Euro looks like many early season storms
Cold rain
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Cold rain
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Looks like if you want a winter storm you should root for it to come in faster before our high pressure slides away into the sunset.Yep, if we could shift the L south 200 miles, and the Atlantic H west 400 miles we'd be gold! Looks like there's some CAD though...Wonder if the EPS is continuing to lock in on this time period.
whatalife
Moderator
Euro looks like many early season storms
Cold rain
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Certainly nothing to get overly excited about right now...
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Kylo
Member
Impressive run of the EPS definitely lots of members for TN, western NC into the MA. Several members with hits further south.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
I'd definitely prefer to have a bit more blocking over Alaska & the Bering Sea as well as a deeper vortex in SE Canada before getting more excited about a Miller B/CAD late next week. However, considering we have the right long wave mid-latitude pattern accompanying a southern stream wave in California to get one, I guess beggars can't be choosers, and this isn't half bad imo, we just have to trend in the "right" direction the next 3-4 days or so before this becomes a really legitimate threat (if at all).
I agree, it's not that bad of a look considering with it being 10+ days away. The 12z GFS ensemble looks almost identical to the Euro ensemble.
SnowNiner
Member
At this range, I'm not sure what else we can ask for from the models at a 10 day lead. Both major ensembles show a gulf storm and some CAD. Probably not cold enough and not enough high pressure to the north, but....I don't know. What do we need to look for for better high placement as the GFS op showed?
Models sometimes do take sometime to catch onto CAD events. Sometimes they don't show anything till 24-48 hrs prior of the event (or 12hrs) sometimes they don't project any frozen precip. with CAD. If I recall, back on Jan. 25, 2013, the models did a poor job with that CAD event. Keep in mind, with this upcoming possible winter event, it may not be a CAD event.
It's encouraging to see the Euro and GFS still show a storm with cold air close by. Once it gets within 5 days that will be key on what we are looking at as far as CAD.
Well, 2 for 2 ensemble wise. EPS stronger with the ridge, farther south and deeper with the s/w and much stronger with the ridging over Greenland at hr 192. Still ways to go, but it's what you want.
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Brick Tamland
Guest
This was in the banter thread. Didn't see it in here, though.
That 5 in SW Cherokee County is right where my brother measured 14" in multiple spots. Whoever reported 5" there either did it after the melt or hit the eggnog too hard.
I will take the 264 look since it's snow vs freezing rain for here.This was in the banter thread. Didn't see it in here, though.
This is what we need. Notice the high in a much more favorable position.This was in the banter thread. Didn't see it in here, though.
It’s gonna be a good lesson for all as we head towards winter when this all falls apart on the models in 3-4 days
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Looks so much like Feb 2014, one of my favorite storms down here in Columbia. 3 day event, was awesome.This was in the banter thread. Didn't see it in here, though.
I'll take the EPS run to go please.
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Brick Tamland
Guest
Kylo
Member
Last year it seems we got lucky and the winter events all trended in our favor inside day 5. Question is, do we feel lucky.