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Wintry December 28-29th Possible Winter Storm

tractor girl said:
Was on southeastern side, saw flakes fall that quickly melted. did not experience the lush 10" snow that everyone NW of me got.

At least bunch of folks in LA, MS and AL got a lot of snow who rarely ever see it. SC is due, as is south/east Atlanta and Athens.
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Ahhh that had to suck for you all.. I would of been so upset lol
 
Surface precip further N at 57. Into Atl Metro.
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Big change at 57 more consolidated wave stronger trough. Winds at h7 and h85 trying to get a more south component

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deltadog03 said:
Hail Mary with the nam as Shane said, there is more moisture this run
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Big improvements. Looks like the second wave is trying to take shape back in Gulf based of surface re flexion? 1022SLP with precip trying to break out into C and N AL/ N Ga.
 
SD said:
Big change at 57 more consolidated wave stronger trough. Winds at h7 and h85 trying to get a more south component

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Let it go man! Lol
It's like rooting for NC State in basketball!
But seriously, the NAM run now shows it warmer? There's only a little mix near Macon, does it do well with surface temps? Can anyone post a map of this last run , with this run?
 
It's amazing what happens when you don't channel vorticity under the NE low.
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Well that would be a pretty nasty ice event. Lol let's see if it has any other support from other models first
 
Most models do have a weak sfc low off the coast, but will other models support it
 
Would temps be cold enough near the coast to support that much ZR ? Savannah isnt forecast to get below 34 through Sat so im guessing this would be a very marginal situation ?
 
I'm so confused, some people saying there is no CAD, we have others saying there is. I'm in Florence, SC and I don't know what to expect.

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Well I am preparing for winter weather in Lavonia regardless of what these cray cray models say. A few years ago the radio met was saying we dodged a bullet as ice was starting to form and end result looked like a war zone❄️
 
carolinachaos said:
I'm so confused, some people saying there is no CAD, we have others saying there is. I'm in Florence, SC and I don't know what to expect.

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Disregard my post, I saw someone say it on the other board and checked the NAM and it appeared that way.
 
deltadog03 said:
View attachment 2324
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IF this (near 0.50" ZR) were to be close to verifying, I want to check one other event to make sure but I do believe this would be the worst widespread ZR for upper coastal counties of GA to far S SC since Jan of 1922. It almost certainly would be worst for right in the city of SAV since then and by what I think would be some margin. So, a truly historic (96 years) hit is a real possibility there. It is crucial that ZR amounts don't rise above here because that's when the damage and outages would rapidly increase. The JMA and ICON qpf's would cause massive damage. Hopefully they're both overdoing their 1.25" (which would be near the severe hit of 1922) as often is the case with the JMA. As it is at this near 1/2" level, it would already cause quite a number of problems for sure, including many outages and slippery driving/walking in certain areas, especially if it gets down to 30. We've got numerous very large oaks in and near the city that would be a big concern with just the 0.50" of ZR.

The comparison to the surface wx maps of the massive Jan 1922 ZR is eerily similar.

Keeping in mind the Irma hit, there have been other instances of a big tropical hit in the area followed by a sig wintry hit somewhere within the CHS-SAV corridor the following winter: 1894/1895, 1898/1899, 1989, 1979/1980 come to mind.
 
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if I'm seeing that dew point map correctly it shows dew point of 5 in col umbia seems like we would loose most of the moisture. am I correct lol?
 
GFS = suppression depression. This ones on life support, and we're about to have a power failure! :(
 
GaWx said:
IF this (near 0.50" ZR) were to be close to verifying, I want to check one other event to make sure but I do believe this would be the worst widespread ZR for upper coastal counties of GA to far S SC since Jan of 1922. It almost certainly would be worst for right in the city of SAV since then and by what I think would be some margin. So, a truly historic (96 years) hit is a real possibility there. It is crucial that ZR amounts don't rise above here because that's when the damage and outages would rapidly increase. The JMA and ICON qpf's would cause massive damage. Hopefully they're both overdoing their 1.25" (which would be near the severe hit of 1922) as often is the case with the JMA. As it is at this near 1/2" level, it would already cause quite a number of problems for sure, including many outages and slippery driving/walking in certain areas, especially if it gets down to 30. We've got numerous very large oaks in and near the city that would be a big concern with just the 0.50" of ZR.

The comparison to the surface wx maps of the massive Jan 1922 ZR is eerily similar.

Keeping in mind the Irma hit, there have been other instances of a big tropical hit in the area followed by a sig wintry hit somewhere within the CHS-SAV corridor the following winter: 1894/1895, 1898/1899, 1989, 1979/1980 come to mind.
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Ahh yes the infamous January 1922 knickerbocker storm, which led to the collapse of the Knickerbocker theatre in Washington DC due to the weight of the snow and dropped about 24-36" of snow in Roxboro, Oxford, & Henderson, NC gave you an insane ice storm. Very interesting to learn there were several sides to this insane storm and that the general setup is potentially similar to that. This doesn't mean by any stretch of the imagination the sensible impacts here in NC will be similar but interesting nonetheless...
 
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