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Wintry December 28-29th Possible Winter Storm

00z NAM still keeps SAV and CHS with generally under a .10". QPF crept a littlr further inland on the coastal counties this run
 
GaWx said:
0Z GFS vs 18Z GFS slight westward shift of precip, esp in S GA. Also, 0.25", though still offshore, is a bit closer to SAV/CHS.
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Lol, when you've got cold air above and precip moving below, it's not over until it's over. I'm going to be real interested in how this looks in actuality, after all the moving parts find a chair to sit in. T
Edit: A lot of the models said I'd see sleet last night, and I did. Hard to refute that....we can quibble about amounts, lol. But the jist of it was like that for days....I'd see sleet. They were right last time as I did see some snow...again I can quibble about the amounts, but the jist of it was there for days.
 
Stormsfury said:
Yeah dsaur. Definitely could establish how this pattern may play out with the future s/w's
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Yeah, Storm, that's one thing I learned from Robert. Try to see the overall pattern, and cull out what looks like it could really happen, and start from there, lol. If cold air is in N. Ga. and water is in south Ga. It's possible they'll find a way to meet up, as opposed to say, if the cold air was in the lakes and the water was in the gulf, lol Just need to let this pattern percolate awhile, and something might pop up multiple times. The models were getting the overall possibilities, at least for my yard....doesn't mean all the parts will come together, but, heck, you can't win the lotto without buying tickets :) This pattern is our ticket.
 
Uncle Nasty said:
If I'm not mistaken WxSouth is that clown that had a Tennessee Weather forum that is no longer active. He lives around Morristown and would argue and curse people out if the didn't agree with him. I think he's just a general contractor/handyman that likes weather as a hobby. I might be wrong but I'm 99.9% sure that's him. He used to post on other board and TennesseeWeather forum but he keeps getting banned from all the forums.
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Wrong guy. The guy you are talking about went by Toot ( Easternwx) and he died a year or so ago.
 
Ok folks I read the comments. I made a mistake when in actuality I was thinking of Eastern Weather as someone else pointed out. Yeah, Robert is one Helluva accurate met and I always used to read his stuff. Sorry I stepped on toes. I was simply remembering incorrectly. Carry on!
 
3k NAM close call for Larry, interesting along SC coast and even SE coast of NC. I'd be willing to bet the precip is a touch more NW at verification. Cold air in place any glaze would cause huge issues down there
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Robert West said:
Dang if somehow Charleston ended up with a quarter inch, that would be pretty bad.
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I'm not dismissing that's for sure, just yesterday morning precip came in further NW then modeled, happens all too often

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metwannabe said:
I'm not dismissing that's for sure, just yesterday morning precip came in further NW then modeled, happens all too often

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NAM for sure just notched the precip further North on the latest run. Wonder how much further it goes North..
 
Yeah, Charleston hoisted a Winter Weather Advisory for the event later. Temperatures overnight ran a tad warmer but since, temperatures continue to hold steady or slowly fall. 38° continues with a TD 26° or 27°. Winds aren't particularly strong. Right now, seems like 0.1" ZR is the general call. Noticed the 3km and 12k NAM are fairly bullish on a further reach inland... due to likely sharpening the coastal trough, in which sometimes it does too aggressively in the past.

Footnote: the NAM was upgraded early this year.
 
Plenty of moisture lurking down south, sharpen up the coastal trough as stormsfury pointed out, get any southerly component to Winds aloft and I could see the NAM solution. Give the HRRR a few hours and see what it shows, did decent again with yesterday's system but really only credible imo within 10 hrs

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HRRR not looking horrible if you're looking for ZR on the coast/s ga. Watch that guys, it could be a surprise.

It tries to get showers back into my county, west of CAE.


EDIT: well, nvm. something is wonky with my model data over here. I meant the 3KM NAM, not the HRRR
 
Kind of surprised Charleston is under a Winter Weather Advisory considering their forecast low is 33 and high tomorrow is 46 ! Also, they are only forecast to get a trace to a few hundredths of an inch.
 
SoutheastRidge said:
Kind of surprised Charleston is under a Winter Weather Advisory considering their forecast low is 33 and high tomorrow is 46 ! Also, they are only forecast to get a trace to a few hundredths of an inch.
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A couple quotes from CHS's discussion:

1. Temperatures: Surface observations indicate temperatures for
portions of GA are running about 1-2 degrees above the hourly
forecasts (especially for the Savannah metro area and coastal
locations further south)...while temperatures for portions of
SC (especially across the Charleston Tri-County area) are
running about 1-2 degrees below the hourly forecasts. We
adjusted the forecast to try to incorporate these trends over
the upcoming hours. It will be monitored closely over the next
few hours because 1-2 degree trends during the day could carry
over into night and that could lead to differences in rain or
freezing rain.
2. POPs: Some of the models have been more aggressive in
starting precipitation across portions of GA. Radar seems to
show otherwise. We backed off POPs for the next few hours. But
if the trend continues, we may need to back off more.
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Shawn said:
A couple quotes from CHS's discussion:
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Based on history with many hours of NE to NNE winds associated with a decent strength wedge, SAV will usually get to within 1-2 degrees of CHS once equilibrium is reached if both have steady and similar amounts of precip. Sometimes they'll even be the same. But it remains to be seen whether the NAM will ultimately be too cold. Progged wedge temperatures are more often underdone than overdone on most models.

The NAM has actually increased the qpf here to ~0.30". So, watching that trend. However, even if that much were to fall and even if there were to be some ZR eventually, it would initially be rain for a time. So, not nearly all ZR no matter what most likely.

Looking at the radar, that isn't pure virga that recently reached SAV. There has been a fall of a few very tiny drops in MBY. My temp is 41.9.
 
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Dewpoint dropped from 24 to 20 at CHS in just last hour. Upstream, MYR has had low teen dewpoints. SAV still pretty stable. 42.8 here with dewpoint still up at near 26. No more than few drops here so far and CHS dry. Interestingly, well south, Brunswick in the steadier rain is already down to 39 thanks to wetbulbing.
 
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Thank goodness temperatures are not dropping ahead of the rain as returns are blossoming just to my west and is about to reach me earlier than expected. For my area, I'm going to watch how fast it cools down from the current 42.8 along with precip trends. Current wetbulbs are near 37. However, much drier air lurks just to the N and NE. CHS's dewpoint is 20 and Walterboro is 21. Summerville's has dropped from 27 to 19 in just 3 hours. They are about 90 miles NNE of here.
 
GaWx said:
Thank goodness temperatures are not dropping ahead of the rain as returns are blossoming just to my west and is about to reach me earlier than expected. For my area, I'm going to watch how fast it cools down from the current 42.8 along with precip trends. Current wetbulbs are near 37. However, much drier air lurks just to the N and NE. CHS's dewpoint is 20 and Walterboro is 21. Summerville's has dropped from 27 to 19 in just 3 hours. They are about 90 miles NNE of here.
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The wedge should entrench fully in the next few hours. This should be interesting. It looks like it's gonna push further South of you, even.

Looking at the current wedging, I am quite glad the precipitation didn't make it up this way. It's the real deal. Would have been horrible to have a bigger system.
 
GaWx said:
Thank goodness temperatures are not dropping ahead of the rain as returns are blossoming just to my west and is about to reach me earlier than expected. For my area, I'm going to watch how fast it cools down from the current 42.8 along with precip trends. Current wetbulbs are near 37. However, much drier air lurks just to the N and NE. CHS's dewpoint is 20 and Walterboro is 21. Summerville's has dropped from 27 to 19 in just 3 hours. They are about 90 miles NNE of here.
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That's impressive and with those NE winds those DP's may very well make it to you, this going to be a close call for a light wintry event for you.... keep the updates coming.
 
Already wetbulbed here from 42.8 to 39.9 in just over 30 minutes.

Edit: wetbulbed down another 2 to 37.8 about 50 minutes later (10:55 PM). So a drop of 5 in just under 1.5 hours.
 
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Here at 12:30 AM, it has now dropped all the way to 34.7 with steady rain. So, another 3 F drop the last 90 minutes. This isn't all from wetbulbing as that limit was 37. Cold/dry advection from SC has been contributing. The question now is whether or not this steady rain will continue mucn of the night. If so and with the dewpoints at 16 at KCHS and 18 at Summerville, it will likely get close to if not below 32. The radar suggests it won't last too much longer but the rain keeps redeveloping.
 
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GaWx said:
Here at 12:30 AM, it has now dropped all the way to 34.7 with steady rain. So, another 3 F drop the last 90 minutes. This isn't all from wetbulbing as that limit was 37. Cold/dry advection from SC has been contributing. The question now is whether or not this steady rain will continue mucn of the night. If so and with the dewpoints at 16 at KCHS and 18 at Summerville, it will likely get close to if not below 32. The radar suggest it won't last too much longer but the rain keeps redeveloping.
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Wow!! Agonizingly close for you guys!!


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Stormsfury said:
KCHS REPORTING LIGHT RAIN/SNOW MIX 1AM
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With an 850 of +4 C, CHS is getting snow mixed with the rain? That is odd. I wonder if it is really sleet.

Meanwhile, here it remains at 34.7 with the steady rain over for at least for now. Maybe out of the woods?
 
Truck was covered in ice, but still made the 15 mile drive to work. Roads are wet, but traffic moving like usual. One bridge is closed so far. Will see how the rest of the morning goes.
 
So, how did you do Larry? I fell asleep with rain being reported in SAV, still. There was more moisture otw though.
 
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