• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Wintry December 28-29th Possible Winter Storm

With the trof dampening out as it appears on the Nam will that have any effect on the CAD signature that has been depicted for so many days ?

Sent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk
 
The NAM really trying Wednesday morning..
e40617430cec8ed881878c49c802b67c.jpg


Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk
 
WPC update

WIDESPREAD ICE/SNOW THREAT WITHIN ARCTIC AIRMASS OVER THE LOWER 48 THIS WEEK... OVERALL PATTERN AND GUIDANCE/PREDICTABILITY ASSESSMENT ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ IT REMAINS THE CASE THAT SYSTEMS MOVING IN FROM THE MID-LATITUDES OF THE PACIFIC ALONG WITH SOME 500 HPA RIDGE STRENGTHENING AND RETROGRESSION IN THE SUBTROPICS ARE EXPECTED TO BROADEN/WEAKEN OTHERWISE PERSISTENT RIDGING NEAR WESTERN NORTH AMERICA...THOUGH THE RIDGE'S EXISTENCE IS SUPPORTED BY THE UPSTREAM GYRE ALOFT WHICH STRENGTHENS/RETROGRADES INTO THE BERING SEA WITH TIME. DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES THE PATTERN FROM THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TO THE ERN SEABOARD...WITH LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED AS ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES HELP ASSERT REINFORCING SHOTS OF ARCTIC AIR TO THE REGION. DETERMINISTIC MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO OFFER POOR RUN-TO-RUN AND RANDOM DAY-TO-DAY CONTINUITY WITH THE OVERALL FLOW IN THE 4-7 DAY TIME FRAME...PARTICULARLY WITH SMALL SCALE SHORTWAVES...THOUGH ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS REMAIN CONSISTENT. DESPITE THE JUMPINESS OF THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE...FORECAST SPREAD HAS BEEN GRADUALLY DECREASINGING OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. THE BIGGEST ISSUES CONTINUE TO LIE WITH A LOW EXPECTED TO FORM OFF THE EAST COAST HEADING INTO THE NEW YEARS WEEKEND WHICH TRACKS INTO/NEAR ATLANTIC CANADA BY AROUND NEXT SUNDAY AND A SYSTEM MOVING TOWARDS BRITISH COLUMBIA AND THE PACIFIC NW FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY THROUGH A LEAD MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE POSITION. UPDATE...THE 00 UTC ECMWF HAS TRENDED MORE IN LINE WITH RECENT GFS RUNS WITH THE ERN PACIFIC FEATURE MOVING INTO BC AND THE PAC NW AND DOWNSTREAM ALSO TRENDS TOWARD A MORE SUPPRESSED LOW/QPF/WINTER WEATHER THREAT AS WELL. THE EARLIER RELEASED WPC MEDIUM RANGE PRODUCT SUITE WAS PRIMARILY DERIVED FROM A COMPOSITE BLEND OF THE GEFS/NAEFS/ECMWF ENSEMBLES ALONG WITH CONTINUITY. THAT SOLUTION OFFERED LESS AMPLITUDE/MORE PROGRESSION THAN THE 12 UTC ECMWF...BUT MAY HAVE TO REVISITED IF THE UPCOMING MODELS AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUE THE TRENDS OF THE 00 UTC ECMWF. THE UPCOMING QPF AND WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK PROGS WILL SHOW THIS TREND.
 
Nam definitely gets more respect these days. Don’t know if it got upgraded or what but it used to way over do precip.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
NAM did well with the last storm too I think but we'll need to wait and see what happens...the other models at least stopping trending dry would be a start...
 
Webberweather53 said:
I know some were wondering so here are the GEFS member panels thru day 5. About 2/3rds delivered solid hits to the SE US but I'm not sure how much I trust the GEFS at least more so than Euro/EPS
View attachment 2269
Click to expand...
Looks like they either have really good hits here or nothing at all. That seems how we roll lately.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top