I wasnt aiming that at you, just in case you thought I were. Just using your quote to make a point in general.
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I wasnt aiming that at you, just in case you thought I were. Just using your quote to make a point in general.
0z FV3, by the looks up at H5. The track of low will be further south and east. Either way, strong eastern storm system is looking likely late next week. Some will get severe wx, some rain to snow. Of course, all that will be figured out once we know which track the low will take.
RollTide18
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0z FV3, by the looks up at H5. The track of low will be further south and east. Either way, strong eastern storm system is looking likely late next week. Some will get severe wx, some rain to snow. Of course, all that will be figured out once we know which track the low will take.
If the low is further south and east, who would get snow in that scenario?
Tarheel1
I TOLD YALL IT WASN’T GOING TO SNOW
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If that one don’t work , that little nugget behind it in CA, looks like it could be fun later!?0z FV3, by the looks up at H5. The track of low will be further south and east. Either way, strong eastern storm system is looking likely late next week. Some will get severe wx, some rain to snow. Of course, all that will be figured out once we know which track the low will take.
Wow, I'm not going to look at exact numbers, but with a strong storm, there would be a strong jet streak. Definitely severe wx on eastern sector of low.
Yeah a look that that would promote a possible hslc event, of course limiting factors is skinny cape and likely cloud cover but that storm is still far out
Northern AL/GA, upstate SC, up through the Apps, including the foothills of NC. It would be all wrap around moisture. If you look at the 0z GFS, it has nice wrap around snows mostly for the upper south. Again, if that low develops sooner, further south and east, the wrap around snows would be further south than what the 0z GFS is showing. Then again, it may not be cold enough for snow. But, normally with a strong eastern system, it will pull deep cold air pretty far south.
ﹰGFS ﹰoutput here for 12z Friday dips to -30C at 500mb with 5C at the surface. With lapse rates that steep, precip is almost certain to be showery/convective in nature. Scattered to numerous showers/snow showers with accumulations mainly in the higher elevations would be my guess.
Euro is definitely deeper and a bit further south with the trof, but 2m temps look to be a problem. I don't have access to the good maps, but that's the best I could tell.
Yup, Euro is deeper with the trof indeed. I can't tell what's going on by the looks with the 850 temps. But deep cold air is being pulled far south. I'm on mobile right now, so it would be hard for me to view the paid maps. Can someone look at H5 on the Euro to see what's going on? By the looks of the 850 temps, it appears that there is a secondary low from the main low that is north. 2m temps may not be a problem, they could fall drastically as the low tracks to the NE and strengthens.
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LovingGulfLows
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That has potential. Crazy how the 850 mb 0c line curves around the the mid-level low. If surface temps could cooperate....
Don’t see a look like that every dayYup, Euro is deeper with the trof indeed. I can't tell what's going on by the looks with the 850 temps. But deep cold air is being pulled far south. I'm on mobile right now, so it would he hard for me to view the paid maps. Can someone look at H5 on the Euro to see what's going on? By the looks of the 850 temps, it appears that there is a secondary low from the main low that is north. 2m temps may not be a problem, they could fall drastically as the low tracks to the NE and strengthens.
whatalife
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That H5 look will produce a nice surface low that tracks north through the central Carolinas, bringing widespread rain to everyone. As the big deep H5 low swings by, if there’s enough moisture left over, someone, maybe in the northern mountains into WV may see some wet snow. There is no cold air anywhere to be found. This is a rainstorm. A big deep troughy rainstorm. I would issue gale warnings offshore with the threat of squalls and t-storms for coastal sections.Yup, Euro is deeper with the trof indeed. I can't tell what's going on by the looks with the 850 temps. But deep cold air is being pulled far south. I'm on mobile right now, so it would he hard for me to view the paid maps. Can someone look at H5 on the Euro to see what's going on? By the looks of the 850 temps, it appears that there is a secondary low from the main low that is north. 2m temps may not be a problem, they could fall drastically as the low tracks to the NE and strengthens.
Ok ty. I figured lol have a radar/precipitation map?For now the temps are a problem for you guys...
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cd2play
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Perhaps if we get to sloshing our ass off, we'll get enough dynamic cooling with an ULL to do the trick?
It will take a lot of sloshing! It’s within the realm that someone gets wet snow on the north and west sides as it moves NE. Would be much more likely if there was genuine cold air somewhere.
whatalife
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tennessee storm
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yeah 2m temps are a big problem delta... another cold rain shapping up. yuck
Ty. Ya this is gonna be a tough one to get any wintry unless we have some massive 2m help.Here’s the precipitation type map.
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Storm5
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Yawn , I’m so tired of all the rain we need to dry outHere’s the precipitation type map.
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LovingGulfLows
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I really hope 2m temps aren't going to be a common problem with us this winter. The upper and mid levels are cooperating, but just like with the ULL last week, this ULL has the same problem with surface/lower level temps. Where is the cold air at? I guess we'll have to wait until January.
RollTide18
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It’s so weird, like I alluded to last week, it’s like we’re in a late winter, early spring type pattern where we’re getting great setups but it’s cool and not cold.
whatalife
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Yeah. Better start looking at the middle of January and beyond (sarcasm)...
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RollTide18
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So basically punt the next 30 days?
whatalife
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mydoortotheworld
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Here’s the precipitation type map.
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Damn not a spec of blue to be found
Storm5
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Because that not the precip type map . There is snow in the tenn mountains
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whatalife
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NoSnowATL
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Sarcasm but pretty close to right. Definitely not going to get a good chance until MJO goes into 8. So 2-3 punt is correct.
The system after has my attention and it's still about 200 hours away, cmc shows some light wintry precip breaking out in tennessee with HP to the north of the storm, the gfs had this a few runs ago
NoSnowATL
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What drives me crazy is how the MJO flies through the cold phases but takes her sweet poo time going through the warms ones.
Sad, a 530s dm trough/ULL over the south yet no snow.
I'm hoping for the high pressure to be a bit more west, maybe over Iowa and Illinois.
GeorgiaGirl
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IF next weekend actually shakes out as shown on the GFS, I'm going to miss out on seeing possible token flakes to a dusting by a little over a day...darn it lol.
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Getting more interested in Christmas Day system, H5 look for today’s GFS and especially the CMC is not bad, at least workable. Need to start seeing a trend towards a stronger cold push and high pressure up north, but still a long way to go.
12z FV3 is colder, there's going to be more wrap around snows further south verses 12z GFS. Good mountain snows too, across eastern TN/western NC.
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sigwx
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This fog though
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