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Wintry December 28-29th Possible Winter Storm

Bryce- @Midlands_Wx said:
I really wish that we could get a storm that all models would agree on. LOL
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Problem is we hardly ever get that. Most of the time, the biggest storms will come from the simplest of patterns. One of the reasons why the Superstorm of 1993 was so well forecasted well out in advance.

This current setup is nothing simplistic about it. So many ingredients, and if one is off, it ruins the recipe
 
Wow, a whopping .001 here lol. I think that is equivalent to about 12 snowflakes. Does look ok for some in our board areas, northing great but measurable at least.
 
I remember the Christmas 2010 storm looked great about a week out, then it went poof and came back around on the models 48 hours out. Hope that's happening again.
 
I know that ice is extremely different than snow, but it's time that places who missed out during the storm earlier this month see at least something frozen falling from the sky.
 
Webberweather53 said:
It's somewhere in the vicinity of 0.25", not too shabby

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Thank you! So the op and ens are at odds. I Think we all have to remember, myself certainly included, that we all think about snow and how much damage a few inches can cause. Well, a .25" of ZR is definitely enough to cause some issues for sure. Specially with winds up a bit
 
Brick Tamland said:
I remember the Christmas 2010 storm looked great about a week out, then it went poof and came back around on the models 48 hours out. Hope that's happening again.
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Totally differnet scenario here Brick, this is due to supression from severe push of cold and that dries the air out when it gets that cold with a w/nw flow. I do think Raleigh may squeak out with a little more precipitation than folks to the west though
 
Webberweather53 said:
Hmm not sure where you got your maps from but wxbell is showing more than double that
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My maps are from MDA. I think I see where much of the discrepancy is coming from. I did just the 48 hour period ending at 12Z on 12/30 whereas it appears you did the 126 hours ending 18Z on 12/30, a longer period that I think incorporates an earlier wave. I redid my 48 hours to end at 6Z 12/30 and get exactly 0.10" at MCN. My 120 hour map to either 12Z or 18Z on 12/30 gives MCN close to 0.20". So, there is about 0.10" that falls before 6Z on 12/28, which I believe is before the wave being analyzed.
 
A snippet from CAE's latest discussion: (they literally put DRY in all caps)

12z guidance continues to suggest considerable uncertainty for a
possible winter storm Thursday into Friday. The last two runs of
the ECMWF are DRY. The Canadian is now DRY. Little change in GFS
model. Ensemble guidance pops show large spread. No significant
changes to forecast at this time.


The last two runs of the ECMWF and its ensemble suggest a much
lower threat with moisture and low pressure development
southeast of the area and no isentropic lift.
 
GaWx said:
My maps are from MDA. I think I see where much of the discrepancy is coming from. I did just the 48 hour period ending at 12Z on 12/30 whereas it appears you did the 126 hours ending 18Z on 12/30, a longer period that I think incorporates an earlier wave. I redid my 48 hours to end at 6Z 12/30 and get exactly 0.10" at MCN. My 120 hour map to either 12Z or 18Z on 12/30 gives MCN close to 0.20". So, there is about 0.10" that falls before 6Z on 12/28, which I believe is before the wave being analyzed.
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Actually most of that precip falls in about 24 hours, but yea I see what you're saying
 
Shawn said:
A snippet from CAE's latest discussion: (they literally put DRY in all caps)

12z guidance continues to suggest considerable uncertainty for a
possible winter storm Thursday into Friday. The last two runs of
the ECMWF are DRY. The Canadian is now DRY. Little change in GFS
model. Ensemble guidance pops show large spread. No significant
changes to forecast at this time.


The last two runs of the ECMWF and its ensemble suggest a much
lower threat with moisture and low pressure development
southeast of the area and no isentropic lift.
Click to expand...
lol it's a little too early to pull the plug on isentropic lift in the midlands especially when your right on the NW border of the heaviest precip in an overrunning event
 
Shawn said:
A snippet from CAE's latest discussion: (they literally put DRY in all caps)
Shawn whats your opinion on this for us? think we should move on to next one?
12z guidance continues to suggest considerable uncertainty for a
possible winter storm Thursday into Friday. The last two runs of
the ECMWF are DRY. The Canadian is now DRY. Little change in GFS
model. Ensemble guidance pops show large spread. No significant
changes to forecast at this time.


The last two runs of the ECMWF and its ensemble suggest a much
lower threat with moisture and low pressure development
southeast of the area and no isentropic lift.
Click to expand...
 
NAM sheared, ugly. Whoops.
 
Nice little event on the 27th doesn't look too bad, a lot of this is mixed w/ ZR & IP, maybe a dusting to an inch verbatim on this NAM run
namconus_asnow_seus_20.png
 
I am speaking about wave #2, this run sucks and is dry too.
 
Serious question what the heck is happening cause every model seems to be saysig something different from the other models just seems like craziness to me
 
I think if your looking for a big storm it's not going to happen. NAM is the NAM lol but it fits with other models so totally can't discount it.
With that being said a 1/4" of ice is still nothing to sneeze about.
 
Who remembers Jan 2000? Did that storm sneak up on us? I was in High School and remember it coming out of no where and we had 6" of snow here in Florence, SC. Even though forecasting has improved in those 17 years since then. Anything and everything is still on the table IMO.

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lol, this is simulated radar too:
namconus_ref_frzn_seus_52.png
 
The NW trend is in full force on the NAM for our Wednesday wave... What looked like virtually nothing w/ a shortwave suppressed into oblivion off the SE US coast (like our 28-29th storm has become), a few days later, this is beginning to turn into legitimate event on some NWP models. Just another reason not to throw in the towel just yet for our storm on Thu/Fri. Give it another day or two
Unknown.gif
 
Webberweather53 said:
The NW trend is in full force on the NAM for our Wednesday wave... What looked like virtually nothing w/ a shortwave suppressed into oblivion off the SE US coast (like our 28-29th storm has become), a few days later, this is beginning to turn into legitimate event on some NWP models. Just another reason not to throw in the towel just yet for our storm on Thu/Fri. Give it another day or two
View attachment 2294
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Perhaps we need a dec 27 thread

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