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Wintry December 28-29th Possible Winter Storm

Throwing in the towel on anything involving ice is a dangerous thing to do but fortunately even if it is something it won't be as major as once thought.
 
NorthBamaWeather said:
Night and Day! Just insane...

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Basically.

You forecast an Ice Storm, people get milk, bread, and generators, nothing happens.

You forecast dry and cold, cars are sliding all over the place.
 
Man, the SREF.. isn't that being replaced eventually? Anyway, one insane member has almost 1.5 inches of QPF for CAE. The mean looks like 0.3 or so through the run.
 
Shawn said:
Man, the SREF.. isn't that being replaced eventually? Anyway, one insane member has almost 1.5 inches of QPF for CAE. The mean looks like 0.3 or so through the run.
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Yes, it's being replaced by the HREF which is almost in range for the 27th system. I really like the probability matched mean (PMM) product that's derived from it which eradicates dampening of an ensemble mean w/ range that occurs as uncertainty increases...

Here's a list of the HREF members, the NAM is included in this suite, in fact, all the ensemble members should look familiar in some, way, shape, or form. Additionally, all members are able to resolve convection w/ grid spacing < 4 km.
Screen Shot 2017-12-25 at 1.45.32 PM.png


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http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/href/
 
Webberweather53 said:
The NW trend is in full force on the NAM for our Wednesday wave... What looked like virtually nothing w/ a shortwave suppressed into oblivion off the SE US coast (like our 28-29th storm has become), a few days later, this is beginning to turn into legitimate event on some NWP models. Just another reason not to throw in the towel just yet for our storm on Thu/Fri. Give it another day or two
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Eric, I thought a NW trend on the 27th would lower our chance of a 28-29th storm? Didn't u say that?
 
Snowflowxxl said:
Yep clear trend to the other models. GFS has been about 2 steps behind all winter
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GFS was weak and very light to no precip before the other modeling caught on. So it sniffed it earlier, some just threw it out.
 
SD said:
Perhaps we need a dec 27 thread

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18Z GGEM is also further NW with precip for Wednesday (think 12z had some hints of wintry wx with this wave too). It goes back to the 12z run after 48 hours so don't know what it does with this wave yet.
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Nice to have a voice of reason. I think we'll end up with a middle ground most likely between models and even if it's not a lot of QPF, any ice can be a headache.
 
Webberweather53 said:
The GFS might be more suppressed this run but like the Euro it's also showing less confluence near Atlantic Canada at day 2.5-3, which gives our s/w more room to intensify
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If this happens and it is able to ramp up more then the NW trend would become our friend... still hanging on here

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18z Canadian is a non event outside the coast/far Southern GA: (the trend is clear)

I_nw_EST_2017122512_096.png
 
I think if your south of I-20 you have a shot at the heaviest (what "heavy") qpf there is. North and east of that into the upstate and NC will be colder and if enough moisture gets there it could be ok there
 
deltadog03 said:
I think if your looking for a big storm it's not going to happen. NAM is the NAM lol but it fits with other models so totally can't discount it.
With that being said a 1/4" of ice is still nothing to sneeze about.
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I was going to say....:) Anything over a slight glaze is too much, lol. I'm holding out hope for a colder column, and heavier sleet, or nothing here at all :) Well, snow is better than zr, so it can snow, lol. It's the Monday storm that has me thinking ahead, but seeing that low going by down there where it is late week, makes me think this thing can still turn on a dime...just a little adjustment here and there. T
 
Since the first wave is being discussed in here also I'll mention this here. Probably making more out of this than I should, but what the hell it's Christmas I'm in too much of a jolly mood to really give a crap either way. lol

000
FXUS62 KFFC 251954
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
254 PM EST Mon Dec 25 2017


.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Tuesday Night/...
No major forecast concerns in the short term period. 12Z model and
WPC guidance agree well with one another. Dry weather thru Tuesday
but as warm advection increases could see light rain possibly mixed
with sleet late Tues night. Should see no impacts as long as temps
stay in the mid to upper 30s as forecast but with very dry low
levels at onset could be some quick cooling to near freezing. Will
continue to monitor this closely.

SNELSON
 
Webberweather53 said:
Verbatim this is a classic norlun trough on the GFS by 90 hours with a low MSLP protrusion extending NW of our surface low off the Carolinas. These features are usually of more concern for New England wrt heavy, poorly forecast snowfall
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Does than mean the possible NW trend could be in our favor instead of our detriment this time??? I remember so many storms like the one in January where my backyard was on the northern edge of the precip at this lead time. I usually end up getting a sloppy mess or losing the storm to the mid-atlantic states.
 
Careful with the ICON maps, make sure you guys are not factoring in both waves for the ZR event for the deeper South.

Also, there is quite a precip hole throuhg Augusta/Lexington/Columbia. What is causing that? The NW flow/CAD?
 
packfan98 said:
Does than mean the possible NW trend could be in our favor instead of our detriment this time??? I remember so many storms like the one in January where my backyard was on the northern edge of the precip at this lead time. I usually end up getting a sloppy mess or losing the storm to the mid-atlantic states.
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It's possible but the lowering heights to the NW of our parent surface low offshore would shut-off the CAD through divergence which lowers the height of the CAD dome, and of all CAD erosion mechanisms these are usually the hardest forecast, thus it's uncertain whether this would actually help our situation here. We would probably not see any significant precipitation here in the SE US, these norlun troughs are cold-pool driven and we would need to be closer to the core of the upper trough, and in spite of low relative RHs, they can spark intense, confined areas of intense precipitation that can extend from the mid-Atlantic coast to the Great Lakes that are rarely forecast properly by NWP although the GFS tends to forecast them too often
 
Here is a comparison between everything from the Canadian, to the Icon, to the Australian model for Atlanta precip amount wise:

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