Already amping up too quick on previous guidance for many areas. Showing ice/sleet/rain. That storm is talked about in the Jan thread we have.
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Already amping up too quick on previous guidance for many areas. Showing ice/sleet/rain. That storm is talked about in the Jan thread we have.
Well NAVGEM stayed wet.
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Euro doesn't even really develop the coastal low
Things could always change for the best still 4-5 days out!! Merry Christmas
Snownut
Member
So this is looking like a ice event for the CAD areas?
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After model trends tonight, likely no precipitation if the Euro has it's way.
I'm not so sure this idea is off the table either. Every suite got lighter throughout the day, except the NAVGEM. People, for some reason, are following the NAVGEM closer because it supposedly picked up on that last Winter even through GA, etc faster. Lets be real! That model pretty much sucks for continental weather. The ocean, I've seen it do well. Since you know; it's a Navy model.
Even though it was ICE, I am so hurt like a kid when they find out there is no Santa!! Please trend back to moisture!!
Yes, but we have the mighty Navgem on our side!
What is a "maga cad?" One that betrays the nation?
To go with the Euro, the EPS mean is also much drier overall for 12/28-9. Not much moisture is normally available with W H5 flow. WSW flow would be much wetter.
Of course, the models have been horrible recently, which caused me to take a break. So, take any run past 3 days with a huge grain.
Of course, the models have been horrible recently, which caused me to take a break. So, take any run past 3 days with a huge grain.
Exactly Larry. The models were locked in, it seemed, 4 days out+. Now that we are even closer, no way no way.
I don't mind not getting an ice storm though. It's not fun. A rare event your way would have been cool to see though.
I don't mind not getting an ice storm though. It's not fun. A rare event your way would have been cool to see though.
06z NAM, still a sheared out weak mess with our wave. Although, it looks better than the Euro (I guess), precip starts up and you can see some mixing down at Southern GA/SC border.
Either way, the coastal is trying to pop off the GA/SC coast, but it's likely too little, too late.
What sucks the most about it, is it's a snow sounding for a lot of people, if there was better moisture.
Either way, the coastal is trying to pop off the GA/SC coast, but it's likely too little, too late.
What sucks the most about it, is it's a snow sounding for a lot of people, if there was better moisture.
Snowflowxxl
Member
6z gfs looks weak! This storm is gonna be gone by tonight’s runs. Smdh
While the precip happy GFS has "Wintry weather" again; its even drier than 06z.
DadOfJax
Member
Would not be surprised if this is the globals tendency kicking in. Losing systems in the day 3 to day 5 timeframe, only to reel them back in, is very common.
packfan98
Moderator
6z GEFS looks much better than 0z to me. Someone else can give us the individual member panels and the total accumulations later.
MichaelJ
Member
Yep, I think the trends are clear here that this one is a dud. It was never going to be a huge precipitation maker but has been taken over by the northern stream and been squashed like a bug. Unfortunately with the extreme cold press coming down like shown on the EURO, we may lose all precipitation until it warms up. Always a chance it could change back but odds are getting longer
Here’s the latest AFD from FFC:
LONG TERM /Tuesday Night through Sunday/...
A complex extended forecast period is in store for the local area.
As we begin on Tuesday night...Deep mid and upper level troughing
will be in place across the majority of the CONUS as Hudson Bay
vortex remains relentless. Such a pattern typically indicates
greater potential for cold air intrusions across the Southeast...and
this looks certainly likely as sfc pattern shows shows a strong
1040+mb arctic high already diving into the northern Plains.
With the above pattern in mind...as we look closer to home there is
indication of decent sfc convergence by Tuesday night across the
TX/LA coast as a vort ribbon helps enhance lift along the leading
edge of the aforementioned arctic airmass. As the arctic sfc high
continues to build south...moisture is expected to become elongated
across the Southeast. Deepest moisture looks confined to central
Georgia ahead of the front throughout most of the day Wednesday.
Will have to keep a close eye on exact timing vs how far north
precip shield moves in given Wednesday morning temps as well as temp
trends during the day.
The real challenge begins Wednesday night into Thursday. It first
seemed as though model guidance discrepancies were decreasing...and
then the 00z Euro arrived...completely dry. This throws a wrench in
what was some increasing confidence in a winter weather
scenario...but will not completely discount potential quite yet.
Early Thursday the parent arctic high will have migrated into the
Great Lakes region and is expected to continue east. This would set
up a strong...classical CAD event on the lee side of the
Appalachians into Georgia. In addition...moisture advection above
the sfc in the form of isentropic upglide/WAA is expected to aid in
the development of a warm layer of air above a shallow layer of cold
air at the sfc. Assuming the event unfolds...current sounding data
would suggest frozen precip /snow and maybe sleet/ potential
increasing Thursday morning into the afternoon across the northeast
mountains with the remainder of areas in the wedge seeing freezing
rain/sleet potential: areas deeper in the wedge outside of the NE
mtns will likely see more sleet and areas near the leading edge of
the wedge boundary will see more freezing rain. WAA will continue to
increase through the afternoon and evening which will eventually
promote a transition to more freezing rain and perhaps sleet across
the entire wedged area.
Main questions with this event still include: 1.Moisture
availability likely supplied by Baja Pacific trough unless
persistent polar trough cuts off feed 2.Timing and strength of
WAA along with progression thru the day/night 3.How cold sfc temps
and dewpoints get within the wedge
Many times model solutions erode CAD events too soon so beginning
Friday will side more with the Euro. In addition...Operational Euro
agrees better with ensemble data than GFS. This would argue for a
rather strong arctic front to push thru Saturday. Although this
would erode the CAD...very cold air would move in behind the
boundary...potentially allowing for some of the coldest temps seen
in a while. Meanwhile...the GFS brings a bullish slug of moisture
thru the area by Sunday...which would cause concern for rain and
snow across portions of the area. For now...blended model guidance
for the POP forecast which indicates slight chance rain and snow for
north Georgia. Regardless of which model verifies...winter does
not plan to leave anytime soon.
LONG TERM /Tuesday Night through Sunday/...
A complex extended forecast period is in store for the local area.
As we begin on Tuesday night...Deep mid and upper level troughing
will be in place across the majority of the CONUS as Hudson Bay
vortex remains relentless. Such a pattern typically indicates
greater potential for cold air intrusions across the Southeast...and
this looks certainly likely as sfc pattern shows shows a strong
1040+mb arctic high already diving into the northern Plains.
With the above pattern in mind...as we look closer to home there is
indication of decent sfc convergence by Tuesday night across the
TX/LA coast as a vort ribbon helps enhance lift along the leading
edge of the aforementioned arctic airmass. As the arctic sfc high
continues to build south...moisture is expected to become elongated
across the Southeast. Deepest moisture looks confined to central
Georgia ahead of the front throughout most of the day Wednesday.
Will have to keep a close eye on exact timing vs how far north
precip shield moves in given Wednesday morning temps as well as temp
trends during the day.
The real challenge begins Wednesday night into Thursday. It first
seemed as though model guidance discrepancies were decreasing...and
then the 00z Euro arrived...completely dry. This throws a wrench in
what was some increasing confidence in a winter weather
scenario...but will not completely discount potential quite yet.
Early Thursday the parent arctic high will have migrated into the
Great Lakes region and is expected to continue east. This would set
up a strong...classical CAD event on the lee side of the
Appalachians into Georgia. In addition...moisture advection above
the sfc in the form of isentropic upglide/WAA is expected to aid in
the development of a warm layer of air above a shallow layer of cold
air at the sfc. Assuming the event unfolds...current sounding data
would suggest frozen precip /snow and maybe sleet/ potential
increasing Thursday morning into the afternoon across the northeast
mountains with the remainder of areas in the wedge seeing freezing
rain/sleet potential: areas deeper in the wedge outside of the NE
mtns will likely see more sleet and areas near the leading edge of
the wedge boundary will see more freezing rain. WAA will continue to
increase through the afternoon and evening which will eventually
promote a transition to more freezing rain and perhaps sleet across
the entire wedged area.
Main questions with this event still include: 1.Moisture
availability likely supplied by Baja Pacific trough unless
persistent polar trough cuts off feed 2.Timing and strength of
WAA along with progression thru the day/night 3.How cold sfc temps
and dewpoints get within the wedge
Many times model solutions erode CAD events too soon so beginning
Friday will side more with the Euro. In addition...Operational Euro
agrees better with ensemble data than GFS. This would argue for a
rather strong arctic front to push thru Saturday. Although this
would erode the CAD...very cold air would move in behind the
boundary...potentially allowing for some of the coldest temps seen
in a while. Meanwhile...the GFS brings a bullish slug of moisture
thru the area by Sunday...which would cause concern for rain and
snow across portions of the area. For now...blended model guidance
for the POP forecast which indicates slight chance rain and snow for
north Georgia. Regardless of which model verifies...winter does
not plan to leave anytime soon.
BHS1975
Member
Jma still holding on
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It's not impossible we see some trend back toward moisture. Shawn was gfs colder this run?
SimeonNC
Member
I think it's quite possible we can see a trend back to moisture.
FV3 model (GFS replacement) has more precip with 0Z run than the 0Z GFS fwiw right now of course. It had some dryer runs yesterday 0Z Dec 24 and 6Z. I think 12Z had issues and it didn't load past 9 hours. 18Z was back being wetter than like this past 0Z. It'll be interesting to see how this model does going forward.
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Here is 24 hour total precip from 18z last night FV3 vs GFS. Again fwiw
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Webberweather53
Meteorologist
It's pretty obvious why the models have trended towards suppression w/ this storm, notice the trough off New England and south of Atlantic Canada, even out to 60 hours on this Euro run, is deeper. The deeper this trough gets the more confluence we see off the east coast & ultimately the more our wave gets sheared apart, & thus the more suppressed it becomes
Last 3 0z Euro runs also showcase this trend, notice the trough over New England sags south w/ each successive run as our storm became more suppressed & sheared. This trend has been ongoing for several days in the NWP models across most suites...
Last 3 0z Euro runs also showcase this trend, notice the trough over New England sags south w/ each successive run as our storm became more suppressed & sheared. This trend has been ongoing for several days in the NWP models across most suites...
It's likely this gets sheared out but I think there will still be some icing issues where there is enough moisture.
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
My question is, how in the world has the GEFS stayed so high with qpf. Heck look at the 6Z run, one of the better runs I’ve seen.
It's actually funny that the GFS is the most progressive model on the planet and yet it still has a decent amount of moisture. It's the warmest solution too. Lol
Does this also mean the severe cold could be false as well?
likely not as strong as depicted.
whatalife
Moderator
What’s funny is that a few days ago it kept showing nothing while the other models were all in...Now it’s the opposite...
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Webberweather53
Meteorologist
The reason the GFS is further NW of the Euro has to do w/ its handling of a shortwave trough currently over Manitoba, Saskatchewan, and northern Alberta. This system will determine how much suppression we observe w/ our storm on the 28-29th, the more it digs around the base of the low pressure gyre over the Hudson Bay and the slower it moves (as shown by the Euro) the more suppression we get and vis versa. The GFS is faster/more progressive w/ the shortwave in the northern stream and already has it off New England by day 3, whereas the Euro keeps it centered over the eastern seaboard, which imparts more confluence & shearing on our s/w that ultimately rips it to shreds.
packfan98
Moderator
The weird thing about the run is that the precip did go down a bit from 0z, but the snow map increased. Something seems fishy. I was hoping someone would post the ones from Weatherbell.
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
Very odd. The ensembles of GFS and CMC as well as the CMC Op and the. NAVGEM are what have kept my interest peaked.