SimeonNC
Member
Baby steps, it seems better than last night.Welp, not having the Euro or CMC on your side is not good.
Baby steps, it seems better than last night.Welp, not having the Euro or CMC on your side is not good.
GaWx, do you know how far inland the precipitation occurred during the 1922 Savannah ice storm? I'm roughly 150 miles due east of Savannah and ever so slightly latitudinally north and was wondering if this was simply confined to the coast or all of the lower half of Georgia.
Any significant difference between the 12z and the 00z Euro you've seen?There's the difference maker, the trough over New England at day 3 is deeper than the GFS >>> more confluence >>> stretched/sheared s/w >>> more suppression
View attachment 2283
Any significant difference between the 12z and the 00z Euro you've seen?
EURO 35° with a TD below 10° in KCHS at hour 90. Seems to want to kick up the 1st wave a little bit too but failed. May also produce some NVA behind wave 1 on Wednesday.
Sure as hell looked squashed. Much more confluence and even WNW flow ay 500mb...
The Euro didn't increase the confluence near the eastern seaboard around day 3, so this is still clearly game on. Notice the heights are actually higher over Atlantic Canada out to 78 hours which argues for a tad less confluence and less shearing on our wave.
Here's the dz500/dt plot vs the 0z run for the Euro at 78 hours.
View attachment 2284
We need a few more runs like this to keep us in the game, another run or two with a deeper trough over New England at day 3 would seal the deal against us and we'd have no storm. It's a tad encouraging to see that we've at least put a momentary halt to the deepening trend w/ the trough over New England on the operational Euro
I have a feeling that this will be the trend, every other model has been showing improvement except for the CMC.We need a few more runs like this to keep us in the game, another run or two with a deeper trough over New England at day 3 would seal the deal against us and we'd have no storm. It's a tad encouraging to see that we've at least put a momentary halt to the deepening trend w/ the trough over New England on the operational Euro
I know we say this on a regular basis just to keep hope alive but the reality is the next 2-3 model suites are going to be very critical to fleshing out the fate of this system. Once our s/w gets close enough to the Pacific NW and our s/w in the northern branch over central Canada gets into the dense RAOB coverage in the northern US I think we'll begin to find a solution. The spread in the models is pretty substantial for day 3-4 and just a few minor tweaks at the synoptic scale could take this from 0 to 100 & vis versa...
So the general trend outside of the CMC op was good for now.
And the Euro. The Euro was a bit better initially with our wave (not great); and then went down hill... but still no precipitation.
It's good that the confluence situation stopped getting stronger. If it continued then you could likely toss the rest of the model suite.
For what it's worth, the JMA was really wet.
We essentially have the GFS, it's eventually successor the FV3, the DWD-ICON (german model), GFS Ensemble, CMC Ensemble, NAM, and the JMA completely on board, the UKMET is awkwardly riding the fence but certainly looked no worse than yesterday, and the Euro is a big no but it again looked no worse than yesterday, if anything slightly better at the synoptic scale w/ less confluence near the eastern seaboard. Really need to see the EPS
The Euro did a really poor job on the early December storm, I think only catching on about 2 days out!? And on the confluence, it's usually never as strong as modeled when we need it, hopefully it doesn't crap the bed on this storm!For what it's worth, the JMA was really wet.
We essentially have the GFS, it's eventually successor the FV3, the DWD-ICON (german model), GFS Ensemble, CMC Ensemble, NAM, and the JMA completely on board, the UKMET is awkwardly riding the fence but certainly looked no worse than yesterday, and the Euro is a big no but it again looked no worse than yesterday, if anything slightly better at the synoptic scale w/ less confluence near the eastern seaboard. Really need to see the EPS
For temps and thermal profiles, yes! Moisture, I'm not sure!What do yall think about the NAM this far out? I know it shows a mix over parts of SC and GA towards the 78-84hr time frame. Is it worth looking at that far out?
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
106 PM EST Mon Dec 25 2017
Little change in the thought that there could be some potential
wintry weather impacting the forecast area late this week due
to an arctic airmass and developing cold air damming regime.
However, uncertainty remains regarding the amount of moisture
available, the timing of precipitation onset and QPF amounts
due to inconsistencies among the medium range models handling
shortwave energy moving through the base of the upper trough.
The latest ECWMF has come in much drier for the Thur-Fri time
frame with more northwesterly 500mb flow keeping moisture to
our south while the GFS/Canadian continue to show overrunning
precipitation through the cold surface layer.
Relatively high confidence in a very cold airmass spreading
over the forecast area starting Wednesday night emanating from
a 1040mb arctic high pressure centered over southeastern Canada
and New England. Persistent northeasterly flow into the area
will usher in colder and drier air through Thursday. The ECMWF
and Canadian continue to be a bit colder than the GFS with the
near surface arctic air. Increasing clouds and light
overrunning precipitation expected to begin sometime Thursday
afternoon into Thursday evening and continue into the day on
Friday as moist southwesterly flow increases atop the near
shallow surface cold layer, in response to shortwave energy
moving through the base of an amplifying upper trough. The
operational GFS is a bit more progressive and less amplified
with this feature compared to the slightly more amplified
EC/Canadian solutions and therefore move end precipitation
earlier on the day Friday. The resulting coastal surface low
development from the GFS is weaker and further offshore than
the EC/Canadian resulting in less QPF over the forecast area.
It should be noted though that the GEFS mean QPF is about
double the operational run and more in line with the other
medium range models.
Euro ain't what it used to be! I'm glad to see some of Webbs and Larrys positive posts on how close this is to being a decent storm and how small changes in the players , can make big differences in the outcome!Has there been a situation where all the models were on board with something except the Euro and then the models dropped everything and followed the Euro?
View attachment 2286 View attachment 2287 View attachment 2288 I know it only goes out 48 hours but here is the rgem
I haven't looked but what is the mean amount near MCN? And that corridorYeah I agree Larry the EPS actually looked better for the lowlands of SC and southern GA, virtually unchanged for areas like Macon GA, Columbia SC, & Fayetteville NC. EPS mean precip decreased in the upstate and towards RDU but there's still a considerable amount on the suite verbatim, enough to where these areas are clearly still in the game
Any maps?Yeah I agree Larry the EPS actually looked better for the lowlands of SC and southern GA, virtually unchanged for areas like Macon GA, Columbia SC, & Fayetteville NC. EPS mean precip decreased in the upstate and towards RDU but there's still a considerable amount on the suite verbatim, enough to where these areas are clearly still in the game
View attachment 2286 View attachment 2287 View attachment 2288 I know it only goes out 48 hours but here is the rgem