• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Pattern December 2023

SD said:
Not sure that sfc-925 will play along but if we can get enough LL cold to hop the mountains there's a shot
Click to expand...
If it had dug another 75 miles, we would've had something this run, imo. It's enough to keep me watching. Only thing i'm concerned about is drying up before the cold makes it.
 
  • Like
Reactions: SD
KyloG said:
Textbook for the MA folks…ala 2010


View attachment 138250
Click to expand...
Leaning that way for sure.
gfs_asnow_neus_65.png
 
  • Like
Reactions: WSW
Week 2 of December looks warm, but worth noting, the pattern that showing up is a SPV destroying pattern, notably the +SCAND, prior to this there’s a ton of Bering sea troughing. Normally our SPV destroying patterns, are warm patterns for the SE US. End of December/early jan is lining up imo for some fun 7DC664B3-5EE5-4C40-87A9-ED05C7116FE0.png
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Week 2 of December looks warm, but worth noting, the pattern that showing up is a SPV destroying pattern, notably the +SCAND, prior to this there’s a ton of Bering sea troughing. Normally our SPV destroying patterns, are warm patterns for the SE US. End of December/early jan is lining up imo for some fun View attachment 138255
Click to expand...
we got "this time period a month from now looks really great" posts folks we are BACK
 
ILMRoss said:
we got "this time period a month from now looks really great" posts folks we are BACK
Click to expand...
West pacific forcing arriving later half of December (8/1) and persistent +SCAND signal (-NAO precursor if it returns back to +, which I doubt given the state of the SPV in the next couple of weeks) with a weaker then normal vortex, hard to not get interested in that time period. Can already see signs in the pacific at day 7 with the poleward shift/cutoff block that develops near the Arctic
 
LukeBarrette said:
On high alert trust me
Click to expand...
1701384622635.png
NW flow is always undermodeled on medium range models like the GFS. My professor has said time and time again the banding is always farther east then what they say depict. This is easily 1-3 accums (with luck in the banding department) in Blacksburg with this look.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
West pacific forcing arriving later half of December (8/1) and persistent +SCAND signal (-NAO precursor if it returns back to +, which I doubt given the state of the SPV in the next couple of weeks) with a weaker then normal vortex, hard to not get interested in that time period. Can already see signs in the pacific at day 7 with the poleward shift/cutoff block that develops near the Arctic
Click to expand...
I just looked at the MJO progression and I think you’re right. It looks like we’re going to be going into strengthening -NAO/-AO/+PNA combo at the same time that the MJO is head into phase 8/1 approaching prime climatology. That would probably the best look at that time of the year since 2010/2011 and we all know what happened between 12/25-1/12 that year.
 
LukeBarrette said:
View attachment 138256
NW flow is always undermodeled on medium range models like the GFS. My professor has said time and time again the banding is always farther east then what they say depict. This is easily 1-3 accums (with luck in the banding department) in Blacksburg with this look.
Click to expand...
This NWF thing is still a foreign concept to me. Being from the SC midlands, NWF = no precipitation, no clouds and relatively mild temperatures.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top