Stormlover
Member
huh?
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Stormlover
Member
where do you get that for other locations?Here is a comparison between everything from the Canadian, to the Icon, to the Australian model for Atlanta precip amount wise:
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
The Serbian MOS guidance (MOS statistically adjusts for various model biases and produces output based on these bias corrections) looks pretty reasonable in Fayetteville, w/ about 0.20" QPF from both the 27th & 28-29th storm, which is what the 12z EPS had here. The DWD-ICON is a big outlier for now
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That's a cool chart. Here is a map of total precip that's accumulated prior to the 28th system with ICON (into Thursday night 3am).Here is a comparison between everything from the Canadian, to the Icon, to the Australian model for Atlanta precip amount wise:
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That's a cool chart. Here is a map of total precip that's accumulated prior to the 28th system with ICON (into Thursday night 3am).
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Okay wow. Then that means the ICON is putting almost 0.8 down in ATL for the second deal/Wintry one.
Can you imagine the chaos if that was right w/ other modeling showing such low totals? Cause' we know the NWS isn't giving the ICON any credit; lol.
Im guessing that would be mostly all rain in GA since temps are forecast to be above freezing according to the NWS.That's a cool chart. Here is a map of total precip that's accumulated prior to the 28th system with ICON (into Thursday night 3am).
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pcbjr
Member
If all of that blue translated to snow, I'd figure Santa made a 2nd run ...That's a cool chart. Here is a map of total precip that's accumulated prior to the 28th system with ICON (into Thursday night 3am).
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Folks - It's Christmas night - enjoy family and friends; weather will be here for you tomorrow.
Best!
Phil
DadOfJax
Member
The 20/59 corridor in AL is looking a little more interesting each day....
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
The exceptionally high resolution Swiss model (1km res) had some token snow flurries/sleet pellets in Fayetteville.
I would have taken its 18z run yesterday to the bank and cash in for the winter.
I would have taken its 18z run yesterday to the bank and cash in for the winter.
Lol was just about to post this. I'm interested in seeing if it does what the 18Z GFS did and shift the precip farther South on it's next run. The 12Z GFS had wintry precip in same general area as this FV3 12Z run. FV3 just has higher precip totals in areas.On a side note; I'd like to say that this system is a good one to test some of these lesser known models on!
12z FV3 vs 12z GFS:
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Here is the 27th wave precip for those to have to see how much comes with 28/29th system Shawn posted of FV3.
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bud006
Member
Hi everybody, and Merry Christmas!
Couple of posts really got me thinking today. One about some of the "other" models, such as the German model and the FV3 model. Always looking to learn so going to spend some time digging into those. German model has been really aggressive with my area (50 miles N of Atlanta, western shore of Lake Lanier). There is so much frustration with the GFS (warranted) and the Euro seems to lose storms at times, so it would be great to have some other reliable options out there.
Second point is the timing of this potential storm and what it could mean if it verifies. Think about this (and mods, I want to be respectful about adding to the discussion; please move to banter if you feel appropriate to do so): the Atlanta metro area has more than 6 million people. It is the week of Christmas. Many people, including myself, are blessed to be off work for the entire week. There are tons of people traveling, and the I-85, I-75 and I-20 corridors are major travel routes through the Southeast.
It doesn't take much ZR to disrupt travel and daily activities. Add in the cold in advance of the potential event and the cold afterward, and it would not take a lot of moisture to really make things a mess for millions of people and major interstates and the world's busiest airport during a very busy travel week, a week in which I'd say fewer people than usual are paying any attention to potential weather issues.
Again, hope this doesn't clog up the thread or discussion. Just a couple of points I thought might be relevant to the discussion. The model madness within 72 hours of the event starting is disturbing, but that's where we're at this evening. Once we get the energy onshore, maybe we can hone in on a more specific solution. At the end of the day, the margin of error always is razor-thin in this part of the world.
--30--
Couple of posts really got me thinking today. One about some of the "other" models, such as the German model and the FV3 model. Always looking to learn so going to spend some time digging into those. German model has been really aggressive with my area (50 miles N of Atlanta, western shore of Lake Lanier). There is so much frustration with the GFS (warranted) and the Euro seems to lose storms at times, so it would be great to have some other reliable options out there.
Second point is the timing of this potential storm and what it could mean if it verifies. Think about this (and mods, I want to be respectful about adding to the discussion; please move to banter if you feel appropriate to do so): the Atlanta metro area has more than 6 million people. It is the week of Christmas. Many people, including myself, are blessed to be off work for the entire week. There are tons of people traveling, and the I-85, I-75 and I-20 corridors are major travel routes through the Southeast.
It doesn't take much ZR to disrupt travel and daily activities. Add in the cold in advance of the potential event and the cold afterward, and it would not take a lot of moisture to really make things a mess for millions of people and major interstates and the world's busiest airport during a very busy travel week, a week in which I'd say fewer people than usual are paying any attention to potential weather issues.
Again, hope this doesn't clog up the thread or discussion. Just a couple of points I thought might be relevant to the discussion. The model madness within 72 hours of the event starting is disturbing, but that's where we're at this evening. Once we get the energy onshore, maybe we can hone in on a more specific solution. At the end of the day, the margin of error always is razor-thin in this part of the world.
--30--
GeorgiaGirl
Member
JMO, but this really isn't 2014 like imo with the danger that posed if any precip fell at all, yes it's been cold today but before the last day and a half to two as with 2014, it was sustained cold for much longer before the event happened...early Jan had the major cold snap for example. It won't be an everything falls sticks everywhere situation in the Deep South states I don't think...
There is a power danger though, as always with ice. Just think about it, if this is a bust low on QPF, man oh man.
For GA: The 12Z GEFS mean is suggesting significant icestorm from near or just south of a line from Tony to GaGirl (N of this line may be mainly IP though lighter qpf) and then S of this to S/SW of MCN and then E to somewhat SW and S of SAV. For the areas in as well as S and SW of SAV, the QPF is about the heaviest, near 0.35", which would be at or near the most ZR for a storm since 1922.
tonysc
Member
Yes it was a total surprise.
As you know, as well as many, even if we only get a .25" of ZR it will be light enough that it can accumulate quickly.
I should say if we get that much qpf lol
NoSnowATL
Member
Latest RPM looking juicy for everyone. I don’t know how reliable this model is.
Great point, Chris. It isn't just the amounts. If it is spread out over longer periods, I'd think that the same amount of ZR would likely accumulate more
Meanwhile, I'm not sure if anyone mentioned this, but the 18Z German (ICON) has more WSW 500 mb flow than its prior runs, which seems to be leading to more qpf while still maintaining about as cold.
bud006
Member
Thanks Georgia Girl. I didn't want to draw a correlation to January 2014 because it was substantially colder for longer before that event and if my comments was translated as much, I apologize.
I was thinking about the heavy wet snowstorm we had here earlier this month, when it was 70 degrees within 48 hours of the event starting. We're lucky if we sniff 45 tomorrow, then cloud cover Wednesday and precip Thursday-Friday morning.
The power danger is real, especially with our trees in such a distressed state given Irma and the heavy snow earlier this month. What trees didn't fall in those two events are vulnerable even with light ZR.
--30--
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
The extremely high 1km resolution Swiss model looks like it's going to be much further NW of most guidance w/ our storm. The end of the 18z run just beyond 72 hours has some snow/sleet in upstate SC all the way back to Greenville-Spartanburg lifting northward into NC. Unfortunately I can't get any other regions aside from NC or SC.... Curious to see how this model evolves over the course of the next day or so
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
So, do we really have a shot at a winter storm here? I can't tell anymore.
gawxnative
Member
Also Chris, correct me if I'm wrong, but lighter QPF Rates will delay WAA from coming down to surface, in turn leading to a longer duration ZR event
Based on this as well as the more WSW H5 flow of the 18Z ICON, I do have to wonder if the common NW trends in the models will occur. If so, that could at least save SAV-CHS from getting a sig ZR since just a couple of degrees of warming could make the difference. Opinion?
dsaur
Member
Yeah, sometimes the sleet band is only 30 miles wide. I can be in sleet and it's snowing at the airport, and zr in Barnesville. And light qpf can still cause lots of issues if it sticks from the onset. Hope I'm in the sleet zone, lol. I'm already maybe getting sleet tomorrow night, so Thurs is still up in the air as to how cold it gets. Love these set ups, but that waa can cause headaches and heartaches, lol.
gawxnative
Member
Heck I remember I think in about 1974, we had a system that gave Snow North of ATL, ZR/IP through Metro, and there were Tornado Watches out below Macon...
@Webberweather53 it also looks like that swiss model has the precip starting on Thursday morning. It seems like most of the models were indicating more of a Thurs evening/Friday morning deal.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
As partially discussed on another forum (I'll expand more here), what will have to happen to get this storm to come northwest & deliver a major winter storm to the southeastern US includes one or more of the following:...
1) Stronger disturbance in the southern branch. Vorticity grows exponentially in the presence of pre-existing vorticity and/or stretching, having a stronger system to work with from the beginning will pay massive dividends for our odds to see a major storm, and our chances will increase non-linearly (increasing more quickly as the s/w grows more intense & vis versa)
2) More stream separation between the southern and northern branch waves east of the Rockies. This allows the storm not to be northern stream dominant and entices more moist west-southwesterly flow aloft that can push precipitation deeper inland across the SE US instead of dry northwesterly flow with one consolidated wave in the northern branch of the jet.
3) More progressive trough over SE Canada. The faster it lifts out, the less confluence there is, thus our storm & parent s/w can intensify
4 (extra credit)) Slower trailing disturbance in the northern branch behind our s/w as it leaves the Rockies wouldn't hurt either, and would allow our s/w to undergo barotropic energy conversion more quickly (Barotropic energy conversion is another way of saying a trough tilted against the mean flow (negatively tilted south of the jet core in the N hem) grows at the expense of the jet, drawing momentum from it and converting background kinetic energy into eddies).
In comparison to other guidance, all 4 of these parameters are tilted more favorably for a big winter storm in the German (DWD-ICON) model which is why its solution is so extreme...
DWD-ICON
UKMET
CMC
GFS
tractor girl
Member
Is it possible to post this same graphic but include the entire area instead of just NC?
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Yeah I noticed it was considerably faster, this is close to the truncation and a lot of the precipitation is near the edge of the domain, I'd like to see it move forward on the model and to the center of the domain. I'm actually not sure what its parent model is that provides the external boundary conditions which could have a pretty substantial effect on its forecast (for ex, the NAM is nested inside the GFS's global domain, if however the NAM was nested inside the CMC, ECMWF, or UKMET it would produce different solutions, especially closer to the edge of the NAM nest (like the Pacific NW, Caribbean, western Atlantic, etc. where it relies more on the parent model (the GFS).), nor am I currently aware of its biases but the model is very impressive in its own right to have a resolution of 1km and my experience with the model is that it's very solid esp in 48-60 hours, often completely obliterating the coarser 3km NAM & its WRF/NMMB cores, HRRR, & RGEM. For example, in the day preceding the early December winter storm, we had a morning w/ particularly low dew points that the HRRR, RGEM, & NAM completely botched, showing dews in the mid-upper 20s at best, we actually somehow got into the mid 10s which is where the super swiss HD had it. This is just one example, many of my meteorology friends at NC State could identify plenty more.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Unfortunately no I can't get northern GA.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
0z NAM is rolling, don't see any large changes yet out to 17 hours other than the surface high entering the northern Rockies and upper midwest looks a hair stronger
now if we can turn the H5 flow a bit WSW then thats a whole new ballgame
is it me, or does our flow looks more Westerly at this point, maybe a slight WSW?
It does. Just little bit.
It's not you.. look to be a little more moisture too me too!!
ForsythSnow
Moderator
Definitely looks like a slight WSW. Liking the looks this run. That should pull up more moisture if it continues.
Snowflowxxl
Member
Nice trend on that 12/27 for those in NC