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Wintry December 28-29th Possible Winter Storm

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And I imagine with the run being even colder, more sleet would be mixed in.
 
Could this just be a typical model bias if suppressing and underestimating precipitation only to bring it back 2 to 3 days before like back in early December?
 
The wave is starting to look horrible on modeling today. If you're looking for a bigger event. Need to watch it and see how much moisture is really going to get involved. Cold isn't the problem.
 
Clayton Reid said:
Could this just be a typical model bias if suppressing and underestimating precipitation only to bring it back 2 to 3 days before like back in early December?
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Two reasons arguing against the NW trend. Strong CAD signature and late starting system (most likely triggered by isentropic lifting mechanisms). There's no real solid area of SFC LP, just classic overrunning.
 
It would be our luck in the Midlands that we have the cold and no moisture. Idc if it’s ice, I’m game for anything.
 
Stormsfury said:
Two reasons arguing against the NW trend. Strong CAD signature and late starting system (most likely triggered by isentropic lifting mechanisms). There's no real solid area of SFC LP, just classic overrunning.
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Well we may have just missed out on another event then. Back to chasing this wild goose winter storm..
 
CAE went from 0.8 or so to 0.3 of ZR. Good trend for this area for those that know what the ZR monster is capable of.
 
Snowflowxxl said:
Euro was wayyyyyy to dry with the early December storm fwiw...
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This. I went back to look at the early December thread and try to compare what it put out around this same time frame. Main precip axis was further South and East compared to what actually transpired from what I can tell. When it comes to QPF totals best bet is to wait till we are in the 12KM and especially 3KM NAMs range (and other short range guidance especially RGEM) which will be soon. IIRC I think NAM was first to have the heavier snow axis further N/NW than the global and ensembles to. General idea from 12Z runs is the cold will be there and threat of major ZR system for CAD areas (maybe even areas not as pron to big CAD events) is increasingly plausible. QPF will work its self out and if general NW trend occurs like we see in regards to majority SE storms at this range, could be bad for CAD areas.
 
I imagine with such a strong CAD, even here in the Midlands, even it being light precip, there would be more sleet and less ZR.
 
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