Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Reminds me a little of Feb 8 2020, didn’t look like much of anything on global or regional models, warm advection ended up being stronger than forecast and kaboom
-
Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!
Wintry December 4-7 Winter Precip Chance
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
L
Logan Is An Idiot 02
Guest
06z gfs tho 
Sent from my Pixel 3 using Tapatalk
Sent from my Pixel 3 using Tapatalk
GFS Parallel
Clem282340
Member
This little storm reminds me of last year storm that came out of know where we have to wait till we get in the nam range
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
This is the first system of the year that legitimately has potential to produce some wintry weather around here given we're now well inside day 5.
Looks like the GFS, GFS parallel, ECMWF, CMC, & ICON are all hinting at the potential for at least some rain/snow showers Monday night east of the mountains.
Looks like the GFS, GFS parallel, ECMWF, CMC, & ICON are all hinting at the potential for at least some rain/snow showers Monday night east of the mountains.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
The 0z ECMWF certainly wasn't shy about putting down some legit QPF east of the mountains & that's probably what it's gonna take in this kind of air mass to have any shot at snow. Hope we can amp up the s/w a little more and at least partially phase with the southern branch disturbance that'll come out of the southern plains to squeeze out a little more precip.
accu35
Member
- Joined
- Jan 5, 2017
- Messages
- 8,654
- Reaction score
- 10,791
Any chance maybe Alabama could squeeze a few sprinkles out of this. Icon has been showing something light towards the gulf coast as well
There’s ALWAYS an unknown warm nose.
Stephenb888
Member
I agree it don’t look like much but could it turn into something bigger?
New Bern scores.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Northern Alabama w/ some slight upslope off the Great Lakes is probably your best shot at a few flurries or sprinkles
Shaggy
Member
It will be something for me to at least track while working night shifts this weekend. Ot overly optimistic at seeing a few flakes but just having a chance this early is nice.
also today is the 20th anniversary of the dec 3rd 2000 surprise crush job we got in eastern NC while areas west of I95 that were expecting a foot got flurries.
also today is the 20th anniversary of the dec 3rd 2000 surprise crush job we got in eastern NC while areas west of I95 that were expecting a foot got flurries.
LickWx
Member
Sounds like the one time that the NW trend failed and did not deliver ! That’s rare these days .
Fun times ahead
Dawgdaze22
Member
I think Web mentioned it but wow these medium/long range runs do remind me of February 8th
Looks like the 6z GFS/GEFS sucked
whatalife
Moderator
Not that this means anything for my area and take a look at the increase on the Euro EPS 06z
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Wow.. could it be a Jan 2018 setup again for eastern SC? What the temps looking like?Not that this means anything for my area and take a look at the increase on the Euro EPS 06z
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Nw trend nw trendNot that this means anything for my area and take a look at the increase on the Euro EPS 06z
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Definitely a good chunk of members with flurries!Not that this means anything for my area and take a look at the increase on the Euro EPS 06z
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
whatalife
Moderator
GSP is still interested ?
I took a look back at the January 2018 surprise storm. While the look is somewhat similar, definitely much less room for the wave to mature this time around. A lot would have to change before somebody gets more than flurries.
Ah January 2018. Clipper of a lifetime
Get the wave to tilt better and get a low to form is what we need. Again, similar look, but similarities don't show the whole story.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Yep overall trough axis needs to tilt more upright/neutral instead of being strongly positive/flat, that would slow the upper trough down and allow for more extensive QPF & potential for greater snow. It's a workable trend though being this is still ~4 ish days out.
L
Logan Is An Idiot 02
Guest
Didn't the 2018 Januastorm show up relatively late on the models? I remember Brad P. saying a day before the storm the my area would receive 1-2 inches. I actually got around 6.
Lol icon changes every run
Yeah, I remember each NAM Run giving us higher, totals each time around. I recommend going through and looking through this thread:
Last 4 runs of the icon : 
I enjoy the fact that 1300 took the time to go back and delete all of their posts in that thread. Psycho much
I don't this ICON run, we're not going to get anything with a dominant southern stream wave. We need the northern stream to dig, strengthen, and mature.
That event had some legit cold to follow with it
Doctor, doctor, doctor, doctor.......
Like you said, looks fairly similar just not looking as juicy. Which, I suppose could change. Something to note is that that thread was started 4 days out
I do think that with this setup it would be very difficult to get all of the board in play, even NC in play is questionable.
What do you think the chances we actually get accumulations outside the mountains are here? I'd have to imagine quite low
The last frame of the nam didn't look bad with more energy and a little farther west. I think it's still connected to initial system too much and will try to shear and stay positive tilt
Still looks good for the weekend system in the mountains for you snow chasers/uplope guys
