GeorgiaGirl
Member
caveat, half of it is ice.
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caveat, half of it is ice.
Heck I remember the year the gfs did that with almost every system.
Only gives me 6”Where do I go to cash out!
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toss
You need to apologize to your mama for posting that X rated stuff. In all seriousness sucks to be you that's jusy where us NC folks want it hahaWhere do I go to cash out!
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Hartwell gets buried
I think if the system didn’t kinda mess up I think the are I got circled in would have done well also. But might be me wishcasting also. I just wouldn’t think it would skip over that area.
Not sure if that's the case for Arkansas/West TN/North MS.
caveat, half of it is ice.
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
That was a great run. You can't ask for more with a storm so soon in December.
I think it did that because those areas was too warm, as it move into the CAD region it became wintry again.
NWMSGuy
Member
Hopefully just a matter of time!
Told y’all, today it did the same thing. Terrible 00z 06z GFS runs, great 12z and 18z runs. Now if the trends hold true, 00z will be back to garbage.
I say we will hold or do even better.
:weenie::weenie:
Let’s hope!I say we will hold or do even better.
sigwx
Member
It's just nice to be tracking some winter fun again
Fv3 probably gonna have a cutter most likely. That’s how it been lately Gfs vs Fv3
GeorgiaGirl
Member
I think with the 0z it's time for either mostly a hold or to see suppression. The 6z actually wasn't too too bad when I looked at it.
Count me in as also curious about the FV3.
Count me in as also curious about the FV3.
whatalife
Moderator
I noticed that the 18z GFS has that secondary low that I was talking about earlier today. If the secondary low does develop, we'll need to watch out for that low as well, cause it could bring a "double dose" of wintry weather across the Carolina's and eastern/northern Georgia.
Dang, this one may end up a heartbreaker. Some would get winterwx, but it may end up one of those what ifs. Like I think it was March 2010.
accu35
Member
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Looked like the same low to me
Snowflowxxl
Member
Good to see we have something to track! Let’s get winter started off the right way!!
That's what I thought at first, if you view the eastern map (on TT) to get a wider view, you can see a secondary low develop well off the coast of the Carolina's. The first low tracks north of Bermuda.
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GeorgiaGirl
Member
Thought the FV3 would be good but lol nope, cutter. Just some initial snow in the NC Apps and Northern NC, that's it. Basically holding so far through today.
SnowNiner
Member
lol, it won't stop going south in the means. I guess keep going?...and then come back up a bit come game time.
GEFS is everything you want to keep trending. Ridge out west, the s/w is still trending south and stronger. The big low over the NE is trending westward, that will supply colder air and keep it suppressed or it may shear it out. Fine line there. Now if we could get it strengthen and cutoff over the gulf, we would all be happy.
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GeorgiaGirl
Member
GEFS members do look pretty solid. I see only two that look like cutters/the FV3 solution to me. Doesn't necessarily mean it's good outside the mid-upper south though.
Things that make you go "hmm" about the FV3.
Things that make you go "hmm" about the FV3.
Without the "I want snow bias", how well has the FV3 been verifying? I am sorry for the question because I haven't been able to follow closely as of recently with tons of "real-life" issues going on. Thanks in advance!
Round Oak Weather
Member
Can we get the gefs members posted?
GeorgiaGirl
Member
They aren't the pay ones that have accumulation but I think this is the best free snapshot of this run of the GEFS:
http://meteocentre.com/numerical-we...n=PT&stn_type=postagestamp&display=img&hh=216
If you go back and forth in this page, there aren't that many cutters at all. Some of the ones that didn't have cutters however weren't cold enough.
Storm5
Member
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e10 please.
Round Oak Weather
Member
Does weathermodels.com have the gefs members? I got monthly membership again yesterday and I’m still trying to remember how to run everything
SnowNiner
Member
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Still not there yet, wanna see the 2 inches on the mean in the piedmont.
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Seeing more members with the solid NW to SE motion. That tells me more the members are continuing to trend the NE low westward and shearing the s/w. Like I said, that is a fine line.
My gut feeling is often wrong, but Im wonder if we bust the other direction and the s/w shears out and no one but the Carolinas see anything other than showers.
Snownut
Member
I dont like the upstate being in the bulls eye this far out. That usually means we dont get any winter weather around here.
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Jessy89
Member
Does anyone think we have legitimate winter storm for southeast. Or is the gfs pulling us in just to break are hearts?
tractor girl
Member
My avatar explains everything.