Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Not sure if I'd say that, the Euro pretty much held serve overall as did the ICON as their specific solutions remain eons apart
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looks like a bit more precip and slightly further north on the 6z NAM.
Northwest trend begins? Lol
MRX hasn't given up the ghost yet... and they're notoriously conservative.
Mrx calling for several light events.
06Z NW Trend!! Ummm more Precipation!!
If you watch low-pressure 0ff 06z Nam u will notice a less suppress low!!
The low is closer to the coast.
Could this be a beginning of a NW trend Shawn
The wave still looked like poop, but I think there was more activity (pieces) floating around in the South and a couple others swinging in. It's not great, and off one run of the NAM after seeing the Euro and UKMET tonight, I can't commit to any idea like that.
Oddly, the wave we have been tracking looked worse vs 00z.
I should note, there are changes with the Northern Branch. We'll see what happens for 12z.
I would like to note that the Superswiss model that Webber said is pretty good, as of 00z, had snow for more people. The domain/maps are centered over Virginia, but I can see enough to figure out it's coming up from the South through SC, parts of GA, and into NC.
It's not insanely wet, but enough to cause problems. More as you get closer to the coasts.
It's not insanely wet, but enough to cause problems. More as you get closer to the coasts.
How about the RGEM Model??
only out to 24 on TT. Edit: precip more robust. Double edit: fizzles out like previous run.. heh
That model is way colder than others... what's up with that?
That RGEM isn't quite in range for it's prediction of wave #2, but I can say that it looks like it wants to shunt it South. Hard to tell, I used the satellite simulation and it was trying it's best out there after wave #1.
gawxnative
Member
HMMMM... well FFC is a bit "late" with their AFD, interested to see which way they go
If I was them, I'd stay the course with "no clue how much precip" like they recently stated and not touch much of anything (aside from lowering pops) until 12 or 00z tomorrow.
gawxnative
Member
Well they ve posted it on Twitter, but not online yet... Basics are Cold in place, moisture starved and trended "south" so mix ZR/IP south of Metro ATL to Athens line
Yeah our guys lowered pops a bit ago and said they still aren't sure, basically.
gawxnative
Member
Well for all of us the good thing is not having to take School system impacts into account this week...
Would really be quite depressing if the Midlands some how wiff on all these opportunities coming up.. hoping for the best though.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
The 1km Swiss model shows a lot of snow in NC at the onset of the event, still snowing on this frame but there's already 2-4" in Fayetteville.
Is that for the precip tomorrow or for the event Thursday night?
Flo
Member
Everyone local to SC is now saying no precip of any kind this week or next.
raine1212
Member
Our precip. chance was lowered to 30% but added rain/snow for Thursday morning between 8am and 10am. If we get anything I prefer the snow, no ice please not in this area.
Well there is a pink sky this mornin'. Maybe we should forcast the old fashion way. LOL! The clouds are beautiful.
Gotta cash in within the next week and a half here in SC, I worry about later down the road
Flo
Member
I know TWC sucks and all that but they had CAE with many chances in their 10 day forecast yesterday morning. Now they have 0. They are clearly all in on the drier solution.
MichaelJ
Member
As you should be. While I don't think we torch a lot after the 10th or so, I do think the cold will relax quite a bit and then you know what happens. We get tons of moisture but temps become the issue and only those in the mountains will actually be cold enough to support mostly snow. Still the threading the needle with temps and precip is how we normally get snow/wintry weather and we just have to hope the timing matches up sometime before it ends.
tractor girl
Member
Feel similarly in ATL. Dumpster fire is coming.
I've definitely already took notice to that. But things could change, as I see it, we have two shots here early on. One Thursday night, which looks dryer than the Sahara desert now, and that one on New years, which the GFS is painting a similar look from the storm in early December. CMC has a better look for us. But who knows...
Atleast you all saw a little something depending on which side of ATL you live on.
BHS1975
Member
All we can hope for is a surprise like the last event.
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tractor girl
Member
Was on southeastern side, saw flakes fall that quickly melted. did not experience the lush 10" snow that everyone NW of me got.
At least bunch of folks in LA, MS and AL got a lot of snow who rarely ever see it. SC is due, as is south/east Atlanta and Athens.