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Wintry December 28-29th Possible Winter Storm

1300m said:
This is why I've stated multiple times I refuse to give up on this storm until the 12z Wednesday model runs.
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You would think models would be able to have a storm down by 3 to 5 days in advance, not the day before! That's poor model performance if u ask me
 
Stormsfury said:
Oh boy...and this is a potential sneak attack waiting to happen. How many times in the past have SE winter storms seemingly come out of nowhere.
I tell you this..if the ICON verifies the best with this setup, we know straight where to go to in the future ...

In all seriousness, the setup just seems it would be capable of delivering a little more than what's showing IMO.
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Winter storms don't come that late out of nowhere! We at least know 3 days before usually.
 
I hope to see a few token sleet flakes or possibly a light glazing on the pine trees, but it's almost looking like that I may be too far west for this storm system. While this winter has at least been colder than the past two (so far), the level of frustration continues to remain astronomically elevated.
 
Clayton Reid said:
Winter storms don't come that late out of nowhere! We at least know 3 days before usually.
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See earlier this month for one prime example of that.

The Christmas 1989 Snowstorm was picked up until it basically happened. From time to time, particularly in the SE, sneak ups do happen.

Another example, the day after the Jan 2000 Carolina Crusher which also was not well forecast had a trailing subtle s/w. When this reached the Lowcountry of SC, it suddenly blossomed and put a 50 mile by 30 mile area of 2-3" of snow down in just about a 3 to 4 hour window. CHARLESTON nightmare for Rush Hour morning traffic.

Anyway, the s/w in question isn't or won't be in the RAOB network until Wednesday, and this setup is fairly volatile. Subtle changes can lead to drastically different outputs. The setup does have potential still.
 
1300m said:
Majority of members with a very stout shortwave similar to the ICON. If the Euro makes a move towards this tonight, I'm giving this idea much more credibility.
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Which source do you use for the h5 vort?
 
Uhm.

uhm.gif
 
Webberweather53 said:
Yeah Shawn, no doubt about it the GEFS dried up a lot this run. This 0z suite has been a dumpster fire thus far minus the DWD ICON
View attachment 2320
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Okay, so I looked over the ICON again, for the 00z at h5, and noticed that the wave gets sheard apart basically, but then just magically absorbs/phases/whatever with energy in the Southern stream area and turns stronger before the NS swooshes it out or so. What is causing that one frame breakup and reassembly? Is it the southern energy?

It held the same look in the end with the separation after that frame like the 18z.
 
Shawn said:
Okay, so I looked over the ICON again, for the 00z at h5, and noticed that the wave gets sheard apart basically, but then just magically absorbs/phases/whatever with energy in the Southern stream area and turns stronger before the NS swooshes it out or so. What is causing that one frame breakup and reassembly? Is it the southern energy?

It held the same look in the end with the separation after that frame like the 18z.
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All the excess precipitation that's going off northwest of the low off the Carolina coast is creating cyclonic vorticity and potential vorticity below the level of maximum heating that amplifies the shortwave around day 3 as it passes/approaches the TN valley/Apps. This precipitation feeds back onto the synoptic-scale pattern and thus the storm grows non-linearly
 
Euro looks a little better for Wednesday and system by probably too warm for most tho
 
Interesting, is this a stronger wave coming off the 00z Euro! Time will tell!!!!
 
Guys, I don't have the best maps; but the wave i think looks better on the 00z Euro so far...
 
Shortwave definitely stronger coming out of the Rockies by 48 hours, even if the actual results still suck we took a step in the right direction this run towards getting a storm.
output_4BHTcf.gif
 
Yeah; this Euro idea with a stronger/better looking wave shows we aren't going to figure this out for at least a few more cycles.
 
2 or 3 more cycles with energy consolidating and looking better like this, and it's a whole different ball game. I'll take it at this point, and call this baby step a win.
 
We had a stronger s/w to begin with but this was offset by the longwave trough digging further south of New England at day 3 creating more confluence that sheared the wave....
 
Webberweather53 said:
We had a stronger s/w to begin with but this was offset by the longwave trough digging further south of New England at day 3 creating more confluence that sheared the wave....
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Yes, you've been mentioning this. Was that stronger than the 12z cycle?
 
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