• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Wintry December 28-29th Possible Winter Storm

3 km NAM composite reflectivity near truncation. Again keep in mind some of this likely evaporating before reaching the ground on composite reflectivity but you get the idea of what the NAM is pushing here, patchy freezing drizzle or light freezing rain occasionally mixed w/ sleet from the Columbia & Fayetteville areas and points southeastward towards the coast.
refcmp.us_ma.png
 
Webberweather53 said:
3 km NAM composite reflectivity near truncation. Again keep in mind some of this likely evaporating before reaching the ground on composite reflectivity but you get the idea of what the NAM is pushing here, patchy freezing drizzle or light freezing rain occasionally mixed w/ sleet from the Columbia & Fayetteville areas and points southeastward towards the coast.
View attachment 2352
Click to expand...
How exciting.
 
Shawn said:
And to go with that; the energy and 500mb is much better for New Years, in theory, than what we have for this potential system. You'd think if ICON was over doing the strength and consolidation of the wave, it would be overly amplified and tilt happy with New Years's wave that is much more robust.

I am still routing for the Icon, not because I want ZR, but because I want another model I can half-way trust. The GFS has been such a letdown, I literally only look at the GEFS for a good idea now.
Click to expand...
It's pretty bad man. I'm starting to gradually learn, for atleast our area, not to get to excited even when you see something 100 hrs out. We are so due here in CAE... It's just going to be beyond disappointing if somehow we get through this week and a half with nothing but cold air to show for it..
 
Webberweather53 said:
This would probably be a decent conservative, middle of the road scenario to look forward to in the midlands at this point time w/ this storm on Thursday or Friday until there's at least more confidence either way for a bigger storm or nothing at all
Click to expand...
Which makes sense. Maybe we can manage something.. Anything would be nice.
 
I'm under a winter weather advisory tonight and early tomorrow in Fayetteville so I call that a win
Screen Shot 2017-12-26 at 1.31.30 PM.png

Here's what I'm thinking for NC tonight & tomorrow, patchy areas of freezing drizzle or light freezing rain, possibly mixed w/ light rain, sleet, or snow will be primarily confined to the coastal plain. You hit the jackpot with this storm if you get any snow/sleet, much less accumulation.
December 27 2017 NC forecast snowmap.png
 
gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_3.png
 
Also, the EPS absolutely sucks for precipitation getting to CAE for the Wintry threat. The majority of the mean is from tonight/tomorrow's first wave. I don't really see any member getting anything appreciable to CAE on wave #2.
 
Flow trying to become a little bet better at 500mb for this wave #2 scenario on GFS so far, but I don't think the wave is going to be strong enough.
 
1300m said:
18z German model, while still wetter than other guidance, is significantly drier than previous runs. Still would be a wintry event, and this may be the middle ground, or could be a trend towards nothing. 00z model runs will be very telling. We are definitely in the 4th quarter and it's getting down to the 2:00 mark, by 12z runs tomorrow I think we will know if this is still a threat or not.

18z:
us_model-en-087-0_moddeu_2017122618_75_35_220.png


12z:
us_model-en-087-0_moddeu_2017122612_81_35_220.png
Click to expand...

We may be indeed headed for a middle ground, definitely curious to see what the 0z suite looks like tonight. Still feel good enough in areas like Columbia & Fayetteville NC and points southeastward that something will probably fall (whether that's just a few areas of isolated freezing drizzle or moderate freezing rain/sleet mixed w/ snow). Northwest of these areas towards RDU, Charlotte, & Greenville-Spartanburg, something dramatic will need to happen over the next few days to bring them any appreciable precipitation
 
Yeah, ICON letting go. Dropped almost a quarter inch of precip for CAE on the 18z run. Nothing in the Upstate. This event, unless a substantial change at 00z, is over.

Edit: Outside the coast/Southern GA/SC.
 
Unfortunately, the trends over the last few days have been unkind to those looking for wintry precipitation in the southeast. It looks like this event (if there is one), won't amount to much of anything.
 
Yeh this thread is dead. We tried, might catch a flurry tomorrow morning...

Lol jk .. like that would happen. We live in the arm pit of hell. No snow here.
 
Robert West said:
Yeh this thread is dead. We tried, might catch a flurry tomorrow morning...

Lol jk .. like that would happen. We live in the arm pit of hell. No snow here.
Click to expand...

It'd be sleet for this area tomorrow from wave #1 at best.

Anyways, I bid this thread farewell! (for now)
 
Shawn said:
Yeah, ICON letting go. Dropped almost a quarter inch of precip for CAE on the 18z run. Nothing in the Upstate. This event, unless a substantial change at 00z, is over.

Edit: Outside the coast/Southern GA/SC.
Click to expand...

We're sitting precariously on the NW edge here in Columbia & Fayetteville NC, so I wouldn't rule out a low-moderate impact event here even if things don't change much in the guidance, it would only take a modest 50-100 mile NW shift from other NWP besides the ICON (like the EPS) to jack up the QPF to respectable levels here. Starting to not feel so great NW of the midlands towards the upstate however. It's still pretty far from over for you & me imo.
 
February is our best month climo wise for Winter Wx around here (Midlands of SC). Anything before that is typically a bonus.
 
Webberweather53 said:
We're sitting precariously on the NW edge here in Columbia & Fayetteville NC, so I wouldn't rule out a low-moderate impact event here even if things don't change much in the guidance, it would only take a modest 50-100 mile NW shift from other NWP besides the ICON (like the EPS) to jack up the QPF to respectable levels here. Starting to not feel so great NW of the midlands towards the upstate however. It's still pretty far from over for you & me imo.
Click to expand...
What about the CLT area?
 
SoutheastRidge said:
In a typical winter maybe. But most winters dont have this much cold early in the winter. So im afraid this is not going to be your typical winter.
Click to expand...
Well, I'll hold out hope nonetheless. Thus is way for us in these parts. We sometimes get the best Winter Wx, when they are more of a surprise, least predicted. Though, it's not looking good at all right now based on model trends.
 
It is a Nina but I wonder...

2/12/10 - major snow
2/12/14 - major ice
2/12/18 - ????

Maybe coincidence that both of the real majors in this area and eastward winter wise occurred on 2/12 and were four years apart, more likely it is, but just something to chew on.
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
It is a Nina but I wonder...

2/12/10 - major snow
2/12/14 - major ice
2/12/18 - ????

Maybe coincidence that both of the real majors in this area and eastward winter wise occurred on 2/12 and were four years apart, more likely it is, but just something to chew on.
Click to expand...
Dont forget Feb 06... There was a major snowstorm in the east. I believe it was also around Feb 12.
 
deltadog03 said:
Well I will say it again, I will waive the white flag after the 00z runs
Click to expand...
Lol, everyone knows there is nothing beyond I 20 to the south...unless it's dragons :) I'm still in the hunt for sleet tonight and tomorrow, and again Thur/Fri, but stuff down here don't matter, lol, even if it's cold and moisture is running by underneath. It ain't over until the virga has quit dancing, lol.
 
deltadog03 said:
Well I will say it again, I will waive the white flag after the 00z runs
Click to expand...
I am just going ahead and saying it now: I quit on this one. NEXT! As soon as the CMC decided to drop it and never regain it, and then the Euro follow suit, I decided it was headed for death. Oh well, there is always 3 more shots, then winter will throw a barrel of oil in the dumpster and light it.
 
So apparently time of death will arrive shortly with the 0Z NAM...so to cheer myself up due to missing another wintry opportunity i think I’ll eat a piece of chocolate cake... that should make things a little easier..
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top