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Pattern December 2023

JHS said:
It looks like the drought will go on in much of the Carolinas for a while. The GFS just keeps getting drier and some of us may not get a drop out of this event. VA also dry too. Still in a LaNina pattern and I think a lot of winter forecasts are in trouble.
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That’s because you live in SC.
 
RainlessSnowless & Grumpy said:
To be fair they all have cut back for the areas that need it in mine and his area. I know this is just a localized area and the southeast is starting to feel the effects of El Nino but so far getting it to rain here is like pulling g teeth. Reminds me of snow the closer in you get. Totals get slashed until there's very little if any
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I get that and yes I know that GSP cut back totals some. However, there’s a big difference in cutting back totals and proclaiming that there won’t be a drop and that we’re still in a La Niña pattern like was stated.
 
This weekends system is drying up quick for many of us. For Atlanta, NWS FFC had a widespread 2-3 inches forecast as of yesterday morning. Now we may be lucky to get a half inch.
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Typical cold season split this weekend. Dynamics to our north and west so one axis of better rain along and west of the apps, richer air and higher cape pinned to the Gulf leads to a 2nd axis of heavy rain there. In the middle its scraps. Some areas will still walk away with a decent rain .5-.75 but more the exception than the rulenam3km_apcpn_eus_20.png
 
SD said:
Typical cold season split this weekend. Dynamics to our north and west so one axis of better rain along and west of the apps, richer air and higher cape pinned to the Gulf leads to a 2nd axis of heavy rain there. In the middle its scraps. Some areas will still walk away with a decent rain .5-.75 but more the exception than the ruleView attachment 138278
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If only it was 33 degrees it’d be perfect
 
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SD said:
Yep I was thinking this morning how brutal it would be around here if we had a cold airmass in play and this was snow
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Its happened before a few times. How the term Carolina split came to be. Usually its when the low is jumping to the coast to start forming a new low and turns into a raging noreaster.
Im at .10 so far, but maximizing every drip of now fog induced moisture, ground is soaked. Doesnt take a lot with these low sun angle short days.
 
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Well, this graphic will age like uncovered avocado slices. Overheard a man walking in to Lowe's today on his phone. "I thought it was going to be pouring rain. If I'd had known it was going to be dry, I would have worked on my outside chores...", he said.

Why do we even pay for a NWS to forecast? Just collect the data and leave the forecasting up to private companies.
 
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