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Pattern December 2023

12Z ICON is on board.

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Wild Weather Monger said:
12Z ICON is on board.

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I'm watching the severe parameters on these fronts over the next few weeks. But I wouldn't be surprised if there is secondary low development closer to the Gulf that consolidates the energy to the south. GEFS ensemble members have been hinting at this for days now.
 
The 18z GFS still has the low, but it is showing less snow. Some light snow on the back end west of and in the NC mountains. Not a lot of rain east of the mountains either.
 
If I was a betting man, other then a quick hitting trough/cold, including the one around day 7, (that may pose a severe wx threat as well), mid dec-leading up to Christmas, looks AN to me. Pac jet looks to overextend around that time, looks like December is gonna do what it normally does during a stronger El Niño. Wouldn’t surprise me if we trend to a legit torch around this time38BED276-19D2-46D3-983B-7759FC3EAA54.pngA4C3FB4E-366E-4B83-B26C-DF57F3FFDEBC.png
 
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Myfrotho704_ said:
If I was a betting man, other then a quick hitting trough/cold, including the one around day 7, (that may pose a severe wx threat as well), mid dec-leading up to Christmas, looks AN to me. Pac jet looks to overextend around that time, looks like December is gonna do what it normally does during a stronger El Niño. View attachment 138309View attachment 138310
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Yeah, glancing as far as you can see on the ensembles, it's every December for as long as I can remember, warmanista. Just hope we can flip after the holiday, and it can last long enough to get a hit. 2 steps, get the pattern to change, and for it to last more than a week.
 
Always a blast when we kick off Met winter punting December every year lol. Is what it is. But its a bummer when the window gets 1/3 closed and honestly most of us crave winter weather over the hollidays. That part isnt off the table yet. But we will have a pretty good clue by next weekend, early the following week, what the pattern is gonna look like the last week of December
 
iGRXY said:
If I had to guess, I’d say we see a flip towards the last week of December. It’s just getting to that point we have to drive through garbage for the next 3 weeks
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Shouldn’t be a big suprise that December was going be above normal temp wise … that was the consensus that most Mets and forecast had
 
Noticed the Euro hasn't backed off on the front/ big storm late this upcoming weekend. But something new is it keeps it cold/seasonably chilly all the way out through 240 afterwards. GFS sends us back to AN 2 days afterwards. You can see the CFS advertising the pattern change starting Christmas eve with an ice storm then has Vodka Cold/hammer drop as we head back to work post NY day. Interesting to see the ensembles latter this week, if they start sniffing it out
 
NCSNOW said:
Noticed the Euro hasn't backed off on the front/ big storm late this upcoming weekend. But something new is it keeps it cold/seasonably chilly all the way out through 240 afterwards. GFS sends us back to AN 2 days afterwards. You can see the CFS advertising the pattern change starting Christmas eve with an ice storm then has Vodka Cold/hammer drop as we head back to work post NY day. Interesting to see the ensembles latter this week, if they start sniffing it out
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I thought we didn’t want vodka cold. Suppression is no good.
 
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