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Pattern December - Deal or No Deal?

Webberweather53 said:
The Euro is amped but given how far out this is, the overall look is baby steps away from being something more substantial
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I agree. The HP was much stronger and in a better position. The track of the low suddenly moved SE between hours 198 and 204. That looked very suspect to me. I'm not sure what to take away from it???
 
The biggest take away from the modeling the last week is that Winter is not looking like a total dud this year.
Of course, CAD is always underdone, and if the GFS is close to being correct with a Southern solution, Upstate SC/NE GA/NC areas are sitting pretty for this time of the year. ;)
 
packfan98 said:
I agree. The HP was much stronger and in a better position. The track of the low suddenly moved SE between hours 198 and 204. That looked very suspect to me. I'm not sure what to take away from it???
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It went pseudo Miller B as the primary low interacted with the wedge over western NC. Because the wedge wasn't very deep, it didn't redevelop further east off the coast.
 
1300m said:
It went pseudo Miller B as the primary low interacted with the wedge over western NC. Because the wedge wasn't very deep, it didn't redevelop further east off the coast.
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That makes sense. Hopefully it will stay further south earlier and turn the corner more smoothly for the SE crew.
 
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The 12z Euro continues to paint the low further south than previous runs ( the last 3 runs have shift low south). So for anybody saying No Go because the Euro: remember GFS do pretty good with the CAD. This storm is still OVER 5 days away, have patience you guys.
 
packfan98 said:
I agree. The HP was much stronger and in a better position. The track of the low suddenly moved SE between hours 198 and 204. That looked very suspect to me. I'm not sure what to take away from it???
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You'll see lows from time-to-time jump from the windward side of the Apps to the eastern end in CAD events because the topographic blocking due to the mountains themselves (due to vorticity conservation compresses the column and deters cyclonic vorticity), and the strong low-level static stability in the CAD dome itself deters low-level cyclonic vorticity and acts as "effective topography", deflecting the track of the low pressure center around the mountains and CAD dome. Hope this makes sense haha!
 
Webberweather53 said:
You'll see lows from time-to-time jump from the windward side of the Apps to the eastern end in CAD events because the topographic blocking due to the mountains themselves (due to vorticity conservation compresses the column and deters cyclonic vorticity), and the strong low-level static stability in the CAD dome itself deters low-level cyclonic vorticity and acts as "effective topography", deflecting the track of the low pressure center around the mountains and CAD dome. Hope this makes sense haha!
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Makes perfect sense. Thanks! The question is, will the low really end up on the windward side of the Apps like the Euro has????
 
packfan98 said:
Makes perfect sense. Thanks! The question is, will the low really end up on the windward side of the Apps like the Euro has????
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I highly doubt it. I've seen instances where the models want to cut the low into a CAD and they almost always correct south/east. So long as we have a decently strong HP in place to establish the CAD. Now if the HP ends up weaker and we see very little CAD then it certainly could cut.
 
The 18z GFS will silence this board until the signal returns after 2 or 3 runs.


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Don't get too excited. E2 skewed the mean badly. There are not many other members that have much outside of the mountains.
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Storm5 said:
Arkansas and Tenn have many big hits it’s not e2 skewing those areas . For areas south of that yes, e2 is skewing it


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That's good. In my defense, I was focused on the CAD areas, not just my backyard ;).
 
I still like the GEFS. Most of the individual members look to be southern sliders, gulf storms to the south. Nice location on the mean as well. Hopefully the EPS looks similar.



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