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Pattern December - Deal or No Deal?

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only 16 more days


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Getting the perfect Storm track with the cold. That’s what seems to be the problem. We get a good look then it’s gone by the next model run. Then back again. I just don’t think we will really know about a storm until it’s within 7 days


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Jessy89 said:
Getting the perfect Storm track with the cold. That’s what seems to be the problem. We get a good look then it’s gone by the next model run. Then back again. I just don’t think we will really know about a storm until it’s within 7 days


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More like 3-4 days. And even then it’s still questionable as to weather or not a particular area in the south will get snow. The south is one of the hardest places to predict snow. This last storm the local weather predicted a half inch of snow. They then upped totals to possibly 2 inches the day of, only to drop the totals back down during. Ended up with nothing but some freezing rain after all was said and done. A lot of non weather folks will bash the weather forecasters because they don’t understand how truly hard it is to predict snow in the south.
 
I'm having a hard time understanding all the worry about the pattern at 384 when things are looking so interesting next week? The models are very inconsistent beyond 168, ....One phasing storm would change everything?
 
More back side snow on the 18z GFS. Bring it on! Perhaps, it could trend better and better.

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Also, look at those 850 temps, excellent snow growth with those kind of temps.

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pcbjr said:
Lord, here's hoping and praying that the Pioneer model is right, and not the US Government (now, which is an oxymoron, of sorts?) ...

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Below is the December composites of our cold/snowy nino's v/s warm/non-snowy. Granted, the sample size is very small but you can guess how this December is evolving.

GoodNino.pngBadNino.png
 
I dunno that this December is really going to be colder than average or warmer than average, tbh. I'd say right now we're at average or slightly below, and while we're in a relaxed period, we don't seem like we're going to get crazy warm. Seems like most of us might end up at about average for the month (or maybe that's the point?).

Although that latter map does look incredibly similar to what the models are showing for the second half of December and that might not be good news.
 
This run of the gfs is even better for western nc, colder sfc/850s but mountains is a issue, snow almost never makes it past the nc mountains
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
This run of the gfs is even better for western nc, colder sfc/850s but mountains is a issue, snow almost never makes it past the nc mountains
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It will certainly dry up. And have almost zero chance of making it into upstate sc


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GeorgiaGirl said:
I dunno that this December is really going to be colder than average or warmer than average, tbh. I'd say right now we're at average or slightly below, and while we're in a relaxed period, we don't seem like we're going to get crazy warm. Seems like most of us might end up at about average for the month (or maybe that's the point?).

Although that latter map does look incredibly similar to what the models are showing for the second half of December and that might not be good news.
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I can't speak for your area but this area won't be anywhere near average with lows averaging in the 40s by months end.
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
I dunno that this December is really going to be colder than average or warmer than average, tbh. I'd say right now we're at average or slightly below, and while we're in a relaxed period, we don't seem like we're going to get crazy warm. Seems like most of us might end up at about average for the month (or maybe that's the point?).

Although that latter map does look incredibly similar to what the models are showing for the second half of December and that might not be good news.
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Surface temps really don’t look torchy, so I guess that’s a plus. But the H5 look sux and if I was going to extrapolate the winter based solely on Kylo’s composites, I’d be starting to get depressed. Fortunately, I’m counting on the solar min to save us. But if I’m still staring down this pattern two-four weeks out at the beginning of January, then I’ll be in the winter is over camp.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
This run of the gfs is even better for western nc, colder sfc/850s but mountains is a issue, snow almost never makes it past the nc mountains
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It depends on the track of low, but the models have been fairly consistent with the track. But, who knows, the track may shift east. If so, there would be more snow east of the mountains.
 
whatalife said:
So you are saying winter is canceled


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I think the only thing that is off the table is end to end cold. There is fairly good agreement on what the pattern will be the next couple of weeks and it will take time to change after, if it changes. My guess is we are headed to a 14/15 repeat where things turn in February. I hope I am wrong and it’s mid January.
 
Kylo said:
I think the only thing that is off the table is end to end cold. There is fairly good agreement on what the pattern will be the next couple of weeks and it will take time to change after, if it changes. My guess is we are headed to a 14/15 repeat where things turn in February. I hope I am wrong and it’s mid January.
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Oh, so now you are punting until sometime in February??.... For the love of everything holy, you folks have been drinking too much eggnog. Might as well punt until March while you're at it! I will make it a point to bump this post when everyone is freezing their butts off in January.
 
Kylo said:
Below is the December composites of our cold/snowy nino's v/s warm/non-snowy. Granted, the sample size is very small but you can guess how this December is evolving.

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Well, it's certainly clear which bin the first half of December 2018 fell into. I think we will return to a big league winter weather regime before January ends, but that's not to say we couldn't do something before then, especially once we get out of that awful 3-4-5 MJO regime.

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Kylo said:
I think the only thing that is off the table is end to end cold. There is fairly good agreement on what the pattern will be the next couple of weeks and it will take time to change after, if it changes. My guess is we are headed to a 14/15 repeat where things turn in February. I hope I am wrong and it’s mid January.
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I’m in agreement with Rain Cold. If we get to the first of January and we see another 2 to 4 weeks of this warm pattern showing up we are more then likely done...


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Cad Wedge NC said:
Oh, so now you are punting until sometime in February??.... For the love of everything holy, you folks have been drinking too much eggnog. Might as well punt until March while you're at it! I will make it a point to bump this post when everyone is freezing their butts off in January.
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Deep breaths, everything will be OK. Nobody cancelled anything, we are just discussing weather. I gave my option, backed it up with some analogs. There are other factors pointing to a prolonged warmup. MJO, SOI.

If you disagree and think we flip in January then spell it out. Would love to hear it, you might be correct.

People need to chill out if someone posts something they may disagree with. This is a weather forum to discuss weather. R E L A X
 
Cad Wedge NC said:
Oh, so now you are punting until sometime in February??.... For the love of everything holy, you folks have been drinking too much eggnog. Might as well punt until March while you're at it! I will make it a point to bump this post when everyone is freezing their butts off in January.
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I think we’re free to guess. If somebody wants to guess Feb is when we’ll see winter show back up, it’s not much different than someone else saying winter will show back up in mid-January. I don’t think January is a tosser, but there’s no way to know for sure either way.
 
FWIW ... Tony (@dsaur) had skeeters as big as Air Force One, spiders as big as a Patton tank, and moles galore ... somethin' good hasta happen ... soon ... :eek:
 
J.C. said:
I can't speak for your area but this area won't be anywhere near average with lows averaging in the 40s by months end.
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Perhaps I shouldn't be looking at highs only then, as 40s certainly aren't average lows for here either later in the month and might well be well above. But looking at highs only certainly doesn't look like a torch, JMO. Not when in recent years, we've seen 70-80 degree highs around Christmas and torrential rain that seemed like warm rain one year.
 
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1300m said:
Well, it's certainly clear which bin the first half of December 2018 fell into. I think we will return to a big league winter weather regime before January ends, but that's not to say we couldn't do something before then, especially once we get out of that awful 3-4-5 MJO regime.

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I would rather be in the crappy phases now.
 
Just to give some more background on my post above. I looked up some winters that traversed Ph4-6 to see how they evolved. Again, not a ton of analogs but just to give an idea.

Here is what the pattern looked like as MJO enters phase 5.

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10 days after Phase 5...look familiar?

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20 days after phase 5....not to bad. This would put us roughly mid-January.

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30 days after phase 5....this would put us end of January.

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Again, I hope I am wrong, I hope the models are wrong, I hope the models modeling MJO are wrong. I hope we flip January 1st and we are all measuring snow with yardsticks. But, I don't appreciate getting attacked by baseless responses.
 
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