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Pattern December 2023

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Snowlover87 said:
It's going to be incredibly warm this weekend. Some areas will have lows in the 60s which is very warm for December.
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That's not uncommon at all. Watching the highs, though. Any break in the precip and some sun breaking through and we may get up in to the mid 70's. That's pretty warm for December but quite welcome by me.
 
Snowlover87 said:
having low temps warmer than the average high is not uncommon ?
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It's not really that uncommon. Although it seems to happen way more frequently and more than it should these days. But this is just a pulling a random year at GSP and that year had lows of 54 m, which is probably close to the average high.
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It’s definitely going to be mild for the foreseeable, hopefully some of this rain pans out over the weekend.
 
Gonna be a teeth grinder this winter, figuring out how to get the polar jet to cooperate, come on down. I guess if we could ever cook up a deeping wave on the SS, maybe it could yank it down for a phase. But right now these waves forecasted to come, while numerous, are weak sauce. Its early, so thats the silver lining. And we knew this would be the issue that has to be resolved and caveat to possibly having to punt December Away.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Gonna go with post Christmas being a pattern change to a +PNA with chances across the SE. gefs extended especially hints at this
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How many weeks of chances are we looking at? Any guesses? Hopefully more than the 1-2 week window as usual.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Gonna go with post Christmas being a pattern change to a +PNA with chances across the SE. gefs extended especially hints at this
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That time frame seems reasonable to me though I might go right around New Year’s and a few days after. I don’t think we want the PNA to be too positive though. Remember last December when it decided to go beast mode and we ended up with vodka cold at Christmas but no moisture to speak of because everything was getting squashed into the GOM. It’s been positive since early last week and honestly I think that with the teleconnections the way they have been, I think it would have been likely we would have scored something during a better climo period.
 
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