GeorgiaGirl
Member
I started to go back and forth from the 12z and 6z and the 6z had a low on the gulf coast, it was just too warm.
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I started to go back and forth from the 12z and 6z and the 6z had a low on the gulf coast, it was just too warm.
NoSnowATL
Member
Weeks... you know how a ATL works.
That 12z GFS run is more like it. I do think the track of the low is a trend. There's no consistency yet with the temps. and p. types. But, considering the number of model runs the GFS had with a winter setup overall, this system may have a better chance of being a winter system than just rain (for some.)
I still think that it's possible that there could be a 2nd system coming in right behind that possible winter system. We'll see, the models are getting a better handle, that's for sure. If there won't be any winter weather with that first system, and if there is a 2nd system, that one could have a higher chance at bringing snowfall over the southeast region.
I still think that it's possible that there could be a 2nd system coming in right behind that possible winter system. We'll see, the models are getting a better handle, that's for sure. If there won't be any winter weather with that first system, and if there is a 2nd system, that one could have a higher chance at bringing snowfall over the southeast region.
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What a wedge 
Kylo
Member
GEFS looks solid at day 8.
This looks like a lot of fun.....lol...well, if that looked verified....that strength of a high and anchored in like that....these temps would prob be a few degrees colder as well in the CAD areas....interesting...can we get a little of DR NO support?
Also...if** this run is close to being right, don't discount that back energy to be able to slow down and maybe spin something up as well. a little to late this run, but have to watch that.
I see the GFS is being stupid, has the LP off the coast of Fl/Ga but then redevelops inland and runs it up the coastal plain.... that ain't happening if that wedge verifies, the lp would be further east and more of Cen NC would be in play. IF that HP verifies....
And the FV3 is different.... shocker
Jessy89
Member
Yep it says what winter storm
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FV3 is a no go. Low track too far north. It was pretty damn close though imo
GEFS much improved over the 0z run, but this will change so much between now and then it's ridiculous.... we could have suppression, cutter, major winter storm, there is energy all over the place and models are struggling with handling the pattern. H5 is a mess
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Our little clipper system is still alive and well. Going to be tough to get snow since boundary layer temps are the issue here but if we can get those to cooperate there could be some snow showers across the area.
View attachment 7792
The GFS has a pretty horrendous BL mixing bias that causes it to go a little too ballistic w/ surface temps, I'd actually hedge on the side of colder if anything.
Storm5
Member
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ATLwxfan
Member
There is a clear storm signal with favorable trends. Inside D10 and winter has not even gotten started. Sign me the bleep up.
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Webberweather53
Meteorologist
My 2 favorite members from last night's EPS suite. Check please.
No complaints with the GEFS trend, look at that pac ridge...
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12z CMC has that 2nd piece of energy coming down as well.
It's early I know and anything can happen but I'm getting that CAD over-performing and models will catch up kind of feeling...... just a feeling
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Based on what I've noted throughout the observed record in NC, for Charlotte in particular the 3 best types of winter storms if you want a big snow/ice event are:
1) overunning events (Jan 1988)
2) Cut-off ULLs (Feb 1969 & Feb 2004)
3) Deep, cold CAD events (Dec 1930 & Feb 12-13 2014)
There's obviously some overlap between these especially storm types 1 & 3, and it's definitely looking more & more like whatever storm manages to affect the Carolinas and the rest of the southeast (if any) will be of "type" I or III. Here's to hoping for an amazing overrunning or deep CAD event; I'll take whatever I can get especially in early December.
1) overunning events (Jan 1988)
2) Cut-off ULLs (Feb 1969 & Feb 2004)
3) Deep, cold CAD events (Dec 1930 & Feb 12-13 2014)
There's obviously some overlap between these especially storm types 1 & 3, and it's definitely looking more & more like whatever storm manages to affect the Carolinas and the rest of the southeast (if any) will be of "type" I or III. Here's to hoping for an amazing overrunning or deep CAD event; I'll take whatever I can get especially in early December.
NorthGaWinter4
Member
Love it
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12z CMC has that 2nd piece of energy coming down as well.
That northern stream is the wildcard. A phase and this threat is done, a stronger press and you have a board wide snow storm, slower with more seperation and you have two storms, and finally wrong place and the s/w shears out. Good luck.
I could see that for sure
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Knowing how much dampening due to dispersion there is this far out in an ensemble suite, (obviously lots of under-dispersion too!) the fact that the GFS Ensemble mean already has a 1030 high at day 8 over the lower OH valley & stretching into the mid-Atlantic is actually pretty crazy..
RollTide18
Member
Is this potential event a CAD region only event?
Tarheel1
I TOLD YALL IT WASN’T GOING TO SNOW
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What was Dec 02? A #3
Do you guys find these maps useful?
So no?Only if they show snow over me.
Seriously, sure.
packfan98
Moderator
Euro out to 168. Shows some overrunning in AR and west TN that wasn't there on 0z. Let's see where it goes...
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snowlover91
Member
Those are very useful, especially with showing a deeper trough over the SE and higher heights out west which is key!
Fingers cross. Hopefully it will also start trending south.
Overrunning in Alaska? H5 must be a mess this run
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
December 2002 was definitely a pretty big CAD event/#3, just not quite cold enough to produce several inches of front end snow thumping before going to IP/ZR like Dec 1930 & Feb 2014 did.
Of course, those particular maps are helpful. Looking at what's going on up at H5 is one of the things that's most important as to what could happen down below.
Not sure this Euro run will show what 12z Gfs did for South.
GeorgiaGirl
Member
Based off free maps, this Euro looks like a no go and probably worse than 0z, but let me dive into the maps on weather.us and see if it looks a bit better.