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Pattern December - Deal or No Deal?

Lmao wut

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Bordereline major to major SN/IP/ZR storms at ATL during 29 weak to low end moderate El Nino winters since 1876-7:

12/29, 12/31-1/1, 1/1, 1/7, 1/8, 1/22, 1/23, 1/23, 1/26, 1/28-9, 2/4-6, 2/7-8, 2/15, 2/23, 2/26, 3/2, 3/2, 3/14 meaning main clumps very late Dec-early Jan, late Jan-early Feb, and late Feb-very early Mar. Middle 1/3's of DJF pretty quiet for whatever reason, which may be randomness.

- 18 storms during 16 winters (two winters had two, each) out of a total of ~29 weak to low end moderate Nino winters since 1876-7. So, ~55% chance per weak to low end moderate Nino winter for borderline major to major SN, IP, and/or ZR at ATL.
- 6 of these 18 during 5 of the 29 winters were a major ZR: 1/7, 1/8, 1/23, 1/28-9, 2/4-6, 2/7-8 (these last two back to back in 1905)
- The other 12 were mainly SN or IP: 12/29, 12/31-1/1, 1/1, 1/22, 1/23, 1/26, 2/15, 2/23, 2/26, 3/2, 3/2, 3/14
 
What Ive learned from watching these dagum models and threads over the past fifteen years is this. No one knew what the next few weeks would do and that is still the case.

So far the climate models have flip flopped, the Euro weeklies have flip flopped, December was gonna torch, until it wasnt and now it is again, the PV was gonna strengthen and kill winter until it is now under a SSW event.

Everyone one needs to get outside and get some fresh air.
 
Interesting runs tonight. Euro dug a bit further south and goofus and new goofus did as well. 2m temps going to need to continue to trend better tho
 
I was just taking a look over the 0z Euro, the low does close off, but the track of low is further south and east than the 0z GFS. The Euro is also warmer. At this time, I would go between the two with the track of low. The low may develop further south like what the 0z Euro showed, but I think it will still track just west of the apps. I say this because, as the low tracks northeastward, a ridge builds in over central/south central Canada (roughly) and far southeastern/eastern Canada. If that holds, the trajectory of low would be just west of the apps, because the low wants to make it between those ridges. The GFS OP has been fairly consistent with the track of low over the past days (5 total runs now since the 18z run Friday) Still, the snow chances are there for northern AL/GA/TN up thought the apps.
 
PEA_RIDGE said:
James spann says not happening.. using euro maps...
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He said this wasn’t happening either the day before he got stuck https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=1_Tahv7raKk

I’m not saying it’s gonna snow Friday , it’s just funny . He’s. Great severe weather guy probably one of the best in the southeast . But he is horrible when it comes to winter weather


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I predict with confidence based on history that this late week upper low will give the ATL-AHN corridor very little or nothing. This is more of a far N AL and far NW GA potential. The only reasonable hope is for MAYBE some flurries/snow showers mainly on the NW side of ATL (Cobb) with a small chance for little to likely no accumulation. These types of systems almost always disappoint those in the ATL-AHN corridor who put much hope into them. ATL peeps would be best off if they would consider the models/just punt the rest of the month and not get their hopes up (at least for anything more than something very minor at best) and instead hope for something of significance in J, F, or M. I think the chance for either a 1.5”+ SN/IP from a Miller A or 0.50”+ ZR from a Miller B or a Miller A in the ATL-AHN corridor (or a combo in a portion of the area) at some point in J, F, or M is about 2/3 per longterm ENSO climo.

Down here in my area, the chances this winter of 0.5”+ SN/IP or 0.25”+ ZR as is the case in most winters are very low. Of the ~29 weak to low end moderate El Niño winters since 1876-7, SAV had only 2 winters with wintry precipitation that met these limits: the late Feb 1914 major ZR with some IP and the incredible TWO pure snows of Jan 1977 (0.7” and 1.3”). So, I’m giving it about a 10% chance and even that’s probably a bit generous. SAV’s best chance per climo for all ENSO for any one period is in the 2nd to 3rd week in Feb although significant wintry has occurred anywhere from late Dec through the first week of March.
 
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Storm5 said:
He said this wasn’t happening either the day before he got stuck https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=1_Tahv7raKk

I’m not saying it’s gonna snow Friday , it’s just funny . He’s. Great severe weather guy probably one of the best in the southeast . But he is horrible when it comes to winter weather


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I try to tell everyone this. He's not even that good of a SVR WX forecaster....just a nowcaster. He's the best at what he's good at...which is the here and now...and with technology the way it is now days, most of general public can get the information quicker than he can relay it via TV.
 
Storm5 said:
He said this wasn’t happening either the day before he got stuck https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=1_Tahv7raKk

I’m not saying it’s gonna snow Friday , it’s just funny . He’s. Great severe weather guy probably one of the best in the southeast . But he is horrible when it comes to winter weather


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He also makes very absolute statements about tropical systems that are not justifiable meteorologically and also end up being 100% wrong. I grew up with him guiding us through tornado outbreaks, and I appreciate what he does. He just needs to dial back the absolute statements.
WRT this Friday storm, he could say "as of now, there would likely be little to no impact if there are some flakes," rather than a flat "no impact."
 
My hopes are in next weekend storm, FV3 as bogus as it is with the clown map, it's been fairly consistent with showing this system like the Gfs for few days now. I don't see this just disappearing, FV3/Icon FWIW, Has this digging further south and bringing much more moisture further south into Alabama rain or snow vrs GFS. This is a "clipper" type set up to where it could either form a weak low in the northern gulf or just some rich wrap around moisture.
 
GaWx said:
I predict with confidence based on history that this late week upper low will give the ATL-AHN corridor very little or nothing. This is more of a far N AL and far NW GA potential. The only reasonable hope is for MAYBE some flurries/snow showers mainly on the NW side of ATL (Cobb) with a small chance for little to likely no accumulation. These types of systems almost always disappoint those in the ATL-AHN corridor who put much hope into them. ATL peeps would be best off if they would consider the models/just punt the rest of the month and not get their hopes up (at least for anything more than something very minor at best) and instead hope for something of significance in J, F, or M. I think the chance for either a 1.5”+ SN/IP from a Miller A or 0.50”+ ZR from a Miller B or a Miller A in the ATL-AHN corridor (or a combo in a portion of the area) at some point in J, F, or M is about 2/3 per longterm ENSO climo.

Down here in my area, the chances this winter of 0.5”+ SN/IP or 0.25”+ ZR as is the case in most winters are very low. Of the ~29 weak to low end moderate El Niño winters since 1876-7, SAV had only 2 winters with wintry precipitation that met these limits: the late Feb 1914 major ZR with some IP and the incredible TWO pure snows of Jan 1977 (0.7” and 1.3”). So, I’m giving it about a 10% chance and even that’s probably a bit generous. SAV’s best chance per climo for all ENSO for any one period is in the 2nd to 3rd week in Feb although significant wintry has occurred anywhere from late Dec through the first week of March.
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Yeah I have the same thoughts. The system type usually dries out by the time it reaches GA and I bet flurries won't make it out of N AL or TN, and the mountains in N GA may see a flurry or two. Nothing other than light rain or nothing at all will make it beyond them. If it happens to be moist enough, which the GFS as unreliable as it is, shows, there could be what you said, just flurries. I'm going to wait until I see a real potential to get excited which seems will come later into late Dec at the earlier, but more likely Jan.
 
accu35 said:
My hopes are in next weekend storm, FV3 as bogus as it is with the clown map, it's been fairly consistent with showing this system like the Gfs for few days now. I don't see this just disappearing, FV3/Icon FWIW, Has this digging further south and bringing much more moisture further south into Alabama rain or snow vrs GFS. This is a "clipper" type set up to where it could either form a weak low in the northern gulf or just some rich wrap around moisture.
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I’m hoping a surprise low In northern gulf. To put more people in play


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The GFS/FV3 is trending colder but without Euro support, I don’t feel so good about it. I could punt though but what’s the fun in that? :p
 
Storm5 said:
He said this wasn’t happening either the day before he got stuck https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=1_Tahv7raKk

I’m not saying it’s gonna snow Friday , it’s just funny . He’s. Great severe weather guy probably one of the best in the southeast . But he is horrible when it comes to winter weather


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One thing I have learned about snow in the south is if Spann says it's not gonna happen you better be prepared to be snowed in.
 
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