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Wintry December 28-29th Possible Winter Storm

Yeah I was out of the loop due to being on the road but the 12z suite looked like still game on to me.
 
Portion of Rah NWS discussion and sounds spot on to me for now.... still a lot of specifics to work out

For now, it is just too early to get too caught up in forecast details. What
all NC residents should know now, is that there is an
increased/elevated risk for winter weather weather late Thursday
through Friday night. The afternoon package will reflect a strong
dose of NC climatology WRT to precip-type, which is also supportive
by partial thicknesses which indicate predominately snow across the
Piedmont and a wintry mix of snow-sleet and possibly some freezing
rain across the Sandhills and Coastal Plain.
 
Probably off-topic, but any significant ice in Savannah up through Charleston would potentially be devastating to the magestic trees in that area. What a beautiful place...
But the weenie in us wants to reel in something! Good luck to everyone!

GaWx said:
The 3 major models (at least) as well as their ensembles are clearly saying increasing risk of a major and potentially historic ice storm for the SAV-CHS corridor 12/28-9. The very rare combo of parameters is there on all of these 12Z runs: a very cold as well as large 1043ish high centered over SE Canada/NE US, a very strong wedge near 1030, a warm/moist W to WSW flow at H5 (WSW flow would be wetter) over the top, and, very importantly, a weak surface low that takes the rather rare very far SE track well E of Daytona/250-300 miles S to SE of SAV-CHS. Though they've had minor ZR at various times over the years, the city of SAV, itself, hasn't had a major ZR in nearly 100 years! So, that tells me how exceedingly rare is the combo of ingredients to cause this there and to not expect it to actually occur. Why would it happen now if it hasn't in nearly 100 years? CHS obviously has a higher chance based on higher frequency there/being further NE. But for SAV at least, the best bet is always either no ZR or minor ZR, especially with this still being 96+ hours out and the models having been atrocious. Regardless, in this case, a nontrivial risk appears to be there and future model trends will be watched closely.

Edit: check out the MJO! Weak 8 to weak 1 (inside circle) has been coldest on average in SE US based on over 40 years of data.
Click to expand...
 
deltadog03 said:
Gfs trendjng better but still handling the wedge poorly still not building in very well and destroying it quickly. High is well anchored in
Click to expand...
That’s typical of what usually verifies. Wedge typically holds longer than models predict.
 
So I've spent the past 20 minutes searching Twitter for the report I filed from the February 2015 ice storm here (yes, I know it's Christmas Eve. I cooked a huge dinner earlier and now everybody in my house is passed out in a turkey coma, and I'm too mad from the Falcons game today to take a nap, LOL).

We had 0.4" of ZR from that storm, the only time in 7 1/2 years in our house we have lost power (about 24 hours) from weather. I had confused the storm originally with the February 2014 snow/sleet event (both 2014 and 2015 were around Valentine's Day). That 2014 storm was modeled for ice up here originally, but the warm nose stayed supressed and we ended up with 6" of mostly snow (we had a good thump of sleet originally).

The 2015 storm bowed over our trees substantially (I forgot just how much until I started looking at pics I tweeted during that storm). I also remember hearing transformers up the street shorting out that night.

Given the shots our trees have taken in North Georgia from Irma and the heavy, wet snowfall from earlier this month, seeing substantial ZR accumulation (the latest GFS gives MBY 0.38") is quite concerning. Interesting to see the 0z suites run tonight.

Hope everybody has a very Merry Christmas! Feel like we'll be checking in here often the next few days. Thanks for all the knowledge share and info ... given it's Christmas week and even fewer people than usual are paying attention to the weather, let's make sure we check in on family, friends and neighbors if the models hold serve over the next few days.

--30--
 
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