Wintry December 28-29th Possible Winter Storm

[Clem282340]

The aloft temperatures are the issue. 850mb temperatures are 3-6C. Pronounced aloft melting layer, hence the ZR...if your depth of shallow cold air is sufficient, you will get sleet instead of ZR, but unfortunately not a SN sounding.

Thanks do you think that the upstate still in the game since after the euro move moisture south some are there still a possibility this storm shift back nw some

 

[Stormsfury]

Thanks do you think that the upstate still in the game since after the euro move moisture south some are there still a possibility this storm shift back nw some

The Upstate is on the fence. The 850mb 0C thermal line straddles just south of the NC/SC line...most likely sleet, but close enough to wriggle into snow with better rates.

 

[MSnowAtl]

The Upstate is on the fence. The 850mb 0C thermal line straddles just south of the NC/SC line...most likely sleet, but close enough to wriggle into snow with better rates.

What about Atlanta...u thoughts more ZR than sleet?

 

[Clem282340]

Thanks for the info. Is there a possibility this storm can shift back to the nw some look like the better rates move south some towards Columbia area after the euro run

 

[$alt]

For my SC friends, @Stormsfury knows his stuff. In fact, back in the day from old boards, I learned a great majority from him on SC weather.

 

[DLI4SCwx]

For my SC friends, @Stormsfury knows his stuff. In fact, back in the day from old boards, I learned a great majority from him on SC weather.

You got that right! I remember him , as you do from back then and he knows SC climate like few others do! When he speaks I pay attention, you can learn a lot from him.

 

[Stormsfury]

What about Atlanta...u thoughts more ZR than sleet?

Atlanta is always a tricky animal...seems to be on the fence with almost every storm. Based on the look, ZR/IP.

 

[Stormsfury]

Thanks for the info. Is there a possibility this storm can shift back to the nw some look like the better rates move south some towards Columbia area after the euro run

The push of cold, dry air damming into the region depicted on the CMC/EURO camp is absolutely a wicked animal. I am hoping that the push can extend into the 850mb-925mb layer and increase the chances of more IP vs ZR. KCHS right now right in that 32 line at the SFC. Being NW of that puts me at 30° with an 850mb layer eunning 6C... significant ZR sounding

 

[MSnowAtl]

The push of cold, dry air damming into the region depicted on the CMC/EURO camp is absolutely a wicked animal. I am hoping that the push can extend into the 850mb-925mb layer and increase the chances of more IP vs ZR. KCHS right now right in that 32 line at the SFC. Being NW of that puts me at 30° with an 850mb layer eunning 6C... significant ZR sounding

I believe the wedge will get stronger each run. I have seen this before.

 

[DLI4SCwx]

Anyone have the EPS and would care to divulge if it's similar to the OP?

 

[setxwx]

Anyone have the EPS and would care to divulge if it's similar to the OP?

don't think it's out yet.

 

[DLI4SCwx]

don't think it's out yet.

I think it's on StormVista already, but can't access it.

 

[Cad Wedge NC]

Anyone have the EPS and would care to divulge if it's similar to the OP?

Weak southern slider.... 850's creep into upstate SC this round.

 

[DLI4SCwx]

Weak southern slider.... 850's creep into upstate SC this round.

Thanks for the information. That's a good thing, that the 850's are sliding further south. Hope that trend continues.

 

[Clem282340]

Weak southern slider.... 850's creep into upstate SC this round.

How for south did it creep down in the upstate

 

[$alt]

Weak southern slider.... 850's creep into upstate SC this round.

Precip still gets in to make an ice storm I would assume?

 

[$alt]

EPS Control run is dry vs most other members.

 

[$alt]

^^ To go with the above; that is very telling; because the members run off the lower resolution control. So if the control is dry and even the members are wetter; we have a problem (for an ice storm).

We have members with 0.10 - 2.5 inches of precip. Wide variety... I feel comfy with the operational's idea at this point.

 

[MSnowAtl]

^^ To go with the above; that is very telling; because the members run off the lower resolution control. So if the control is dry and even the members are wetter; we have a problem (for an ice storm).

We have members with 0.10 - 2.5 inches of precip. Wide variety... I feel comfy with the operational's idea at this point.

Let's just make this thing a sleet storm...I hope we trended colder in the mid levels.

 

[EastAtlwx]

^^ To go with the above; that is very telling; because the members run off the lower resolution control. So if the control is dry and even the members are wetter; we have a problem (for an ice storm).

We have members with 0.10 - 2.5 inches of precip. Wide variety... I feel comfy with the operational's idea at this point.

yeah shawn, this is the most confident i have been since 2014 about our areas seeing freezing/frozen precipitation. I also feel very confident at this lead that someone is going to get a legit >.25" accretion ice storm..