Stormlover
Member
huh?I'm not throwing in the towel for this storm, but I'm throwing in the towel.
huh?I'm not throwing in the towel for this storm, but I'm throwing in the towel.
where do you get that for other locations?Here is a comparison between everything from the Canadian, to the Icon, to the Australian model for Atlanta precip amount wise:
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https://weather.us/forecast/xlwhere do you get that for other locations?
That's a cool chart. Here is a map of total precip that's accumulated prior to the 28th system with ICON (into Thursday night 3am).Here is a comparison between everything from the Canadian, to the Icon, to the Australian model for Atlanta precip amount wise:
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That's a cool chart. Here is a map of total precip that's accumulated prior to the 28th system with ICON (into Thursday night 3am).![]()
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Im guessing that would be mostly all rain in GA since temps are forecast to be above freezing according to the NWS.That's a cool chart. Here is a map of total precip that's accumulated prior to the 28th system with ICON (into Thursday night 3am).![]()
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If all of that blue translated to snow, I'd figure Santa made a 2nd run ...That's a cool chart. Here is a map of total precip that's accumulated prior to the 28th system with ICON (into Thursday night 3am).![]()
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Lol was just about to post this. I'm interested in seeing if it does what the 18Z GFS did and shift the precip farther South on it's next run. The 12Z GFS had wintry precip in same general area as this FV3 12Z run. FV3 just has higher precip totals in areas.On a side note; I'd like to say that this system is a good one to test some of these lesser known models on!
12z FV3 vs 12z GFS:
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Second point is the timing of this potential storm and what it could mean if it verifies. Think about this (and mods, I want to be respectful about adding to the discussion; please move to banter if you feel appropriate to do so): the Atlanta metro area has more than 6 million people. It is the week of Christmas. Many people, including myself, are blessed to be off work for the entire week. There are tons of people traveling, and the I-85, I-75 and I-20 corridors are major travel routes through the Southeast.
Yes it was a total surprise.Who remembers Jan 2000? Did that storm sneak up on us? I was in High School and remember it coming out of no where and we had 6" of snow here in Florence, SC. Even though forecasting has improved in those 17 years since then. Anything and everything is still on the table IMO.
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As you know, as well as many, even if we only get a .25" of ZR it will be light enough that it can accumulate quickly.For GA: The 12Z GEFS mean is suggesting significant icestorm from near or just south of a line from Tony to GaGirl (N of this line may be mainly IP though lighter qpf) and then S of this to S/SW of MCN and then E to somewhat SW and S of SAV. For the areas in as well as S and SW of SAV, the QPF is about the heaviest, near 0.35", which would be at or near the most ZR for a storm since 1922.
As you know, as well as many, even if we only get a .25" of ZR it will be light enough that it can accumulate quickly.
JMO, but this really isn't 2014 like imo with the danger that posed if any precip fell at all, yes it's been cold today but before the last day and a half to two as with 2014, it was sustained cold for much longer before the event happened...early Jan had the major cold snap for example. It won't be an everything falls sticks everywhere situation in the Deep South states I don't think...
There is a power danger though, as always with ice. Just think about it, if this is a bust low on QPF, man oh man.
Also Chris, correct me if I'm wrong, but lighter QPF Rates will delay WAA from coming down to surface, in turn leading to a longer duration ZR eventAs you know, as well as many, even if we only get a .25" of ZR it will be light enough that it can accumulate quickly.
The extremely high 1km resolution Swiss model looks like it's going to be much further NW of most guidance w/ our storm. The end of the 18z run just beyond 72 hours has some snow/sleet in upstate SC all the way back to Greenville-Spartanburg lifting northward into NC. Unfortunately I can't get any other regions aside from NC or SC.... Curious to see how this model evolves over the course of the next day or so
View attachment 2304
Yeah, sometimes the sleet band is only 30 miles wide. I can be in sleet and it's snowing at the airport, and zr in Barnesville. And light qpf can still cause lots of issues if it sticks from the onset. Hope I'm in the sleet zone, lol. I'm already maybe getting sleet tomorrow night, so Thurs is still up in the air as to how cold it gets. Love these set ups, but that waa can cause headaches and heartaches, lol.For GA: The 12Z GEFS mean is suggesting significant icestorm from near or just south of a line from Tony to GaGirl (N of this line may be mainly IP though lighter qpf) and then S of this to S/SW of MCN and then E to somewhat SW and S of SAV. For the areas in as well as S and SW of SAV, the QPF is about the heaviest, near 0.35", which would be at or near the most ZR for a storm since 1922.
Heck I remember I think in about 1974, we had a system that gave Snow North of ATL, ZR/IP through Metro, and there were Tornado Watches out below Macon...Yeah, sometimes the sleet band is only 30 miles wide. I can be in sleet and it's snowing at the airport, and zr in Barnesville. And light qpf can still cause lots of issues if it sticks from the onset. Hope I'm in the sleet zone, lol. I'm already maybe getting sleet tomorrow night, so Thurs is still up in the air as to how cold it gets. Love these set ups, but that waa can cause headaches and heartaches, lol.
Based on this as well as the more WSW H5 flow of the 18Z ICON, I do have to wonder if the common NW trends in the models will occur. If so, that could at least save SAV-CHS from getting a sig ZR since just a couple of degrees of warming could make the difference. Opinion?
Is it possible to post this same graphic but include the entire area instead of just NC?The extremely high 1km resolution Swiss model looks like it's going to be much further NW of most guidance w/ our storm. The end of the 18z run just beyond 72 hours has some snow/sleet in upstate SC all the way back to Greenville-Spartanburg lifting northward into NC. Unfortunately I can't get any other regions aside from NC or SC.... Curious to see how this model evolves over the course of the next day or so
View attachment 2304
@Webberweather53 it also looks like that swiss model has the precip starting on Thursday morning. It seems like most of the models were indicating more of a Thurs evening/Friday morning deal.
Is it possible to post this same graphic but include the entire area instead of just NC?
is it me, or does our flow looks more Westerly at this point, maybe a slight WSW?0z NAM is rolling, don't see any large changes yet out to 17 hours other than the surface high entering the northern Rockies and upper midwest looks a hair stronger
It does. Just little bit.is it me, or does our flow looks more Westerly at this point, maybe a slight WSW?
It's not you.. look to be a little more moisture too me too!!is it me, or does our flow looks more Westerly at this point, maybe a slight WSW?
Definitely looks like a slight WSW. Liking the looks this run. That should pull up more moisture if it continues.is it me, or does our flow looks more Westerly at this point, maybe a slight WSW?