• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Pattern December - Deal or No Deal?

Arcc said:
The GEFS actually trended better for a storm. Ridge out west is stronger and keeps the s/w more positive and would allow it to dig farther south. So positive there, if we could only get the NO bots on board.
Click to expand...

The EPS has trended a little more towards the GEFS...So that’s a positive...


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Arcc said:
The GEFS actually trended better for a storm. Ridge out west is stronger and keeps the s/w more positive and would allow it to dig farther south. So positive there, if we could only get the NO bots on board.
Click to expand...

At this stage the GEFS and EPS is the way to go for picking up on a storm signal. The OP runs won't really be useful until we get inside 144 hours out but seeing the GEFS trend better and EPS too is a solid step.
 
whatalife said:
The EPS has trended a little more towards the GEFS...So that’s a positive...


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Click to expand...


Hey, everyone may have forgotten, but last years blockbuster came out of no where, and didn't even look like a big deal until two days out. Who knows, maybe we can get lucky, wouldn't be the first time we've threaded the needle.
 
Arcc said:
The GEFS actually trended better for a storm. Ridge out west is stronger and keeps the s/w more positive and would allow it to dig farther south. So positive there, if we could only get the NO bots on board.
Click to expand...

I'd like to see more high pressure modeled on the ensembles in the CAD regions in the NE. That's not there it seems and that's really the whole deal IMO. The 12Z operational had a beauty banana like high, but it doesn't seem to match its ensembles. I could be reading it wrong though...

upload_2018-11-28_13-43-23.png
 
SnowNiner said:
I'd like to see more high pressure modeled on the ensembles in the CAD regions in the NE. That's not there it seems and that's really the whole deal IMO. The 12Z operational had a beauty banana like high, but it doesn't seem to match its ensembles. I could be reading it wrong though...

View attachment 7707
Click to expand...

I don't know. A CAD high is good for the Carolinas, but for a Miller A snow storm, I want it over the Midwest and pushing the cold air over the snow pack. Then the right track of the system will have a shot with a good cold air source for CAA.
 
Euro coming in with a storm day 10, still looks a little too warm and north with the low, but still something that can trend better
 
Rain Cold said:
Good one, GFS.

View attachment 7705
Click to expand...

abIkUSn.jpg
 
Stormdoc said:
Euro coming in with a storm day 10, still looks a little too warm and north with the low, but still something that can trend better
Click to expand...

Yep, if we could shift the L south 200 miles, and the Atlantic H west 400 miles we'd be gold! Looks like there's some CAD though...Wonder if the EPS is continuing to lock in on this time period.

ecmwf_mslpa_us_11.png
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top