• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Wintry December 28-29th Possible Winter Storm

This GFS likely won't be much different for our storm. Through 42, basically the same.

Sorry.
 
tractor girl said:
This first storm is all but not happening for N GA. I'm gonna enjoy the cold weather a bit and look for something in early Jan.

namconus_ref_frzn_us_48.png
Click to expand...
Well not sure when NAM became the new king!? GFS already looking better
 
The geopotential height contours are orientated a little more this run s.t. that the flow overall is increasingly west-northwesterly instead of WSWly thru about 60 hours which argues for more drying
 
If anything, less precip for 00z GFS, or maybe South. Whichever.
 
If the ICON wants to hold on to the storm; it's going to get shown up. I just can't anymore.
 
Trying to come back to life at 72! SC CAE/CHS/SAV special
 
Just looking at the 00z ICON. Another big hit. What a silly model. Either it's going to make the Euro & GFS look like crap, or it needs to be fixed.
 
its over for our area i think unless a miracle happens but if i lived towards the coastal regions of SC and GA i would still keep a eye on this.
 
I don't know why, but here. It's sn, ip, zr, the whole shebang. Heavier precip in some places, than even the 18z.

00z German Silly Model:

here.png
 
Shawn said:
Just looking at the 00z ICON. Another big hit. What a silly model. Either it's going to make the Euro & GFS look like crap, or it needs to be fixed.
Click to expand...
Why are you putting more stock in the GFS and Euro when they have been all over the place? This at least seems to have some consistent merit to it but I here you. Edit: I see your point. Its kinda over the place too now that I think about it
 
Shawn said:
Just looking at the 00z ICON. Another big hit. What a silly model. Either it's going to make the Euro & GFS look like crap, or it needs to be fixed.
Click to expand...
Only thing I recall on this is, it did well on last years storm
 
Clayton Reid said:
Why are you putting more stock in the GFS and Euro when they have been all over the place? This at least seems to have some consistent merit to it but I here you
Click to expand...

Because the Euro is easily the best scoring model at H5 in the world. I've watched the GEFS and EPS get progressively drier each run since the trends have started.
 
Well folks....I think the best shot is from SAV to CHS and unless I see something trend better, I hope they get some wintry weather for sure.
 
I am definitely routing for the GFS, CMC, and Euro to fall to the German model. I am not even kidding.
Do you know how nice it would be to have 13/4 KM model that we could turn to that verifies? Right now, all I feel like I have is the Euro, Ukmet, EPS, and GEFS. We are ready for another contender!

Its a Winter wonderland for a lot of people. And aside from it's ridiculous 2 inches + on previous runs in CAE, it will not let freakin' go of the idea of a stronger, more separated wave with more southern energy & wind influence. Like, can something be this wrong for so long? Sure, I have no experience with it. But my, it is set in stone on that model, it seems.
 
Last edited:
deltadog03 said:
Well folks....I think the best shot is from SAV to CHS and unless I see something trend better, I hope they get some wintry weather for sure.
Click to expand...

ZR accretions barely in SAV. KCHS .16" pocket of .20" Dorchester and Collection County.

Not sure of the validity of this but is the wave in question even in the RAOB network?

(Watch the EURO go full blown nuts on the 00z cycle...)
 
Stormsfury said:
ZR accretions barely in SAV. KCHS .16" pocket of .20" Dorchester and Collection County.

Not sure of the validity of this but is the wave in question even in the RAOB network?

(Watch the EURO go full blown nuts on the 00z cycle...)
Click to expand...
I thought the wave in question, wouldn't even be onshore of the west coast until Wednesday. So, maybe not?
Nevermind...I see Webber provided the answer.
 
Storm5 said:
Lol people doubting that. They must be new or really young and don’t know you’ve been around the block
Click to expand...

LoL I've been around when John Oldshue (former 33/40 met) now doing this http://southeastsky.com/ started this board and then Daniel Lamb last I knew at NWS in JAN I think... And a young teenager named Matt Grantham soaking up knowledge and now at NWS BMX... and Fred Gossage working it at Fox6... and I'm proud of all of them and others...Yup I'm old and one of the original members. LoL all good I'm just not around as much thing called life unless some potential weather mischief presents itself...
 
Webberweather53 said:
It won't enter the network until Wednesday
Click to expand...

Oh boy...and this is a potential sneak attack waiting to happen. How many times in the past have SE winter storms seemingly come out of nowhere.
I tell you this..if the ICON verifies the best with this setup, we know straight where to go to in the future ...

In all seriousness, the setup just seems it would be capable of delivering a little more than what's showing IMO.
 
Clayton Reid said:
Yes! We keep taking the bait over and over only for these models to take us on these wild goose chases for nothing! So tried of this!
Click to expand...

Lol I'm just having a little fun haha, but the ride is part of the reason why we do this! We learn just as much, if not more from our failures & busts than our successful winter storms
 
The DWD ICON will save us all. It has my current temps in my back yard even the wind down to 1mph modeled correctly from 00z!
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top