Pattern December 2023

[winterwx]

Forecasted low was 39 for me last night but it got down to 32. Even the short range models have had me warmer than it has really been the past month or so.

 

[Rain Cold]

I thought we didn’t want vodka cold. Suppression is no good.

We ALWAYS want vodka cold. Because by the time it gets here, it usually turns out to be Shirley Temple cold.

 

[ForsythSnow]

Forecasted low was 39 for me last night but it got down to 32. Even the short range models have had me warmer than it has really been the past month or so.

Our 42 turned into 36. Seems to be a widespread colder than forecast.

 

[Chazwin]

Noticed the Euro hasn't backed off on the front/ big storm late this upcoming weekend. But something new is it keeps it cold/seasonably chilly all the way out through 240 afterwards. GFS sends us back to AN 2 days afterwards. You can see the CFS advertising the pattern change starting Christmas eve with an ice storm then has Vodka Cold/hammer drop as we head back to work post NY day. Interesting to see the ensembles latter this week, if they start sniffing it out

The Euro ensembles aren’t really on board with keeping things seasonable. After the quick chilly shot after the weekend storm, it really wants to keep things mild, but you can start to see the pattern change begin to unfold at the end of the run as a ridge starts to go up out west and a split flow begins to set up.

 

[SnowNiner]

We ALWAYS want vodka cold. Because by the time it gets here, it usually turns out to be Shirley Temple cold.

No cap. Lol. I want it vodka, bottled in bond cold as long as possible. Barney purples all in the Carolinas. The colder it is, the longer window you seem to have of cold that can do work IMO.

 

[tennessee storm]

No cap. Lol. I want it vodka, bottled in bond cold as long as possible. Barney purples all in the Carolinas. The colder it is, the longer window you seem to have of cold that can do work IMO.

It would be so dry … all you feel would be static electricity

 

[JHS]

It would be so dry … all you feel would be static electricity

Yep. Anything below about 20 degrees is too cold. 27-30 degrees is perfect for snow.

 

[Wild Weather Monger]

I thought we didn’t want vodka cold. Suppression is no good.

Here in Georgia, I'll take my chances with vodka cold and a juiced up STJ.

 

[tennessee storm]

Here in Georgia, I'll take my chances with vodka cold and a juiced up STJ.

Usually don’t work together lol

 

[Windergawx]

deeps breaths folks it will happen at some point.. maybe 2 more weeks!

 

[EmersonGA]

Our 42 turned into 36. Seems to be a widespread colder than forecast.

I wasn’t expecting to have ice on my truck.

 

[Wild Weather Monger]

Usually don’t work together lol

Neither does the usual 33 and rain lol.

 

[ILMRoss]

Should be a nice event for the upslope factories with some slight potential for some *unknown precip* showers to escape containment for us mortals in the piedmont- with higher latitudes favored as per usual

 

[tennessee storm]

Neither does the usual 33 and rain lol.

Yeah but seriously I take my chances with that scenario lol

 

[Wild Weather Monger]

The EURO is looking more and more interesting for our western SE and mountain peeps.

 

[BullCityWx]

Yeah the euro went way NW at 0z but came back south at 12z.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Euro is a BIG severe weather threat for the Carolina’s

 

[WSW]

Euro is a BIG severe weather threat for the Carolina’s

For the 10th?

 

[Myfrotho704_]

For the 10th?

Yes that timeframe. Wedge boundary, huge mid level wind field, large amounts of the low level shear and a negatively tilted trough. Pretty high end look right there. Instability is always in question but as usual in the winter it only takes a 100+ joules of cape

 

[JHS]

Yes that timeframe. Wedge boundary, huge mid level wind field, large amounts of the low level shear and a negatively tilted trough. Pretty high end look right there. Instability is always in question but as usual in the winter it only takes a 100+ joules of cape

You do not even need lightning either to get tornadoes around here. Heavy showers will get the job done if we have enough shear. Feb 1997 and Jan 2007 are good examples of that. The Spartanburg tornado in Feb 2020 had little to no lightning if I remember correctly.