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Pattern December 2023

After this weekend storm and a couple nights below freezing at the start of the week it looks like mid 30s at night and mid 50s for highs maybe right up through Christmas. At least it's not 2015 again. Unless we manage to find a way to burn the last week of the month we may escape with just +1 or +2 for the month.
 
iGRXY said:
Expecting anything in December (specifically anything before Christmas) during an El Nino was fools gold. This looks to exactly like what December was expected to be all along.
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Just from my life experience, it's rare to see snow before the first of the year in Upstate SC.
 
RainlessSnowless & Grumpy said:
That would do it. We have to get cross polar to get cold back over here quick. We can't sustain a decent pattern long enough to get homegrown cold in Canada before the Pac fire hoses it out. Seems like that's been the theme for years now. But even the -EPO seems to be poorly tilted and dumps in the west anymore.
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Yep. Even if we get a Aleutian low/+PNA, it wouldn’t deliver adequate cold, because while we may not bear the brunt of the +anoms, northern tier/Canada will, even Alaska/NW territories are gonna be on fire relative to average, the snow means for the NW territories on ens means are absolutely pitiful.
 
RainlessSnowless & Grumpy said:
After this weekend storm and a couple nights below freezing at the start of the week it looks like mid 30s at night and mid 50s for highs maybe right up through Christmas. At least it's not 2015 again. Unless we manage to find a way to burn the last week of the month we may escape with just +1 or +2 for the month.
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With the Pacific jet getting strong next week, I wouldn’t be shocked to see modeled temperatures start to rise starting late next week and we end up with a lot of 60s the week leading up to Christmas
 
Of all the analogs to tie the record high today from we got the lone one that barely snowed the entire winter... ?
 
GoDuke said:
Please discuss accordingly
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It's a very dynamic storm. I definitely could see a stripe from NC/TN mountains up through the western parts of Virginia, a good bit of WV into Maryland. The Mid-Atlantic crew at americanwx are getting stoked for at least something to talk about.:D
 
It's like Dec week 1.. I've been here and back there for yrs. No one knows what next week has in store... models might say precipitation likely, but the form isn't known. I love snow and tornados! It will happen one day guaranteed



Enjoy your life and send most models to ?
 
GoDuke said:
Please discuss accordingly
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basically


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GFS has been trending colder for Sunday as precip ends. No doubt the mountains will get some snow, but now the latest 6z GFS showing some token flakes for the valleys in east Tennessee and far north Georgia as well. When I look at the accumulation maps on COD, I think of the 10:1 maps as how much will fall, and the kuchera maps as how much will actually stick. Could be gone by 12z but nice to see the first flakes of the season showing up inside 48 hours.

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URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
156 PM EST Sat Dec 9 2023

VAZ507-100300-
/O.NEW.KLWX.WS.A.0002.231211T0000Z-231211T1200Z/
Northern Virginia Blue Ridge-
156 PM EST Sat Dec 9 2023

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations in excess
of 5 inches are possible. Winds could gust as high as 45 mph.

* WHERE...Northern Virginia Blue Ridge.

* WHEN...From Sunday evening through Monday morning.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous
conditions could impact the morning commute. Gusty winds could
bring down tree branches.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Rain will change to snow Sunday evening and
continue through the overnight.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation.
 
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