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Wintry Dec 8-10th Winter Storm

The big questions for whether central NC gets a significant snowfall or yet another near miss:
  • How much measurable snow, if any, do we get from the front-end thump?
  • Will a warm nose appear, and when/if will the changeover to rain occur?
  • Will we get any additional snow from the backside of the system?
The front-end thump is our best chance to get any accumulation. I think we could get 1-3 inches during that time depending on when the changeover occurs. Today's model runs have trended to a later changeover and a colder high temperature on Sunday, which would give us a greater chance at accumulation. I do expect the rain to melt a lot of the snow when it changes over but less than 1 inch from NWS RAH seems like a very conservative estimate for now with some of the model guidance showing quite a bit of snow.
 
CyclonicFury said:
The big questions for whether central NC gets a significant snowfall or yet another near miss:
  • How much measurable snow, if any, do we get from the front-end thump?
  • Will a warm nose appear, and when/if will the changeover to rain occur?
  • Will we get any additional snow from the backside of the system?
The front-end thump is our best chance to get any accumulation. I think we could get 1-3 inches during that time depending on when the changeover occurs. Today's model runs have trended to a later changeover and a colder high temperature on Sunday, which would give us a greater chance at accumulation. I do expect the rain to melt a lot of the snow when it changes over but less than 1 inch from NWS RAH seems like a very conservative estimate for now with some of the model guidance showing quite a bit of snow.
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They are being extremely conservative. I’d say 2-4 across wake should be a good starting point for them. No clue why they are so low.

Every model has more than that. And 2-4 is cutting even the euro in half.
 
Rain Cold said:
Nope. Realistic.
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Never underestimate the power of a warm nose to ruin a winter storm, especially if you live between I-85 and I-95. I do think this one will start as snow for the first 6-12 hours in central NC, but models often struggle to grasp the warm nose until right before the event. I think January 2017 has made a lot of us central NC folks much more cautious tracking winter storms...
 
I've been screwed every year with these storms since the Feb 14 storm (20 miles south of clt). I have no doubt this will happen again
 
Shawn said:
There's no content there to cross post. lol
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Comin in hot
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I just don't think you can discount the consistency of the models, and how different models are showing the same thing over and over. And everything has trended colder and farther south and east with the snow all day. Yeah, I can see questioning getting a foot here, but even half of that would be amazing this early in December. I just don't see this being more rain than mostly snow and other frozen precip based on how consistent and similar the Euro, GFS, FV3, and NAM have been.
 
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