• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Wintry December 28-29th Possible Winter Storm

1300m said:
In my opinion there is zero correlation between this event and the one earlier in December. I wasn't around then, but it was very obvious with the extreme jet-induced lifting that models were going to under predict the precipitation on the northwest side of the precipitation shield. This is an entirely different situation. If QPF increases, it'll be because the wave becomes stronger as it gets sampled better. As I discussed last night, the difference between significant precipitation and bone dry is really down to subtle interaction with the various pieces of energy and the 12z Euro today is only very slightly different than the 12z Euro yesterday at H5. This could go either way, but with so much energy flying around, it's honestly going to be hard for it not to interact more than what a lot of the 12z guidance today is showing. This one is a long, long way from being settled. In fact, the fun has really just begun!
Click to expand...
I agree, the only way we see as much qpf as the other storm is if this blossoms earlier.
 
if we can't get a good snow in western nc during this patter i dunno that we will all winter
 
Okay, I couldn't resist. The total precip was cut in half, because we had a stripe of heavier come through the Midlands on the 00z run. In other words, it'll change; Lol.
 
1300m said:
In my opinion there is zero correlation between this event and the one earlier in December. I wasn't around then, but it was very obvious with the extreme jet-induced lifting that models were going to under predict the precipitation on the northwest side of the precipitation shield. This is an entirely different situation. If QPF increases, it'll be because the wave becomes stronger as it gets sampled better. As I discussed last night, the difference between significant precipitation and bone dry is really down to subtle interaction with the various pieces of energy and the 12z Euro today is only very slightly different than the 12z Euro yesterday at H5. This could go either way, but with so much energy flying around, it's honestly going to be hard for it not to interact more than what a lot of the 12z guidance today is showing. This one is a long, long way from being settled. In fact, the fun has really just begun!
Click to expand...
Ok. I'll stay tuned and see what happens even though it looks fading right now. At least for around ATL
 
LithiaWx said:
There is a significant chance of disruptive ice in ATL. The signals are clear to me that we have an ice storm coming. It’s just a matter of how severe and how far south and west it can go.
Click to expand...
U would want more sleet then freezing rain at this point!
 
1300m said:
Another thing I will also add is I am not sure how useful the ensembles are in this setup. The resolution needed to resolve these small perturbations are probably much greater than what the ensembles posess. I don't think we'll see a good model consensus until around 00z or 12z Wednesday when all the players are in the RAOB network.
Click to expand...
My goodness! That long? It's exciting but frustrating because it looks good but then it goes back to lackluster constantly. I hate these rollercoaster rides we go on with these models not being able to handle it.
 
Going to be bad when 10's of thousands (if not more) of people in Georgia and South Carolina can't watch the games on New Years due to lack of power! Not that it matters really, Bama has it all wrapped up anyway.
 
12 EPS mean, others will have better detailed maps shortly I'm sure but for my area I'll take it
eps_acc_snow_se_168.png
 
DadOfJax said:
Going to be bad when 10's of thousands (if not more) of people in Georgia and South Carolina can't watch the games on New Years due to lack of power! Not that it matters really, Bama has it all wrapped up anyway.
Click to expand...
That cold on the Euro on New Years is insane!! And nobody wants to watch Clemson lose!
 
I'd also like to note the German drops around 2 inches of QPF through the Midlands of SC. lol
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top