Stormsfury
Member
Yeah, the GFS is pretty significant down this way like everything else has been. My region will be iced over or bone dry cold, no in between solutions this time. A rare issue but plenty of cold air is solidly there
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Yeah, the GFS is pretty significant down this way like everything else has been. My region will be iced over or bone dry cold, no in between solutions this time. A rare issue but plenty of cold air is solidly there
SimeonNC
Member
Yeah, the German model had me in the upper teens the entire time it was snowing. That would be insane for this part of the country.
Stormsfury
Member
Yeah I mean just subtle differences lead to drastically different outcomes. Basically all these OP runs are just basically an ensemble of OP runs which of come up with what they are programmed to do with their specific parameters and leads to varying solutions
Stormsfury
Member
Prelims was flat like the CMC
Well no bueno
SimeonNC
Member
Sorry if this is bant but this might be one of the most frustrating storms to track ever.
Still, I wonder what the Ensembles will have, along with the Euro. If The UK whiffs and Euro brings back the precip then we might be in for a long few days.
Still, I wonder what the Ensembles will have, along with the Euro. If The UK whiffs and Euro brings back the precip then we might be in for a long few days.
The 12z Ukmet is not out yet.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Although it's less popular, here's another reminder the German model (DWD-ICON) is probably a legitimate NWP model, it uses the same slow physics parameterizations as the ECMWF. Excerpt taken from Zangl et al (2014). This doesn't necessarily make its current solution more or less legitimate, but it should probably be given due consideration in subsequent winter storms...
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/qj.2378/abstract
Here are a few other excerpts from the 15th Workshop on Meteorological Operational Systems via ECMWF.
https://www.ecmwf.int/sites/default...stem-dwd-based-icon-icone-eu-and-cosmo-de.pdf
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/qj.2378/abstract
Here are a few other excerpts from the 15th Workshop on Meteorological Operational Systems via ECMWF.
https://www.ecmwf.int/sites/default...stem-dwd-based-icon-icone-eu-and-cosmo-de.pdf
I think it is out for Stormvista (not sure), and was likely looked at by Grit or someone on the other board.
Well Eric; I can say the German model had close to 2 inches of qpf here until yesterday, and dramatically altered it's idea. (this was both waves, btw). It's now around 0.25 - 0.3 which is an increase from 00z; but much more tame and realistic.
From what y'all have posted before on it it seems pretty good
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Yeah it's pretty good, just as, if not more legitimate than the GFS & CMC, however I've only seen it handle a few winter storms, thus I'm not aware quite yet of its biases in storms like this but it did very well with the event earlier this month. Even if it busts here I think it should be given regular use & scrutiny...
UKMET does indeed look like or worse than the 00z that was basically a wiff.
so does TWC only follow gfs to the death?! lol
GeorgiaGirl
Member
So which way does the Euro follow next up? The ukie or the icon?
If I was from a line of around Augusta, South, I would be paying close attention to this threat regardless. It's just trending drier for Central GA, SC, most of NC. Wanted to get that out there!!
Usually the UKMET is the best indicator, as last night.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
UKMET does indeed look like or worse than the 00z that was basically a wiff.
This was what the UKMET showed for the same time yesterday on its 12z run, this run is actually a big improvement if anything, the wave is much slower today by a country mile...
Stormsfury
Member
I know it handled several events well in the previous winter and did well with a couple of wedge events since it has been in operation, so I definitely have to give it some credence.
Also will be a decent case on how things play out locally around my region. Great test run so to speak
Trends seem neutral or slightly better for ATL. I believe ATL will still likely cash in on at least some wintery precip.
Thanks for that, I was just going by last night.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Yep, I completely agree. It certainly never hurts to have another legitimate opinion on hand...
SimeonNC
Member
So every model so far except for the CMC seems to be improving.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
The GEFS definitely didn't improve vs the 6z suite, much drier but still a solid amount of precipitation. We can still do quite a bit of damage w/ 0.2-0.4" QPF
I agree if y'all cold enough for snow that could be some nice ratios
Like looked like the case yesterday at 12Z, today's 12Z consensus is back to increasing the chance for an extremely rare significant ZR threat even way down here. Now that the potential start is only 3 days out, it is time to start thinking of this as a real and growing threat here. This threat is made all the more significant because, as hard as it may be to believe, there hasn't been a significant ZR hit (say 0.40"+ and probably even less) right in the city since the severe ZR of Jan of 1922!
As a guideline for here when there have been many hours of NE or NNE winds coming down far E SC down into SAV with wedges, which is being modeled, the city itself is usually no more than 2 F warmer and often is only 1 F warmer than CHS if both are getting significant precip. That is because the typical wedge induced NE to NNE surface winds do NOT cross the nearby ocean thus not allowing for modification. So, if I were to know CHS were to be 30 or even 31, I'd be thinking most likely 32 or 31 here.
Looking at the Jan 25-7 1922 old daily wx maps, the surface features being forecasted for 12/28-9 are eerily VERY similar with a very cold 1045ish MW high that then moves into the NE at 1043ish along with an unusually strong 1029 wedge signature all of the way down here. At the end of the storm, a weak low forms E of FL and takes a path ~250 miles SE of here.
The last 2 NAM runs and the CMC have it near 32 here. The GFS, which is very likely several degrees too warm, even has it down to near 35.
As a guideline for here when there have been many hours of NE or NNE winds coming down far E SC down into SAV with wedges, which is being modeled, the city itself is usually no more than 2 F warmer and often is only 1 F warmer than CHS if both are getting significant precip. That is because the typical wedge induced NE to NNE surface winds do NOT cross the nearby ocean thus not allowing for modification. So, if I were to know CHS were to be 30 or even 31, I'd be thinking most likely 32 or 31 here.
Looking at the Jan 25-7 1922 old daily wx maps, the surface features being forecasted for 12/28-9 are eerily VERY similar with a very cold 1045ish MW high that then moves into the NE at 1043ish along with an unusually strong 1029 wedge signature all of the way down here. At the end of the storm, a weak low forms E of FL and takes a path ~250 miles SE of here.
The last 2 NAM runs and the CMC have it near 32 here. The GFS, which is very likely several degrees too warm, even has it down to near 35.
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Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Yep, verbatim that still should come out to be about 4"-6" of snow here in Fayetteville with ratios around 15-20:1 and given how suppressed the storm is.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
This is a different look:
Yep it is lol they're definitely less impressive overall but you can probably increase the totals north of the midlands by 50% or double them because 10:1 ratios probably won't happen here if only snow is reaching the ground.
Clem282340
Member
So you are saying that the snow totals will double up here in the upstate of sc
I believe one thing we have on our side is that whatever does fall, hopefully snow, won't have to much of a hard time sticking due to the amount of cold air entrenched. Will have nice ratios i imagine even here in the midlands.
This could be a rare central GA and North parts of South GA into SC including sav and chs. Lighter in NGA to GSP and up to RDU ( but colder air and higher ratios)
Stormsfury
Member
That heavy blip south of AL in the GOM. Heavy convection?
.25" of qpf could be 3-4" of snow (if all snow that is)
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
yes, that's assuming the current low track holds, if it trends too far NW and you start having to deal w/ more IP then that'll be a problem and you can take what I just said and toss it out the window
And to go with webber's post about more NW; you'd likely have a lot more moisture to work with. 12z Euro will be interesting; I am waiting for the UKMET precip panels to see if they have improved.
Clem282340
Member
Okay thanks so you saying we could be getting around 3-4 inches of snow or it could be more than that if it stays on the same track
This is a different look:
After taking into account that that is mainly ZR in much of SC and GA, that is likely underdone in SE GA and SE SC because it very likely has the 32 line too far NW. See the 12Z NAM and CMC and you will see a colder surface on the southern edge of the wedge.
W
WeatherLC
Guest
So no chance of ice for n ga now?