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Wintry December 28-29th Possible Winter Storm

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I'll tell you guys, there are 3-5 chances of storms even after this event. Things are really shaping up to be interesting into January if the GFS is close to being right.

We have a thread for January setup, to talk about that stuff too!
 
Shawn said:
I'll tell you guys, there are 3-5 chances of storms even after this event. Things are really shaping up to be interesting into January if the GFS is close to being right.

We have a thread for January setup, to talk about that stuff too!
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Yeah, I think this storm is just the appetizer and setting up for bigger things a few days later.
 
Shawn said:
18z Canadian:

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I recall you and I watching the Canadian during the January 2011 storm, and it perfectly nailed the storm. The other models had more ice than snow, while the Canadian had more snow than ice.

Let's say I ended up with nearly 7" with a slight glaze of ice to coat it.

The Canadian also initially sniffed out the February 2010 storm. Keep that in mind, too.
 
ColaSnow said:
I recall you and I watching the Canadian during the January 2011 storm, and it perfectly nailed the storm. The other models had more ice than snow, while the Canadian had more snow than ice.

Let's say I ended up with nearly 7" with a slight glaze of ice to coat it.

The Canadian also initially sniffed out the February 2010 storm. Keep that in mind, too.
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Well, the Canadian is much different at h5 with our wave versus other modeling. If it's right, a lot more people will be sn and ip than zr that will be in the southern midlands, coastal areas, and southern georgia.
 
Ruh roh, GEFS is slightly wet for it's mean for some:
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DadOfJax said:
Going to be bad when 10's of thousands (if not more) of people in Georgia and South Carolina can't watch the games on New Years due to lack of power! Not that it matters really, Bama has it all wrapped up anyway.
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Car battery, and an inverter if you don't have a generator. Be sure you have some way to heat up food. Camp stove, whatever. Eating cold out of the can, if you have any food in the house, for a week to 10 days gets old, lol. Stores won't be open, and people in Apts will be in dire straights if they get over an inch in a city.
GaStorm said:
Hoping the CMC will set the trend. Need to avoid the ice. Plus Tony will get his sleet if it's right lol.
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You've got to dance with the z devil to get an epic sleet storm, lol. I'd much rather get snow to turn to sleet like the 4 incher in Atl back in the late 70's. One like this could move back and forth during the whole event, and I love that another is on it's heels for early week. We could get another 3fer if we are lucky. Saw one of those down here in the 90's, where we had a minor zr event, then a middling mixed event, then a nice finisher of heavy sleet and snow a few days away from each other. The stuff from each storm was still there for the next. Every once in a while nature gives something for each kind of lover...thou I've never met a zr lover.
 
dsaur said:
Yeah, of all of us they know not to take a strong cad lightly. I've seen bad times with a less powerful high providing the cold. A good one goes well into Ala, lol. And this could be a good one.
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I agree and one of the biggest things I look for when it comes to the strength of the wedge is 10m (sfc) winds. Pressure chart yes, but winds are more realistic imho. The NE fetch goes into Bama and all the way to the FL panhandle
 
The high resolution global German model (DWD-ICON) held serve, and produced a big, snow/ice storm for the Carolinas & GA, a coastal low developed off the mid-atlantic coast and dropped significant snow along the I-95 corridor. It's much further NW of most guidance atm.
Gave areas in/around Fayetteville, NC accumulating snow w/ the system on the 27th
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1300m said:
With the Jan system this year it was the most amped (and warmest) and held serve. I believe it picked up on that trend even before the NAM did.
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Yeah, I definitely noticed, the model is pretty respectable. Worth mentioning that the German model's resolution is highest of any global model atm (even higher than the ECMWF) and its slow physics scheme is imported from ECMWF.
 
Do we have any verification scores for at least precipitation amounts/verification / 500mb or something for German Model?
 
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Oh believe me, FFC used to be worse with conservatism, I actually think they sometimes get too bold now but the bottom line is, unless we see a lot of change from the models, that forecast will change...

I just hope the CMC is right as I really don't want an ice storm, but I'd like to see sleet. I'd be good with a glaze too but anything much more than that will be a headache.
 
NAM by 84, showing our moisture and icy spots around N.LA
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
Oh believe me, FFC used to be worse with conservatism.
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FFC tends to be conservative because so many schools/businesses/organizations in metro Atlanta - heck, even here in Athens - link their inclement weather policies directly to NWS watches/warnings (at least that was the case when I was responsible for risk management at a corporate travel company in Atlanta from 2001-2008). In fact public school districts tend to use such NWS advisories as the sole trigger for class cancellations...so you better be danged sure you're right if you make a prediction that disrupts the lives and commerce of a metroplex containing six million people. I don't envy their job one single bit.
 
So, for my Midlands of SC friends. This is the German model output for Lexington, SC. This should give you an idea of a worst case scenario for your areas if it were to verify: 1.41 inches of liquid as icy.


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Yellow Snow said:
FFC tends to be conservative because so many schools/businesses/organizations in metro Atlanta - heck, even here in Athens - link their inclement weather policies directly to NWS watches/warnings (at least that was the case when I was responsible for risk management at a corporate travel company in Atlanta from 2001-2008). In fact public school districts tend to use such NWS advisories as the sole trigger for class cancellations...so you better be danged sure you're right if you make a prediction that disrupts the lives and commerce of a metroplex containing six million people. I don't envy their job one single bit.
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There are some counties that are on school break
 
The NAM is agreeing that cold will not be an issue for most areas, even Coastal SC & Southern GA. Bad signs, unless you want a ZR monster.
 
1300m said:
That would go along with what I was saying earlier about the model resolution needed to try and resolve all the vorticity. Let's see if it holds haha!
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Check out the images from the nam I posted. That screams wedge. And building in
 
Shawn said:
So, for my Midlands of SC friends. This is the German model output for Lexington, SC. This should give you an idea of a worst case scenario for your areas if it were to verify: 1.41 inches of liquid as icy.


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What about the Anderson sc area
 
No offense to anyone on here , but most of you were not born yet, but the January 8th ice storm of 1973 in ATL and NGA was utterly epic and possibly may never be repeated again..26 degrees for a week, and continuous waves of rain..Deforestation was massive, power out at my parents house for 17 days and no water..I have had a lot of Champagne tonight but will never forget that one even when I am drooling in a nursing home...LOL
 
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