NCSNOW
Member
Keep seeing this front off a lakes cutter showing up. About 7 days away now. Could be fun, svr wx, flash freeze snow squalls mtns after it passes.
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Pattern December 2023
- Thread starter whatalife
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12Z ICON is on board.
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I'm watching the severe parameters on these fronts over the next few weeks. But I wouldn't be surprised if there is secondary low development closer to the Gulf that consolidates the energy to the south. GEFS ensemble members have been hinting at this for days now.12Z ICON is on board.
JHS
Member
The 18z GFS still has the low, but it is showing less snow. Some light snow on the back end west of and in the NC mountains. Not a lot of rain east of the mountains either.
Iceagewhereartthou
Member
That setup won't bring any snow east of the Apps. Low needs to track from Mobile to Savannah.
If I was a betting man, other then a quick hitting trough/cold, including the one around day 7, (that may pose a severe wx threat as well), mid dec-leading up to Christmas, looks AN to me. Pac jet looks to overextend around that time, looks like December is gonna do what it normally does during a stronger El Niño. Wouldn’t surprise me if we trend to a legit torch around this time
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SnowNiner
Member
Yeah, glancing as far as you can see on the ensembles, it's every December for as long as I can remember, warmanista. Just hope we can flip after the holiday, and it can last long enough to get a hit. 2 steps, get the pattern to change, and for it to last more than a week.
NCSNOW
Member
Always a blast when we kick off Met winter punting December every year lol. Is what it is. But its a bummer when the window gets 1/3 closed and honestly most of us crave winter weather over the hollidays. That part isnt off the table yet. But we will have a pretty good clue by next weekend, early the following week, what the pattern is gonna look like the last week of December
NCSNOW
Member
NCSNOW
Member
Hit link to see loop. He echoes Grits thinking from a few days ago.
NCSNOW
Member
Last but not least. Hopefully this will cheer up everyone who had to run the ACs today.
Brent
Member
Fwiw Larry Cosgrove is also talking about Christmas and beyond
NCSNOW
Member
What Karma! Half foot plus, apparently with some good sustatined winds.
iGRXY
Member
If I had to guess, I’d say we see a flip towards the last week of December. It’s just getting to that point we have to drive through garbage for the next 3 weeks
It always happens later than we expect.
tennessee storm
Member
Shouldn’t be a big suprise that December was going be above normal temp wise … that was the consensus that most Mets and forecast had
SimeonNC
Member
41.5 as a low this morning. I think that was a couple of degrees below the forecast low for my area.
NCSNOW
Member
Noticed the Euro hasn't backed off on the front/ big storm late this upcoming weekend. But something new is it keeps it cold/seasonably chilly all the way out through 240 afterwards. GFS sends us back to AN 2 days afterwards. You can see the CFS advertising the pattern change starting Christmas eve with an ice storm then has Vodka Cold/hammer drop as we head back to work post NY day. Interesting to see the ensembles latter this week, if they start sniffing it out
I thought we didn’t want vodka cold. Suppression is no good.
We ALWAYS want vodka cold. Because by the time it gets here, it usually turns out to be Shirley Temple cold.
ForsythSnow
Moderator
Our 42 turned into 36. Seems to be a widespread colder than forecast.
The Euro ensembles aren’t really on board with keeping things seasonable. After the quick chilly shot after the weekend storm, it really wants to keep things mild, but you can start to see the pattern change begin to unfold at the end of the run as a ridge starts to go up out west and a split flow begins to set up.
SnowNiner
Member
No cap. Lol. I want it vodka, bottled in bond cold as long as possible. Barney purples all in the Carolinas. The colder it is, the longer window you seem to have of cold that can do work IMO.
tennessee storm
Member
It would be so dry … all you feel would be static electricity
JHS
Member
Yep. Anything below about 20 degrees is too cold. 27-30 degrees is perfect for snow.
Here in Georgia, I'll take my chances with vodka cold and a juiced up STJ.
tennessee storm
Member
Usually don’t work together lol
Windergawx
Member
deeps breaths folks it will happen at some point.. maybe 2 more weeks!
I wasn’t expecting to have ice on my truck.
Neither does the usual 33 and rain lol.
Should be a nice event for the upslope factories with some slight potential for some *unknown precip* showers to escape containment for us mortals in the piedmont- with higher latitudes favored as per usual
tennessee storm
Member
Yeah but seriously I take my chances with that scenario lol
The EURO is looking more and more interesting for our western SE and mountain peeps.
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Yeah the euro went way NW at 0z but came back south at 12z.
Euro is a BIG severe weather threat for the Carolina’s
W
WSW
Guest
For the 10th?
Yes that timeframe. Wedge boundary, huge mid level wind field, large amounts of the low level shear and a negatively tilted trough. Pretty high end look right there. Instability is always in question but as usual in the winter it only takes a 100+ joules of cape
JHS
Member
You do not even need lightning either to get tornadoes around here. Heavy showers will get the job done if we have enough shear. Feb 1997 and Jan 2007 are good examples of that. The Spartanburg tornado in Feb 2020 had little to no lightning if I remember correctly.