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Pattern December - Deal or No Deal?

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last night 0z run low headed south
 
I85 special or Cad area special..I would take that and call it a year!
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
my concern is that we need a feature to shove our storm south early and keep it there. It’s going to take a pretty strong high pressure to do so I’m afraid. That’s what we have been lacking on every other global model which is why the have been showing rain for most on this board
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If you are hoping a surface high pressure will push the low south, you will be disappointed every time. If it amps, it will come north. We need a combination of where the wave enters the US, separation in shortwaves diving in from the north to avoid phasing, right wave orientation and the perfect location of the 50/50. WeatherNC explained it well. The truth, it must thread the needle perfectly.
 
Well, the 6z GFS was a wild ride. The HP was slightly ahead of the low this run. That allowed the CAD areas to get a little colder, and also slowed the system down. The low ended up tracking inland for a perfect run for DC. However, the upper level energy ended up igniting another system which gives much of NC 6+ inches of powdery goodness. Take a look:

First system:
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And after the second part of the storm:
snod.us_ma.png
 
ForsythSnow said:
Don't bother looking at the 6Z GFS. It's way too warm but at least the low is not as far south as 0Z.
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I end up getting 8 inches of snow in my backyard from the upper level energy on the backside. That would be awesome, but very unlikely.
 
I'm not to concern with gfs 6z, 12z will have new data
 
packfan98 said:
The best looking GEFS run for the CAD areas by far. The High pressure was able to build in more prior to the moisture.
gefs_snow_mean_nc_41.png
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Wow, that's pretty amazing actually. EPS looks like is stayed the course and has the mean location of the storm on the coast, southern slider as well. At day 7, that's a great signal.

Euro op looked good, but still came too far inland for my liking. But yeah, great to see it stay south and join the cad party.
 
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