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Wintry December 28-29th Possible Winter Storm

Lol DT is a massive weenie & is getting desperate, this is not something you go around posting on social media, sure on the forum here it's understood that we're doing a lot of this for fun and most of us have some idea of the nuances involved and we're all snow weenies so it's understandable, but those in the public who aren't hard core weather enthusiasts and dealt w/ this before have no clue & it's wrong esp to go so far as to throw in the exact snow amounts from the model...
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Webberweather53 said:
Lol DT is a massive weenie & is getting desperate, this is not something you go around posting on social media, sure on the forum here it's understood that we're doing a lot of this for fun and most of us have some idea of the nuances involved and we're all snow weenies so it's understandable, but those in the public who aren't hard core weather enthusiasts and dealt w/ this before have no clue & it's wrong esp to go so far as to throw in the exact snow amounts from the model...
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What is this based on, the GFS?
 
Webberweather53 said:
Lol DT is a massive weenie & is getting desperate, this is not something you go around posting on social media, sure on the forum here it's understood that we're doing a lot of this for fun and most of us have some idea of the nuances involved and we're all snow weenies so it's understandable, but those in the public who aren't hard core weather enthusiasts and dealt w/ this before have no clue & it's wrong esp to go so far as to throw in the exact snow amounts from the model...
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I am definitely using the ICON as a case study if this actually scores a coup or not.
 
Stormsfury said:
I am definitely using the ICON as a case study if this actually scores a coup or not.
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Even if it busts here (which it may very well do) I'm still going to keep it mind because I've seen similarly horrific busts out of the GFS/CMC/NAVGEM this far out, it honestly doesn't hurt to have another opinion and put another tool in the toolbox. We use it enough, we're going to get a good general idea of how well the model performs and what its biases are, etc.
 
Face palm!!! So you’re telling me there’s a chance? Lol!!!! Oh my...winter weather in the south is never easy... don’t know why we act like it should be...
 
Ha the NAM is probably wrong but if it actually were close to somewhat right, it's not far from my still having a minor ice event.
 
WxSouth still talking like there's a chance for this system on Facebook.
 
The 1km Swiss model isn't even close here in Fayetteville w/ current temps. Says it's supposed to be about 32F already, well it's actually 39F right now. We're well on our way to seeing 32-33F and cold rain
 
Webberweather53 said:
Poor Larry gets NAM'd yet again on this run. Even if you cut these numbers in half in coastal GA, still talking at least 0.25" of ice, more than enough to start leading to widespread power outages... Some ZR even makes it to the Macon area
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We have done this song and dance from the 12z run....but It is a pretty big upswing in the qpf shield, but def. an upswing in qpf amounts from 18z run. Again its the nam.....prob. all on its own, but we shall see if there is any other support for it.
 
deltadog03 said:
We have done this song and dance from the 12z run....but It is a pretty big upswing in the qpf shield, but def. an upswing in qpf amounts from 18z run. Again its the nam.....prob. all on its own, but we shall see if there is any other support for it.
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Yea we'll see. Regardless, I think it'll be hard to rule out (barring temps don't end up warmer than forecast near verification or this storm doesn't get suppressed a lot more) that some patchy light freezing drizzle or light freezing rain showers are abound in your neck of the woods. Those are nearly impossible (even for 1km models like the Swiss) to resolve this far in advance, much less at just about any time until it's almost on top of you...
 
Webberweather53 said:
Yea we'll see. Regardless, I think it'll be hard to rule out (barring temps don't end up warmer than forecast near verification or this storm doesn't get suppressed a lot more) that some patchy light freezing drizzle or light freezing rain showers are abound in your neck of the woods. Those are nearly impossible (even for 1km models like the Swiss) to resolve this far in advance, much less at just about any time until it's almost on top of you...
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I agree. I still think a nice little glaze is possible here. It won't take much.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Poor Larry gets NAM'd yet again on this run. Even if you cut these numbers in half in coastal GA, still talking at least 0.25" of ice, more than enough to start leading to widespread power outages... Some ZR even makes it to the Macon area
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Wowzers and 0.60" IN Charleston...lesser in the inland coastal counties...whoa
 
The last breaths of the 28th system for most of forum in next few runs...

Although tonight's system definitely makes you wonder...
 
deltadog03 said:
well, I am waiving the white flag on this one....
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NAM and GFS are barely different at 850mb and 700mb, yet the NAM sharpens up the coastal front and pops a 1015mb low where the GFS has no SFC reflection.

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hey it will snow when it snows! model watching is just ridiculous! again it will snow/sleet/zr when it does! period!
 
all this model watching is soooo stressful! imagine before all these models how it must have felt to just look outside and see snow when you haven't spent days stressing over weather it would happen or not I think that kinda of surprise is the best
 
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