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Wintry Dec 8-10th Winter Storm

Something of note from the 00z Euro, the 850 low was significantly south in a position favorable for snow in a good chunk of NC.
ecmwf_uv850_vort_seus_7.png


The 00z run yesterday had it significantly further north.
ecmwf_uv850_vort_seus_8.png


And the 6z GFS has it even further north up into Tennessee before transferring it to the coast.
gfs_z850_vort_seus_24.png


Personally I don't think the GFS is handling the thermal profile very well and pushing the 850 low too far to the north. IF the low tracks further south like the Euro shows then I would expect things to actually trend a bit colder as we get closer to go time, assuming the system doesn't trend north. The NAM and RGEM will be incredibly helpful in determining transition zones and I don't think globals are anywhere close to what we will actually see yet, especially with such varying 850 tracks.
 
It sure does seem like South Carolina mainly north of I-85 look to see some form of wintry mix to rain then ending as snow. Not so sure it would add up much as far as accumulation goes. Hopefully it continues to trend colder
 
I have never seen anything like this 6z GEFS run for my area in the 15 years I've been looking at weather models. I know there's a lot to sort out yet with track, surface temps, column profiles, etc..., but this potential is absolutely amazing. The closest I remember is the January 2017 storm with had a ton of precip. I ended up getting 5-6 inches of snow/sleet/slop on that one. As long as I avoid a Dec 4-5 2002 repeat with an ice storm of the century, I'm good. Take a look at this.
KGSO_2018120406_gefs_snow_384.png
 
Does anyone have the GEFS individual members? I'd be curious to see what they look like if anyone does... thanks!
 
packfan98 said:
I have never seen anything like this 6z GEFS run for my area in the 15 years I've been looking at weather models. I know there's a lot to sort out yet with track, surface temps, column profiles, etc..., but this potential is absolutely amazing. The closest I remember is the January 2017 storm with had a ton of precip. I ended up getting 5-6 inches of snow/sleet/slop on that one. As long as I avoid a Dec 4-5 2002 repeat with an ice storm of the century, I'm good. Take a look at this.
KGSO_2018120406_gefs_snow_384.png
Click to expand...

Yeah even if you turn this into absolute slop and nothing but sleet, you're still looking at a very solid storm in your neck of the woods.
 
packfan98 said:
I have never seen anything like this 6z GEFS run for my area in the 15 years I've been looking at weather models. I know there's a lot to sort out yet with track, surface temps, column profiles, etc..., but this potential is absolutely amazing. The closest I remember is the January 2017 storm with had a ton of precip. I ended up getting 5-6 inches of snow/sleet/slop on that one. As long as I avoid a Dec 4-5 2002 repeat with an ice storm of the century, I'm good. Take a look at this.
KGSO_2018120406_gefs_snow_384.png
Click to expand...

Id be saving them , regardless of what actually happens that’s amazing


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Someone posted this map on the "other" forum. If you live in my neck of the woods, I have a feeling that this is probably what we will see with this system. I hope I am wrong though.

17-01-08 Winter Storm.png
 
BHS1975 said:
I’m thinking the cad was weaker with that one.


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Click to expand...

The cold high was considerably weaker and I don't think the two events are a terribly valid comparison in this regard, in fact for a good duration of the Jan 2017 storm there was a low over the Lakes lol.

namussfc2017010621.gif

The CAD forecasted in this event puts Jan 2017 to shame even after our high weakens some later in the event.
ecmwf-ens_mslpaNorm_us_6 (1).png
 
mrdaddyman said:
Someone posted this map on the "other" forum. If you live in my neck of the woods, I have a feeling that this is probably what we will see with this system. I hope I am wrong though.

View attachment 8235
Click to expand...
Yeah man that usual line that runs NE to SW from Roanoke Rapids thru Raleigh is going to be in play.... several of us, you that RC guy, snowlover, Shane going to be hurting our eyes staring at CC radar hoping it's sliding E/SE Lol
 
Webberweather53 said:
The cold high was considerably weaker and I don't think the two events are a terribly valid comparison in this regard, in fact for a good duration of the Jan 2017 storm there was a low over the Lakes lol.

View attachment 8237

The CAD forecasted in this event puts Jan 2017 to shame even after our high weakens some later in the event.
View attachment 8238
Click to expand...
Dang good point, I haven't even noticed the fact that our persky GL low isn't there for our upcoming event...... that's a victory in and of itself Lol
 
metwannabe said:
Yeah man that usual line that runs NE to SW from Roanoke Rapids thru Raleigh is going to be in play.... several of us, you that RC guy, snowlover, Shane going to be hurting our eyes staring at CC radar hoping it's sliding E/SE Lol
Click to expand...

Me2


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Webberweather53 said:
The cold high was considerably weaker and I don't think the two events are a terribly valid comparison in this regard, in fact for a good duration of the Jan 2017 storm there was a low over the Lakes lol.

View attachment 8237

The CAD forecasted in this event puts Jan 2017 to shame even after our high weakens some later in the event.
View attachment 8238
Click to expand...

I still think January 1988 is one of the best analogs we have for this event, the high placement, intensity, and juxtaposition & track of the Gulf surface low are all ridiculously similar except out gulf low will be a bit stronger this time and it's gonna be a lot warmer in this storm w/ arguably a lot less snow from RDU-CLT & points SEward

ECMWF ERA-20C MSLPa Jan 7 1988 US.jpg
gfs-ens_mslpaNorm_us_18.png
 
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