Clem282340
Member
Is the 18z Canadian model stronger than 12z Canadian run18z Canadian:
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Webberweather53
Meteorologist
The high resolution global German model (DWD-ICON) held serve, and produced a big, snow/ice storm for the Carolinas & GA, a coastal low developed off the mid-atlantic coast and dropped significant snow along the I-95 corridor. It's much further NW of most guidance atm.
Gave areas in/around Fayetteville, NC accumulating snow w/ the system on the 27th
Gave areas in/around Fayetteville, NC accumulating snow w/ the system on the 27th
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Yellow Snow
Member
FFC has added a 50% chance of ZR to the Athens forecast for Thursday.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Yeah, I definitely noticed, the model is pretty respectable. Worth mentioning that the German model's resolution is highest of any global model atm (even higher than the ECMWF) and its slow physics scheme is imported from ECMWF.
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
18Z NAVGEM definitely way more amped.
Cad Wedge NC
Member
This is the model that led the way on the last event. It has the hot hand right now. It increased totals as we approached verification. I would pay close attention to it for this event.
GeorgiaGirl
Member
Oh believe me, FFC used to be worse with conservatism, I actually think they sometimes get too bold now but the bottom line is, unless we see a lot of change from the models, that forecast will change...
I just hope the CMC is right as I really don't want an ice storm, but I'd like to see sleet. I'd be good with a glaze too but anything much more than that will be a headache.
I just hope the CMC is right as I really don't want an ice storm, but I'd like to see sleet. I'd be good with a glaze too but anything much more than that will be a headache.
Yellow Snow
Member
FFC tends to be conservative because so many schools/businesses/organizations in metro Atlanta - heck, even here in Athens - link their inclement weather policies directly to NWS watches/warnings (at least that was the case when I was responsible for risk management at a corporate travel company in Atlanta from 2001-2008). In fact public school districts tend to use such NWS advisories as the sole trigger for class cancellations...so you better be danged sure you're right if you make a prediction that disrupts the lives and commerce of a metroplex containing six million people. I don't envy their job one single bit.
So, for my Midlands of SC friends. This is the German model output for Lexington, SC. This should give you an idea of a worst case scenario for your areas if it were to verify: 1.41 inches of liquid as icy.
There are some counties that are on school break
NAM is gonna build in a heck of a wedge it appears. Yes long range NAM and just outside the window but you get the idea.
Also it's outside the NAM range but the wedge is really starting yo build in
Check out the images from the nam I posted. That screams wedge. And building in
Clem282340
Member
What about the Anderson sc areaSo, for my Midlands of SC friends. This is the German model output for Lexington, SC. This should give you an idea of a worst case scenario for your areas if it were to verify: 1.41 inches of liquid as icy.
Cad Wedge NC
Member
yep, those sub-zero dews in NC and up-state SC look a little concerning.
tractor girl
Member
Could we expect to see winds pick up over the 15-20mph range during this event? Ice is bad enough by itself.
BPATL
Member
No offense to anyone on here , but most of you were not born yet, but the January 8th ice storm of 1973 in ATL and NGA was utterly epic and possibly may never be repeated again..26 degrees for a week, and continuous waves of rain..Deforestation was massive, power out at my parents house for 17 days and no water..I have had a lot of Champagne tonight but will never forget that one even when I am drooling in a nursing home...LOL