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Wintry December 28-29th Possible Winter Storm

Clem282340 said:
What happen to the new year eve storm
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Already amping up too quick on previous guidance for many areas. Showing ice/sleet/rain. That storm is talked about in the Jan thread we have.
 
Well NAVGEM stayed wet.
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So this is looking like a ice event for the CAD areas?

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Bsud said:
So this is looking like a ice event for the CAD areas?

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After model trends tonight, likely no precipitation if the Euro has it's way.
 
deltadog03 said:
Euro doesn't even really develop the coastal low
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I'm not so sure this idea is off the table either. Every suite got lighter throughout the day, except the NAVGEM. People, for some reason, are following the NAVGEM closer because it supposedly picked up on that last Winter even through GA, etc faster. Lets be real! That model pretty much sucks for continental weather. The ocean, I've seen it do well. Since you know; it's a Navy model.
 
Shawn said:
I'm not so sure this idea is off the table either. Every suite got lighter throughout the day, except the NAVGEM. People, for some reason, are following the NAVGEM closer because it supposedly picked up on that last Winter even through GA, etc faster. Lets be real! That model pretty much sucks for continental weather. The ocean, I've seen it do well. Since you know; it's a Navy model.
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Even though it was ICE, I am so hurt like a kid when they find out there is no Santa!! Please trend back to moisture!!
 
Here is the Euro ZR map through 120:

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Euro is poof for everyone , for everything throughout the whole run. Crazy shift.
 
dsaur said:
Cad is so hard to work with. Move the high just a bit, juice it, and it's maga cad, or it just ices down Augusta again, or maybe Athens. Other times it's into Ala. Hard to say until the high declares. I wouldn't want your job, lol, while we seem to be seeing lots of extremes.
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What is a "maga cad?" One that betrays the nation?
 
To go with the Euro, the EPS mean is also much drier overall for 12/28-9. Not much moisture is normally available with W H5 flow. WSW flow would be much wetter.

Of course, the models have been horrible recently, which caused me to take a break. So, take any run past 3 days with a huge grain.
 
Exactly Larry. The models were locked in, it seemed, 4 days out+. Now that we are even closer, no way no way.

I don't mind not getting an ice storm though. It's not fun. A rare event your way would have been cool to see though.
 
06z NAM, still a sheared out weak mess with our wave. Although, it looks better than the Euro (I guess), precip starts up and you can see some mixing down at Southern GA/SC border.

Either way, the coastal is trying to pop off the GA/SC coast, but it's likely too little, too late.

What sucks the most about it, is it's a snow sounding for a lot of people, if there was better moisture.
 
Little more wave separation on the 06z GFS so far vs 00z; maybe looks a bit better; but it is still ugly.

Edit: UGLY.
 
06z Canadian tries to holdon to pytpes at least (some moisture) don't have qpf #s.

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