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Pattern December - Deal or No Deal?

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What are y'all talking about lol!! Plus gefs looked good
 
I think this will come even further NW and may even take the MA out of the game. Without anything (-NAO) to impede its progress the high is sprinting out to sea as fast as its little isobars can carry it. Of course I could be wrong this far out :p
 
Storm5 said:
Gefs looks like hot garbage . It’s skewed from two big members

The overnight trend was clear , rain for us and snow for the Ohio valley


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I agree. Overnight runs sucked! We obviously still have plenty of time to see what happens. Hell I wouldn't be surprised if we end up seeing a severe threat possibly as well . Depends on track obviously.
 
There’s no real “trends” overnight, just a couple of bad Operational runs and the ensembles did go down in snowfall members (Euro slightly, not sure about GEFS but it appears it went down a lot) but moisture overall didn’t go down. For example, the mean QPF for RDU was 0.6” for both the 12z and 00z last night. The reason for less snow is probably temperature issues as the track of the s/w is similar on the last two eps runs.

If anything the ridge amplified a little.
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The problem here is the confluence is already negatively tilted, so it’s swinging due east when our storm is approaching.

But you can see how the EPS compares to the 00z op here:
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The confluence is neutral tilted and the storm sped up, with the shortwave over Kentucky instead of Louisiana, which is why the operational gives a snowfall just north of Kentucky.

Also, the GFS is just wrong here with the ridging stretching all the way to the NE...
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There’s many reasons this won’t work out, but it’s not a toss yet as the ensembles are still holding on, and ensembles between suites (eps vs GEFS) are still too different to say they have a grasp of this system.


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Yeah, the 6z GFS is terrible for a winter storm initially. However, it's possible a low pressure system may develop on the tail end of the frontal boundary from the first system next weekend. From the 6z GFS, there is another piece of energy coming down after next weekend's system (GIF) If that is to be true, and if something develops on the tail end of the frontal boundary, there maybe a "bomb" of a low pressure while cold air would be in place. So, be on the lookout for that possible further development.
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The potential for a storm is still there. Lots of time for specifics to be worked out, and lots of time for models to go from nothing to a big storm to nothing to a big storm again, rinse and repeat. We won't know for sure what exactly will happen until we are at least inside 72 hours. The back and forth this far out happens with every hit and every miss. But the potential is still showing up, and that is good news if you want some winter storms.
 
The only "trend" I see from this storm is that the storm is a no go during every 00z and 06z GFS run and reels everyone back in during the 12z and 18z runs. It's happened the last three days. Surprised no one else has noticed it. Wouldn't give up on anything because there has been no real trend at all.
 
Robert West said:
The only "trend" I see from this storm is that the storm is a no go during every 00z and 06z GFS run and reels everyone back in during the 12z and 18z runs. It's happened the last three days. Surprised no one else has noticed it. Wouldn't give up on anything because there has been no real trend at all.
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Yeah, when the models keep going from nothing to a big snow storm inside 24 hours, I don't think you can call it a trend either way.
 
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