The 6z FV3, looks meh, High is stronger in the NE, but booking it out to sea!
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The 6z FV3, looks meh, High is stronger in the NE, but booking it out to sea!
But, the kicker that somebody mentioned, is juicy!!Kylo
Member
EPS mean precip with temp anomalies. Looks solid to me.
cyclogent
Member
can we get a pin for the severe thread? day 1 ENH with hatched tornado risk
packfan98
Moderator
Done!
packfan98
Moderator
Here's the very unrealistic snow map from the 6z fv3 GFS. Will this be the last one of these today or will the models swing back in our favor? Stay tuned...
Round Oak Weather
Member
The GFS and the FV3 said nah to the warm up after the storm
It'll be back at lunch time and dinner time, then disappear again tonight.Here's the very unrealistic snow map from the 6z fv3 GFS. Will this be the last one of these today or will the models swing back in our favor? Stay tuned...
It does seem like the 12z and 18z suites of the GFS op are more realistic runs.
The GEFS looks like hell. It’s skewed by e19
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What are you taking about? That has by far the most members showing some snow in central AL or south of any run yet. It's beautiful.
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snowlover91
Member
Our little clipper system is still alive and well. Going to be tough to get snow since boundary layer temps are the issue here but if we can get those to cooperate there could be some snow showers across the area.
SnowNiner
Member
There’s no real “trends” overnight, just a couple of bad Operational runs and the ensembles did go down in snowfall members (Euro slightly, not sure about GEFS but it appears it went down a lot) but moisture overall didn’t go down. For example, the mean QPF for RDU was 0.6” for both the 12z and 00z last night. The reason for less snow is probably temperature issues as the track of the s/w is similar on the last two eps runs.
If anything the ridge amplified a little.
The problem here is the confluence is already negatively tilted, so it’s swinging due east when our storm is approaching.
But you can see how the EPS compares to the 00z op here:
The confluence is neutral tilted and the storm sped up, with the shortwave over Kentucky instead of Louisiana, which is why the operational gives a snowfall just north of Kentucky.
Also, the GFS is just wrong here with the ridging stretching all the way to the NE...
There’s many reasons this won’t work out, but it’s not a toss yet as the ensembles are still holding on, and ensembles between suites (eps vs GEFS) are still too different to say they have a grasp of this system.
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I agree, ensembles still look pretty good to me. Cold air is ALWAYS our problem and worry. However when the ensembles show a storm to my south on the gulf coast, in a split flow, and high pressure to my north between December and February, we're in the game at least. I think it's going to be a southern storm. I just don't know how strong the SE Canada vortex is going to be to provide the cold air. That'll be a question on into next week for sure.
RollTide18
Member
Yeah it’s light but E2, E6, E13, E18, and E19 shows snow for Central Alabama. Even E20 give the southern part of the state some love with a bullseye in South Georgia.
What is this ? BINGO ?
e19 please.
The GEFS looks like hell. It’s skewed by e19
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6z gfs was better then 0z gfs. It had a decent track. But just not enough cold air to work with.
12z gfs has just started. Let’s see if it repeats from yesterday.
12z gfs has just started. Let’s see if it repeats from yesterday.
SnowNiner
Member
I hope it's a hit because really, snow maps are just fun and bring me joy.
Really though I don't care about the GFS op. I want to see the ensembles keep the low on the gulf coast and I want to see high pressure over top. That's all I need through the weekend, then we can get into details under day 7.
clipper still looks healthy on the 12z gfs. temps an issue for clt but up in central nc it could switch to some snow showers. something to keep an eye on.
snowlover91
Member
Nice little clipper.
Soundings support temps cold enough for snow in the RDU area with the surface the only possible issue.
Soundings support temps cold enough for snow in the RDU area with the surface the only possible issue.
The shortwave looks faster.