Storm5
Member
Pulling for our Tennessee, Arkansas and Carolina friends . What a great early season gift this would be
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SnowNiner
Member
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Wow, thanks for that. The big members have really increased for the cad areas. I don't think I've seen that big of a mean 7 days out for CLT. Anyone have the EPS mean? Looks like it held strong.
Storm5
Member
Wow, thanks for that. The big members have really increased for the cad areas. I don't think I've seen that big of a mean 7 days out for CLT. Anyone have the EPS mean? Looks like it held strong.
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6z GEFS and last nights op Euro/EPS..pretty damn close
GEFS
EURO
EPS
GEFS
EURO
EPS
Not crazy about the high sliding out to sea. Like that it builds in faster, but it doesn’t need to be a barn burner.
Kylo
Member
EPS western ridge is better than the GEFS at day 7 and spikes a weak NAO block.
Jon
Member
Not bad compared to a couple runs ago. Maybe the high slows a bit on 12z
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I like how the doc was further south .Honestly the weaker that low the better. Would like to see the high anchor in a bit better too . But a good trend for the op run. Much better than Thur night run.
Can we actually have a transient cold shot with moisture at the same time? Got to be perfect timing no doubt
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NorthGaWinter4
Member
Idk man NE ga has a decent shot too
Storm5
Member
Yeah they do . I was just going with the areas that IMO have the best shot
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SnowNiner
Member
The best gfs runs had it holding strong through the event, gefs seems to have that idea more than the eps. My hope is even in the worst situation in that it slides out early, the start of precip will get the insitu type wedge and holds strong as it's done in the past.
Yeah euro moves it out quick. Gfs seems to hang it in there, just more north than we like. Maybe they'll meet in the middle. Lol.
Man I don’t know. I guess if we’re gonna be able to pull it off, this is the year.
Round Oak Weather
Member
That was prolly the best night of model runs we’ve had. I honestly think the 12z and 18z gfs runs could be right or close to right in the end
Jon
Member
The eps has some major changes wrt blocking and confluence digging south towards Hudson Bay at 00z 12/9. Decent trends this far out...I feel like no matter how this trends it’s not really a setup for a large snow for RDU because of the high pressure setup and confluence won’t help much and if it does it could pull the storm NW a bit. Despite the several 10”+ GEFS members....We will likely miss out to our friends to the NW, but that’s normally how it goes for this first one of the season. Odd sources of cold air really don’t work out for us (RDU). I’d like to see some stronger CAD set up in future runs
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Kylo
Member
Not ready to punt anything. All of us usually need great timing and luck regardless. This don’t look to bad to me. If we can hold that ridge and maybe nose into HB some and keep that sneaky NAO then just maybe.
Overall, there hasn't been any significant changes with the track of low. Models are starting to come into agreement, I do believe that things will start to shift southward. Even though, there hasn't been any evidence of a solid PV over southeastern Canada during the time frame (which would help keep the system south,) but with the strong high coming down from the north, I do believe that the storm will push southward as the low tracks east. On these model runs, initially the low may appear that it wants to cut, but it will be "shoved" southward. We've seen evidence of that on some model runs.