Kudos to Larry (@GaWx) for his phenomenal post this AM ... always something good from Savannah!!!!
 
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The FV3 is horrible !!! Clown maps are a joke low to mid 40s and it spits this out LMAO
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Storm5 said:
The FV3 is horrible !!! Clown maps are a joke low to mid 49s and it spits this out LMAO
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Wow that's bad!! LMAO. Ummmm 2m temps are going to be to warm. That clown map is hilarious.
 
Yeah was just about to post what ForsythSnow said. Use pivotal or dupage for FV3 snow totals. TT always has issues with snow totals. TT updates FV3 quicker than other 2 sites so have to wait longer for them.
 
There's still a chance that this system can surprise us Friday I'm not giving up on it only because some of the models been showing something around that timeframe consistently... Everyone is entitled to their own opinion carry on
 
Cold deep air will wrap behind that low because it's a dynamic system. Not only that, there would be convective instability, so the rates of precip. will be high. The surface temps maybe in the 40s behind that low, but since there would be convective instability, dynamic cooling comes into play. So, it's possible that those surface temps drop to marginal readings (32-34f) If the snowfall rate overcomes the point of melting, there would be some accumulations.
 
There will probably be some graupel In those heavier rates due to steep lapse rates/very quick cooling aloft which Will also help to drag down some cooler air, kinda like a downpour/thunderstorm, speaking of thunderstorms, whoever sees 250+jkg of cape in the warm sector should watch for severe weather, sure there might be limiting factors like cloud cover and a skinny cape sounding but that jet streak looks to be strong, wouldent take much instability
 
GaWx said:
If Montgomery, AL, were to officially get even just a trace of snow out of this, I’ll not post for a week after the snow.
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Well we got snow on Nov 15 when no one was expecting it so I mean it’s not like it’s some impossible feat. I mean I don’t really care about accumulations if that’s how I’m coming off, if I just see flakes I’m satisfied. That said, it’s unlikely but not impossible.
 
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pcbjr said:
Oh yes you will, or you'll have a visitor from Hogtown to feed until you resume ... :cool:
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Phil,
I'll keep my promise if it were to unexpectedly happen and we could PM if we wanted for exactly one week after I know they got a trace+ if it were to happen. I'm going to go strictly by the official station only (MGM). But I'm not worried about it or else I wouldn't have made that promise, of course.
As it stands now, there likely won't be too much to discuss interesting wxwise for the week after, regardless, as it appears no cold pattern change will start before the last few days of the year at the earliest.
 
GaWx said:
Phil,
I'll keep my promise if it were to unexpectedly happen and we could PM if we wanted for exactly one week after I know they got a trace+ if it were to happen. I'm going to go strictly by the official station only (MGM). But I'm not worried about it or else I wouldn't have made that promise, of course.
As it stands now, there likely won't be too much to discuss interesting wxwise for the week after, regardless, as it appears no cold pattern change will start before the last few days of the year at the earliest.
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I see you don't wanna feed me ... understandable ... LOL
;)
In all seriousness, Larry, you're right, but the temptation not to josh you was too strong, for as you say, "as it appears no cold pattern change will start before the last few days of the year at the earliest..."
Best, My Man!
Phil
 
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