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Wintry December 28-29th Possible Winter Storm

Hoping the CMC will set the trend. Need to avoid the ice. Plus Tony will get his sleet if it's right lol.
 
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Wow, Euro, GFS, and Canadian all showing a big storm here. This looks to be about as much a sure thing you can get here for a big winter storm. Looks like it would have to be a total collapse not to happen.
 
Brick Tamland said:
Wow, Euro, GFS, and Canadian all showing a big storm here. This looks to be about as much a sure thing you can get here for a big winter storm. Looks like it would have to be a total collapse not to happen.
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The wave can die out. We will see; usually these things tend to amp up within the 24-36 hour range.
 
A snippet from FFC afternoon discussion.

"The forecast becomes more complex by Thursday as cold surface high
pressure pushes into the northeast US resulting in a strong wedge
setup along the eastern Appalachians. As has been noted previously,
forecast details will evolve as forecast clarity increases as we
approach this time frame. Regardless, some form of winter
precipitation becomes an increasing concern by Thursday into
Thursday night, especially for northeastern portions of the area. At
this point, the setup continues to appear to favor a freezing rain
event with an evident warm nose over the cold air wedging in at the
surface. Obviously, this could change if the degree and depth of
colder air increases, and this will need to be monitored over the
coming days. At this time, a rain/freezing rain mix was maintained
across portions of north/northeast Georgia from Thursday into early
Friday morning."
 
The 3 major models (at least) as well as their ensembles are clearly saying increasing risk of a major and potentially historic ice storm for the SAV-CHS corridor 12/28-9. The very rare combo of parameters is there on all of these 12Z runs: a very cold as well as large 1043ish high centered over SE Canada/NE US, a very strong wedge near 1030, a warm/moist W to WSW flow at H5 (WSW flow would be wetter) over the top, and, very importantly, a weak surface low that takes the rather rare very far SE track well E of Daytona/250-300 miles S to SE of SAV-CHS. Though they've had minor ZR at various times over the years, the city of SAV, itself, hasn't had a major ZR in nearly 100 years! So, that tells me how exceedingly rare is the combo of ingredients to cause this there and to not expect it to actually occur. Why would it happen now if it hasn't in nearly 100 years? CHS obviously has a higher chance based on higher frequency there/being further NE. But for SAV at least, the best bet is always either no ZR or minor ZR, especially with this still being 96+ hours out and the models having been atrocious. Regardless, in this case, a nontrivial risk appears to be there and future model trends will be watched closely.

Edit: check out the MJO! Weak 8 to weak 1 (inside circle) has been coldest on average in SE US based on over 40 years of data.
 
GaWx said:
The 3 major models (at least) as well as their ensembles are clearly saying increasing risk of a major and potentially historic ice storm for the SAV-CHS corridor 12/28-9. The very rare combo of parameters is there on all of these 12Z runs: a very cold as well as large 1043ish high centered over SE Canada/NE US, a very strong wedge near 1030, a warm/moist W to WSW flow at H5 (WSW flow would be wetter) over the top, and, very importantly, a weak surface low that takes the rather rare very far SE track well E of Daytona/250-300 miles S to SE of SAV-CHS. Though they've had minor ZR at various times over the years, the city of SAV, itself, hasn't had a major ZR in nearly 100 years! So, that tells me how exceedingly rare is the combo of ingredients to cause this there and to not expect it to actually occur. Why would it happen now if it hasn't in nearly 100 years? CHS obviously has a higher chance based on higher frequency there/being further NE. But for SAV at least, the best bet is always either no ZR or minor ZR, especially with this still being 96+ hours out. Regardless, in this case, a nontrivial risk appears to be there and future model trends will be watched closely.

Edit: check out the MJO! Weak 8 to weak 1 (inside circle) has been coldest on average in SE US based on over 40 years of data.
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Glad you're back and looking at models again!
Let's reel one in, now!
 
deltadog03 said:
I love how ffc only mentions NE GA as possible ZR ok.
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Lol it's crazy. FFC seems to like to discount the CMC just because of how it has been in the past years. They like to lean toward the ever flipping Euro and even worse GFS. Fortunately, they weigh the ensembles well, so their forecast doesn't leave the public in the dark.
 
ForsythSnow said:
Lol it's crazy. FFC seems to like to discount the CMC just because of how it has been in the past years. They like to lean toward the ever flipping Euro and even worse GFS. Fortunately, they weigh the ensembles well, so their forecast doesn't leave the public in the dark.
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FWIW, GSP office is tossing the CMC as well
 
pcbjr said:
Glad you're back and looking at models again!
Let's reel one in, now!
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Thanks. I don't know that I want to reel that kind of storm in and the worst case scenario is always a low possibility thus far out, but the potential is exciting to follow, regardless.
 
ForsythSnow said:
Lol it's crazy. FFC seems to like to discount the CMC just because of how it has been in the past years. They like to lean toward the ever flipping Euro and even worse GFS. Fortunately, they weigh the ensembles well, so their forecast doesn't leave the public in the dark.
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The irony here is both OP versions of those models are the worst case scenario for ice here and yet they're keeping the forecast grids as rain. lol It was the CMC as the worst case until 12z today. 12z CMC shifted more towards a snow/sleet mix vs. ice. This is also the first GFS run I've seen since the SE shifts in track that actually has the freezing rain in the immediate metro Atlanta area, it's been the only model that I've seen that's shown rain until today.
 
ForsythSnow said:
Lol it's crazy. FFC seems to like to discount the CMC just because of how it has been in the past years. They like to lean toward the ever flipping Euro and even worse GFS. Fortunately, they weigh the ensembles well, so their forecast doesn't leave the public in the dark.
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Well you have the euro is showing icing down to me. So it's an AFD why not say that it's not gonna hurt
 
And that's the thing even the gfs is icing to ATL now and it's trending colder with each model run
 
deltadog03 said:
And that's the thing even the gfs is icing to ATL now and it's trending colder with each model run
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Delta, has CAD ever produce snow for Atlanta? I have witness an onset of snow then a freezing rain and sleet. But never a pure beginning to end snow storm.
 
KCHS AFD has the ZR concern in their discussion. Good to see that they are closely monitoring it.

As for other regions discarding the CMC, it may be an aggressively outlier, but with 1040mb+ highs, the temperature scheme with sufficient reinforcing NNE flow and abundant overrunning moisture, the temp scheme may not be far off, considering this new upgraded product ... monitored but totally disregarded is kinda jumping the gun a little bit. If anything, the GFS would be the run I'd toss except for establishing a trend towards the consensus.
 
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