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Wintry December 28-29th Possible Winter Storm

So according to the thread dates, the NAM should be In range soon....:weenie:....sorry... can’t help it.... i love all types of winter precipitation..., even ice storms....
 
This is a situation where it's obvious the cold is there, from the 1040+ high pressure. The GFS surface temps do not reflect the strength of the wedge or the general wetbulb/true temps. You can throw it's temperature profiles out.

On the flipside of that, the Euro is usually too warm in a CAD situation also. It has a major ice storm with temps pretty cold, along with dewpoints more than cold enough.

If there is precip in this storm, it is becoming more likely it will be a sleet/zr beast for GA/SC & parts of NC.
 
Shawn, do you see any chance of Alabama getting some ice out of this? I mean little further west? Im just wondering
 
Dang this is looking rough to say the least for the Midlands area. Need a stronger push to get more of a sleet profile.
 
DLI4SCwx said:
Dang this is looking rough to say the least for the Midlands area. Need a stronger push to get more of a sleet profile.
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We are looking at a Feb. 2014 deal again. Modeling had an ice storm through here, and luckily the core areas of Lexington, CAE, Sumter, Florence, Newberry, etc escaped with sleet.
 
DLI4SCwx said:
Dang this is looking rough to say the least for the Midlands area. Need a stronger push to get more of a sleet profile.
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I will be honest...the Midlands based on this run would likely have a better run at sleet. The inland coastal plain on this run is pretty much screwed ... with very damaging ice.
 
Shawn said:
This is a situation where it's obvious the cold is there, from the 1040+ high pressure. The GFS surface temps do not reflect the strength of the wedge or the general wetbulb/true temps. You can throw it's temperature profiles out.

On the flipside of that, the Euro is usually too warm in a CAD situation also. It has a major ice storm with temps pretty cold, along with dewpoints more than cold enough.

If there is precip in this storm, it is becoming more likely it will be a sleet/zr beast for GA/SC & parts of NC.
Click to expand...
At this rate it looks like central NC is pushing towards a more snow event
 
Last time I remember a wedge this string and models showing a major ZR in N GA...(can’t remember the year...2004 or 2005 maybe?). We ended up getting pounded with sleet! Temps fell into the teens at first but slowly warmed to the mid 20s and stayed there for the duration.


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My area will need to watch for next weekend. Actually all of us needs to watch that potential next weekend. Cold air will be established in
 
Clem282340 said:
Can this storm amp up more like the cmc was showing
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Yes, there will likely be a slight NW shift; but the CAD means serious business. I do not see any low circulation getting much North of say, Macon, GA. At best.
 
Shawn said:
We are looking at a Feb. 2014 deal again. Modeling had an ice storm through here, and luckily the core areas of Lexington, CAE, Sumter, Florence, Newberry, etc escaped with sleet.
Click to expand...
I'm hoping we can get a repeat of that again, sleet wise! I remember the news outlets, etc. hyping it up as Icemageddon. Be great to escape again with more IP or SN vs dang Ice.
 
Stormsfury said:
I will be honest...the Midlands based on this run would likely have a better run at sleet. The inland coastal plain on this run is pretty much screwed ... with very damaging ice.
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What about Atlanta...More ZR or sleet?
 
Stormsfury said:
I will be honest...the Midlands based on this run would likely have a better run at sleet. The inland coastal plain on this run is pretty much screwed ... with very damaging ice.
Click to expand...
I hope you are right man! It's worrisome seeing those ice accumulation maps.
 
I was hope maybe if we got a stronger push of cold air that all of the upstate would be just snow instead of sleet and freezing rain
 
Clem282340 said:
I was hope maybe if we got a stronger push of cold air that all of the upstate would be just snow instead of sleet and freezing rain
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The aloft temperatures are the issue. 850mb temperatures are 3-6C. Pronounced aloft melting layer, hence the ZR...if your depth of shallow cold air is sufficient, you will get sleet instead of ZR, but unfortunately not a SN sounding.
 
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