None of the ensembles are and quite frankly, I am surprised. I really thought that with the strong El Niño, that a well above average first half of December was pretty much a lock. Yes there’s definitely some mild days in there, but there’s also some average to slightly below days in there as well. Also something else that im seeing that I really like is that cold air continues to build in Canada and it’s not getting flooded with Pacific air.
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Pattern December 2023
- Thread starter whatalife
- Start date
There's a tendency to reduce an unquantifiable body down to a series of index values and analogs. While that's helpful and can often provide a general guide, there is a lot more about the atmosphere and climate that we don't understand than what we do understand.
I think there's something to the fact that almost the entire ocean is above normal. I think there's something to the fact that the warmest anomalies are migrating west. I think there's something to the fact that we're in a generally warmer climate now.
Anyway, there's a lot going on.
tennessee storm
Member
That probably jus going set up a suppresion pattern. Down the road more likely …. We don’t need a true artic air mass
This is also not a canonical Strong El Nino. Looking at the surface temperatures rather than the anomalies, most of the heat is centered just east of the dateline, much further west than the Super El Nino of 2015-16 or 1997-98.
The Westward shift of the temperatures creates a tendency for tropical forcing to be further west, much like a Modoki or Central El Nino of 2009-10. Those Ninos tend to be blockier in nature, which we are already seeing set up with the -NAO in early December.
Agreed! Warm oceans = cold continents -JB
That’s why I always prefer getting cold air to build up over Canada to tap into as opposed to a long duration cross polar flow from Siberia. Typically if we’re depending on an airmass of Siberian origin, then we run the strong risk of all the energy and moisture getting squashed deep down into the GOM… that happens less often with “homegrown” cold air masses
strongwxnc
Member
Yup. Got to roll the dice and hope sometimes bites when the cold does push south.
W
WSW
Guest
The NW flow or upslope is what gives places like Wise/Norton in far SW VA a good portion of their snow totals. Wise averages 47 inches a Winter and in the higher elevations its more like 70+.
JHS
Member
It looks like the drought will go on in much of the Carolinas for a while. The GFS just keeps getting drier and some of us may not get a drop out of this event. VA also dry too. Still in a LaNina pattern and I think a lot of winter forecasts are in trouble.
I actually had some snow mix in with rain on my drive to school this morning!
Shaggy
Member
Dew point has gone from 38 up to 56 in just the last couple of hours it's already very juicy outside this has a feel of an over performer for the coastal areas tonight and tomorrow
Forevertothee
Member
Shaggy
Member
I've gone from 40/38 this morning now being 72/60
JHS
Member
A deep-layer SWLY flow with a right entrance region of upper
divergence associated with a 120-140 kt 300-mb jet will be the main
source of forcing. Isentropic lift along a strengthening warm front
should produce widespread convection across the Deep South starting
early Saturday morning. Unfortunately, the result is that confidence
on PoPs Saturday is on the low side. The 12z guidance has trended
toward the 06z GFS in that area of upstream convection/heavy
rain across central AL/GA robbing moisture transport into our
area. Overall, QPF has been cut back significantly, especially in
the northeastern half of the forecast area. Despite the trends,
there is still a chance the models are struggling with convective
feedback issues, and we could still have pretty decent coverage of
rain showers thru the day. So have only trimmed back PoPs slightly,
mostly along and north of I-40. With that said, if heavy rain does
form to our SW, we could see a pronounced lull in precip Saturday
aftn. As the in-situ wedge weakens, temps should warm into the upper
50s to lower 60s, despite cloudy skies and periods of light rain.
GSP cutting way back now on precip. At least it'll be warm for a few days.
divergence associated with a 120-140 kt 300-mb jet will be the main
source of forcing. Isentropic lift along a strengthening warm front
should produce widespread convection across the Deep South starting
early Saturday morning. Unfortunately, the result is that confidence
on PoPs Saturday is on the low side. The 12z guidance has trended
toward the 06z GFS in that area of upstream convection/heavy
rain across central AL/GA robbing moisture transport into our
area. Overall, QPF has been cut back significantly, especially in
the northeastern half of the forecast area. Despite the trends,
there is still a chance the models are struggling with convective
feedback issues, and we could still have pretty decent coverage of
rain showers thru the day. So have only trimmed back PoPs slightly,
mostly along and north of I-40. With that said, if heavy rain does
form to our SW, we could see a pronounced lull in precip Saturday
aftn. As the in-situ wedge weakens, temps should warm into the upper
50s to lower 60s, despite cloudy skies and periods of light rain.
GSP cutting way back now on precip. At least it'll be warm for a few days.
To be fair they all have cut back for the areas that need it in mine and his area. I know this is just a localized area and the southeast is starting to feel the effects of El Nino but so far getting it to rain here is like pulling g teeth. Reminds me of snow the closer in you get. Totals get slashed until there's very little if any