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Pattern December 2023

Theme off the 12Z GFS and Canadian Op is we warm up some and Rain Fri-Mon, Then go back below normal out through 240 on the Can Op and 360 on the GFS. But boy is the rainy/ cloudy wx coming. Hope everyone is ready for the Big Wet inbound this winter. See what the euro 12Z cooks up. Its 0z posted above is by far the most qpf compared to the other 2 ops.
 
STJ
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tractor girl said:
Bring it, we need it
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I knew you would like this setup! Gulf low after gulf low for the next 14 days. Throw some sub zero 850's in from the north and someone in the southeast is going to score big time! If this continues in to January, we are all going to get in on the action, I think.
 
Thinking our first legit move into a wintry pattern with some potential will be in late December to early January (Dec 20 - Jan 10). During this time, tropical forcing should progress thru the Eastern Pacific > Americas > Africa > W Indian Ocean (MJO 8-1-2), and global AAM should rise into positive numbers mid-late Dec. Those should combine with the background El Nino state to produce -EPO / +PNA episodes along with an undercutting subtropical jet at times. In addition, over the last several days, the Ext Euro has been forecasting the Strat PV to go into, and remain, in a weakened state into early Jan. Along with the MJO progression and background El Nino & -QBO, this would also help with high latitude blocking potential.

Here is an MJO forecast which considers both the standard MJO signal, but in addition, the current 120-day signal (i.e. the background base tropical forcing pattern). See "Total" in the "Summary of all modes" section at this link: https://ncics.org/portfolio/monitor/mjo/RMM/. It has the MJO entering Phase 8 on Dec 15 > Phase 1 on Dec 23 > Phase 2 on Jan 9.

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And here are the forecasted below normal zonal winds at 10mb in the Strat PV on the Ext Euro

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2 close calls starting day 10 on the 18z evening wx news cast (GFS). Both a swing and a miss. But we connect Dec 13 ,last frame.
Save the caveats, Its all there is to see for the moment. Only thing the GFS is good for and why they run it 4x a day.
 
weatherfide said:
I knew you would like this setup! Gulf low after gulf low for the next 14 days. Throw some sub zero 850's in from the north and someone in the southeast is going to score big time! If this continues in to January, we are all going to get in on the action, I think.
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I was just thinking it looks like a set up for the rare, for Ga., Dec surprise. Moisture going by underneath, and lobes of cold air dropping in. Timing is rare, so Dec ip/sn are rare, but rare does happen from time to time to confound us all, lol. Edit: My point forecast for Tues night is only 2 degrees off the coldest I saw last year. I hope that bodes well for the rest of the winter, and not like those early Dec pellets that become the only frozen I'd see for the year. 30 pellets after Tday, and that's it for the winter. That sucks.
 
37 degrees this morning! Feels like old times! GEFS still looks good for a ton of rain over the next week and a half, especially I-20 and south. Need to watch this for a suppression trend. The last four runs have been fairly consistent but 0Z went much farther south with the heaviest axis of rain.
 
weatherfide said:
37 degrees this morning! Feels like old times! GEFS still looks good for a ton of rain over the next week and a half, especially I-20 and south. Need to watch this for a suppression trend. The last four runs have been fairly consistent but 0Z went much farther south with the heaviest axis of rain.
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If it behaves like the last few El Niños, we will see the globals want to trend to suppress things south in the mid range and then trend back north the closer in. Warm SSTs in the Gulf and a juiced up STJ should amp these systems up.
 
The 12z GFS is backing WAY OFF on rainfall this weekend in NC and SC up into VA. Most of us at .10 or less now. Look for the fires to make a big comeback early next week up in the mountains.
 
JHS said:
The 12z GFS is backing WAY OFF on rainfall this weekend in NC and SC up into VA. Most of us at .10 or less now. Look for the fires to make a big comeback early next week up in the mountains.
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I wouldn't fret yet, especially since the euro looks good still
 
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