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Pattern December - Deal or No Deal?

Euro ensembles must not be convinced of an overly strong HP

So far it’s GFS vs Euro/CMC/FV3?..ruh roh

I don't know, CMC looks ok to me (no matter what the precip map shows) at this range. I'd say it's currently GFS, GEFS, ENS, CMC versus EURO and FV3 at this point.

gem_mslpa_us_37.png
 
Fairly good model agreement between GEFS/EPS at day 8. Surprisingly good.

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What is the ideal high pressure location for the high? I notice the EURO is more in the plains but has more of a CAD signature, while the GEFS looks like it's in the optimal location and has less off a CAD signature?

I've always seen it's best to be in the NE, or in the lakes.
 
What is the ideal high pressure location for the high? I notice the EURO is more in the plains but has more of a CAD signature, while the GEFS looks like it's in the optimal location and has less off a CAD signature?

I've always seen it's best to be in the NE, or in the lakes.

That’s what I think too. Lakes extending into NY with a stout Newfoundland low.
 
Anybody keeping track of how that HP is trending on the Euro/Canadian/FV3 over the past 48 hours?
 
He goes out of his way to be a model contrarian any time there is a hint of winter weather. Then, when snow is imminent he drastically underplays the impact. Rinse and repeat. Scrooge McBurns.


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Sorta like the models always underplay CAD.
 
It’s pretty amazing how a slight difference in the strength and especially the position of the high pressure affects p-types east and west of the apps.
 
Anybody keeping track of how that HP is trending on the Euro/Canadian/FV3 over the past 48 hours?
Strength wise it's been fairly consistent the main issue is the high is transient so guess what.... thread the needle time (timing is everything)
 
Well, I was off work today and did some work around the house, and trying to catch up on how things have gone today. Looks like we could see some snow from the clipper the middle of next week before a possible bigger storm. Things still look positive to me, and I think the storm signal has only gotten stronger today.
 
Good luck everyone on the 18Z! Hope it goes HAM on winter weather for all of us. :D:weenie:

Does it follow the pattern of 12Z/18Z greatness and 0Z/6Z fail? Or does it just fail? Answer is, it doesn't matter what the GFS op thinks! Check the ensembles you jabronis! Sorry, the rock kinda worked himself in to that.
 
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