Stormsfury
Member
Seems so but less QPF. GEM still has the ZR almost down to GA/FL border for a time. Still around the same cold as 12z
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Seems so but less QPF. GEM still has the ZR almost down to GA/FL border for a time. Still around the same cold as 12z
This may end up being a nuisance or non-event but I'm certainly not sold on that just yet... it was just a few days ago the GFS was showing a cutter and now flat less amped system, hence much drier. Just seems I've seen this song and dance before with the models.
Nice. Ya like we talked about before I just don't think this is going to have copious amounts of qpf. But with ice it doesn't matter
Stormsfury
Member
Yep. I still get a significant thump. The offshore low looks like some heavier NW precip develops on the SFC low
Not sure about convective feedback on the GEM.
Just looked at the 00z ICON, and it's drier too and starts precip much earlier (possibly from wave 1 and wave 2 doesn't look aa potent but still very icy in my realm.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
We need the trough south of New England at day 3 to back off a little and limit the confluence that our s/w will experience as it nears the east coast, it's already going to face issues going over the Rockies and in an environment characterized by anticyclonic vorticity advection. This trend has been ongoing for several days and unless this changes in a hurry we could lose our storm
I think it's still very possible this backs off more, but not sure yet. Still looks good, let's see what the euro says
It's possible it shears out and it's too late to bloom
Stormsfury
Member
The cold press is definitely real. Overall a drier 00z suite but in the Carolinas, still particularly crushing. I would imagine at some point, there would generally some backing off of the press as near the event.
Yeah Shawn, seems that the ICON kinda keys a little more on the Wed/Thu wave more leaving Wave 2 more starved
Yeah Shawn, seems that the ICON kinda keys a little more on the Wed/Thu wave more leaving Wave 2 more starved
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
The shortwave which is currently over the Gulf of Alaska will have to go thru a ridge crest, over the Rockies, & towards the base of a longwave trough over the Canadian Rockies all of which will act to weaken the s/w through anticyclonic vorticity advection, column compression over the Rockies (which by definition of absolute vorticity conservation argues for anticyclonic vorticiry tendency), & confluence respectively. Throwing in another deep trough offshore New England that imparts additional confluence on our s/w will only as insult to injury and the weaker wave will move faster in the flow as a result (because its wavelength is shorter thus less planetary vorticity advection). This essentially means the weaker our wave becomes the more it begins to compete with the other storm on the 27th, which weakens it further still. Thus, there's a lot of non linearity at play here and we need some major changes in the next few days to get us back on track
Going to be interesting to see what happens for sure. I still think areas in the deep South CAD areas have a nice shot but I could see it again being feast or famine.
Stormsfury
Member
Very true. The CMC has Macon with 0.07" of ZR this cycle with 0.51 at KCHS.
12z run had 1.5" thru Dorchester County (my area) and 0.50" on the 00z cycle. Trend was drier for sure. Have a feeling the EURO will also show that trend especially if the ICON derives off some of the EURO parameters.
DT says to stop looking at the operational models and focus on the ensembles.
GFS ZR
dsaur
Member
One thing about most models and cad is they'll get it wrong to the weak or to the strong, and they'll misjudge the stickability of a good one, lol. My sounding from Goofy is 33 and rain, so that tells me it's underestimating how much cold will get down onto me
It's rare that Atl get zr and I don't. A cad cold set up like this nearly always gets at least to LaGrange, and usually beyond. And I'm afraid for me, it's underestimating. Tony
Ya this system is a really tough one. We know the wedge will build in, but how much moisture are we going to be able to generate.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Pretty much just reiterating what I said to Chris a little bit ago just with less than 280 characters so it's very clear what I'm getting at
I agree Webb this could lock out parts of the SE or maybe all of us in the SE. Heck parts of the CAD areas deep South CAD areas might have the best shot.
dsaur
Member
Now we are talking
An old time middle Ga. sleet storm, cold enough and near the weak moisture shield.
It might trend that way. Euro will be a bit more interesting tonight. LolNow we are talking
UKMET has a low that forms and up the coast (bad in between frames, hard to see what's going on). That could be a positive sign of what the Euro will show. No precip maps yet.
Could also be a late bloomer except for Eastern sections, sorta like it did at 12z.
Could also be a late bloomer except for Eastern sections, sorta like it did at 12z.
dsaur
Member
Cad is so hard to work with. Move the high just a bit, juice it, and it's maga cad, or it just ices down Augusta again, or maybe Athens. Other times it's into Ala. Hard to say until the high declares. I wouldn't want your job, lol, while we seem to be seeing lots of extremes.
Sounds actually better than 12z run for sure
Yeah, I should have noted it's more of an up the coast, ots type look, not a coastal hugger. Maybe a slightly better separation, but I noticed, the lower QPF on the Canadian, although from quickly reviewing our wave, it kept separation sorta like 12z. Odd.
I might not be on TV anymore, but always will love the challenges of weather. The wedge is a fickle creature your right.
That's what we need for sure. Coastal hugger is good but as long as we don't get a super late bloomer we should be ok
EastAtlwx
Meteorologist
Literally took a two hour nap just to wake up to all this bad news, I feel like I’m on a game-show called “ a thousand ways to lose” can’t get anything to verify in this town. And when the cold looks locked can always count on the wedge, the system trends to suppression most of the time it’s the other way around. The luck is unreal.
GeorgiaGirl
Member
I'd wait until 12z Tuesday before calling anything but frankly, if my chance is freezing rain I'll be fine if this is a miss or just a light glaze.
As been said though it's more likely this trends weaker than anything else...
As been said though it's more likely this trends weaker than anything else...
So can none of this change in 4 to 5 days???
well folks....the doc is coming in and he is saying NO looks like a swing and a miss.
And guys; it isn't a fact of "losing the storm to bring it back". It's a case of a sheared out, weak, dead wave. The Northern Stream dominates, along with other factors Webber spoke of.
with that folks.good night and Merry Christmas...NOT good trends tonight...that stream gets sheared out big time. Obviously it could change but this has always been possible.
Clem282340
Member
What happen to the new year eve storm