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Wintry December 28-29th Possible Winter Storm

May want to temper expectations.....the trends are pathetic to say the least. It's going to be hard to get over this kind of sustained cold without any precip to show for it.
 
The suppressed solutions makes sense given the HP placement/strength. Need that thing centered a good best west to let the energy round the base. This thing is going to slide out to sea unless sometuing changes.
 
DadOfJax said:
The suppressed solutions makes sense given the HP placement/strength. Need that thing centered a good best west to let the energy round the base. This thing is going to slide out to sea unless sometuing changes.
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12z GFS just doubled ATL qpf, the trends are startling
 
whatalife said:
Better get ready to chalk this one up...


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Ya if no other models stop the drying out trend (which again, based on what we see, aren't ridiculous), we can probably chalk the 12z GFS up as just a waffle from what the trend is.
 
If the Ensembles/Other Globals show the same solution as the CMC then I'll be worried, this is a radical move from the other runs so I'm not stressing out over it.
 
SimeonNC said:
If the Ensembles/Other Globals show the same solution as the CMC then I'll be worried, this is a radical move from the other runs so I'm not stressing out over it.
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It wasn't far off from the 00z Euro.
 
I think at this point I don't expect much..Not going to lie, a little bummed out by the trends though. They are not good. GFS only hope? We ALL know how that plays out.
 
The Euro EPS mean was a clear drier trend.
 
I'd always bet on the Euro more than GFS but we do need to wait and see what it shows too. Is the 12z GFS a blip? We'll find out by looking at the ensembles and next Euro.
 
Guys, I'm just trying to curb expectations here with the clear trend, even beginning on ensemble suites. Not trying to be Mr. Grinch.

Doesn't help that I see the weather channel going all in with an Icy forecast. They're talking about ice and 20's in Columbia on their national show, and they have this whole snow vs sleet/ice vs rain graphic thing going on as I speak.
 
Here is the 12z German for those wondering: It's better than last night, a lot snowier/ip from about CAE North for ptype:
image.png
 
Shawn said:
Guys, I'm just trying to curb expectations here with the clear trend, even beginning on ensemble suites. Not trying to be Mr. Grinch.

Doesn't help that I see the weather channel going all in with an Icy forecast. They're talking about ice and 20's in Columbia on their national show, and they have this whole snow vs sleet/ice vs rain graphic thing going on as I speak.
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I understand, the thing is that I nor anyone else expects a major event, but it's still kind of early to completely give up on this storm. With the GFS and ICON coming in wetter, this is still something to watch.
 
Shawn said:
Guys, I'm just trying to curb expectations here with the clear trend, even beginning on ensemble suites. Not trying to be Mr. Grinch.

Doesn't help that I see the weather channel going all in with an Icy forecast. They're talking about ice and 20's in Columbia on their national show, and they have this whole snow vs sleet/ice vs rain graphic thing going on as I speak.
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With the ICON coming in wetter, I have a feeling so will the EURO. Although what might happen is that there might be focus on the lead wave since the ICON gets things going Thursday morning...much quicker than previous cycles
 
The GFS and CMC are worlds apart on the evolution of this shortwave over central Canada, the GFS tries to push it offshore New England by 66 hours, the CMC holds it back over the east coast longer like the Euro, which leads to more suppression. I have a suspicion that the GFS might be too fast as usual w/ the northern stream disturbance which could mean even more suppression if this is true, but we'll have to see what other guidance says. It's encouraging to see the very high resolution DWD-ICON (German model) staying the course and ramping up the QPF...
gem_z500a_atl_12.png
gfs_z500a_atl_12.png
 
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