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Wintry December 28-29th Possible Winter Storm

GaWx said:
After taking into account that that is mainly ZR in much of SC and GA, that is likely underdone in SE GA and SE SC because it very likely has the 32 line too far NW. See the 12Z NAM and CMC and you will see a colder surface on the southern edge of the wedge.
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Man idk if that's going to be all ZR for SC. So much cold air, i imagine alot of it is snow and sleet.
 
Webberweather53 said:
yes, that's assuming the current low track holds, if it trends too far NW and you start having to deal w/ more IP then that'll be a problem and you can take what I just said and toss it out the window
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Okay thanks so you saying we could be getting around 3-4 inches of snow or it could be more than that if it stays on the same track
 
Clem282340 said:
Okay thanks so you saying we could be getting around 3-4 inches of snow or it could be more than that if it stays on the same track
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You could if the QPF forecast is right but it rarely is in any NWP model, it's usually the variable w/ the most unpredictability. A further NW track would bring more intense QPF and WAA over top of the low level CAD dome but the amount of IP would inevitably increase so you'd probably lose some snow/sleet accumulations. There's an upper limit in the best possible case scenario to how much snow you could see in this setup if it ended up miraculously being all snow, and that limit gets larger the further NW you go...
 
Robert West said:
Man idk if that's going to be all ZR for SC. So much cold air, i imagine alot of it is snow and sleet.
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Not all ZR for all of SC. But S SC/SE GA are currently being modeled with mainly ZR. And the SE extent of 32 is likely too far NW on the GFS/GEFS. See the 12Z NAM and CMC for a likely more realistic view.
 
^^ For those in upstate asking about snow; clicking Stormfury's link will show you how anemic the precipitation is. The further North you are in this situation; the less precip you will get total in theory (on this setup). Rates can overcome for some areas if it's predominantly snow, but you need the moisture.
 
UKMET 00z
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UKMET 12z
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Many escaped by the skin of their teeth w/o much appreciable precipitation on this UKMET run, very close call overall but the precipitation swath remained similar... If this was the forecast verbatim inside 48 hours, I still wouldn't feel too bad about my chances in areas on the outside looking in from the northern side of the precipitation shield including the upstate, around Atlanta, and Fayetteville, NC. Even a minute shift in the precipitation shield and many would be in the game for some significant snows and vis versa. This is a few baby steps away from being a total bust w/ nothing or a very big deal.


ukmet_acc_precip_conus_120.png
 
As long as the EPS and Euro don't completely crush this system into utter nothingness this is definitely still game on. The GFS, NAM, and DWD-ICON models are apparently all in, the UKMET & GEFS are fairly unsure/on the fence, the CMC is a no go.
 
whatalife said:
UKMET 00z
437128ce094fe551e15e4af10b3cb884.jpg

UKMET 12z
e21350510c6a038997b468cfe35ca352.jpg
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This 12Z Ukmet is showing 0.4-0.5" of QPF for SAV-CHS for just the six hours ending 12Z 12/29! With much of this likely being ZR, this just adds to the increasing threat of a very rare and potentially historic sig icestorm throughout the corridor.
 
GaWx said:
This 12Z Ukmet is showing 0.4-0.5" of QPF for SAV-CHS for just the six hours ending 12Z 12/29! With much of this likely being ZR, this just adds to the increasing threat of a very rare sig icestorm throughout the corridor.
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Yeah it's definitely a rare situation indeed. Even the bone dry CMC blips some lightZR around SAV and CHS in a 6 hr window. Problem isn't having the cold in place, it's the degree of moisture that overruns thru isentropic upglide.
 
Eric, I may be a bit early; but the trough looks less on the 12z Euro so far that you were talking about?
 
Stormsfury said:
Yeah it's definitely a rare situation indeed. Even the bone dry CMC blips some lightZR around SAV and CHS in a 6 hr window. Problem isn't having the cold in place, it's the degree of moisture that overruns thru isentropic upglide.
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And there may not be much moisture with a W H5 flow vs WSW. But the 12Z Ukmet has a lot of moisture in our areas.
 
Well the wave is a bit "better" about to enter the USA. Lets see what the Euro says in the next little while!
 
Its coming in, still looks slightly better vs 00z; but it has to cross the rockies still; which will help shred it like Webber was speaking of yesterday.
 
It'll be different from it, but like I've said, 1/26/04 was an ice storm that pounded East GA into the Carolinas but shut Atlanta out, likely thankfully.

This one if it happens may be a case that is worse south.
 
Not sure if this was posted already, but the FV3 is also all in w/ our storm, there's an interesting s/w over the Great Lakes in a nearly optimal position to phase with the weak coastal low, in spite of the big trough off New England, this definitely leaves the door wide open to trend NW if the timing is anywhere close to what the FV3 is spitting out
fv3_us_ptype_2017122506_32.png
 
GaWx, do you know how far inland the precipitation occurred during the 1922 Savannah ice storm? I'm roughly 150 miles due west of Savannah and ever so slightly latitudinally north and was wondering if this was simply confined to the coast or all of the lower half of Georgia.
 
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^ To go with eric's post above with the FV3, there is more precip for many areas.
 
Weather rules I follow in Columbia. 32 or below and its dry. 33 and above and it pours buckets.
 
Here comes our wave; over Colorado now and dropping in a bit sharper than 00z. Nothing ground breaking here, but I think we may see more precip inland versus last night's run that had nothing. If it survives the trip.
 
12Z Euro colder and dry thru 72 but blossoming off SE coast 78
 
GaWx said:
This 12Z Ukmet is showing 0.4-0.5" of QPF for SAV-CHS for just the six hours ending 12Z 12/29! With much of this likely being ZR, this just adds to the increasing threat of a very rare and potentially historic sig icestorm throughout the corridor.
Click to expand...
If that verifies, it's going to wreck a bunch of your nice old trees. Hope for your sake the moisture dries up some. As for me things just keep getting worse, lol. I always miss the snow, but get the zr. Still, I'm in the bullseye so I hope it works for zr like it did for the recent snow. I can live with a slight glaze that melts quickly :) T
 
All we need is for the Euro to look slightly better. We don't need it to all of a sudden have the storm on top of us. Just a nice slow trend back to the NW.
 
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